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Stock market’s record run sets stage for December gains, pros say

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Stock market’s record run sets stage for December gains, pros say

The market’s record year may have more room to run, with sentiment buoyed by recent outperformance and historical trends.

Stocks have notched all-time highs following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory earlier this month, as Wall Street remains optimistic over the incoming administration’s economic agenda despite looming tariff risks.

“Tariff threats may trigger near-term market volatility, but the fundamental backdrop remains supportive,” UBS Global Wealth Management’s Mark Haefele wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

This year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has notched more than 50 all-time closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) are not far behind.

Looking ahead, strategists suggest the market’s bull year could end on a positive note.

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“At this point, you can’t deny that everything looks positive,” Michele Schneider, chief strategist for MargetGuage.com told me on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief, adding that investors should “stay with the momentum and stay with the trend.”

Using history as a guide, the odds are for that trend to be on the upswing. According to CFRA’s Sam Stovall, December is the S&P 500’s most consistent month of gains, with the greatest frequency of advances (batting average). It also has the lowest volatility — nearly 40% below the average for the other months since World War II.

During the month, the S&P MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 indexes have outperformed other areas of the market, followed closely by the Utilities (XLU), Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), and Financials (XLF) sectors.

What sets this year apart is the election adding to the bullish sentiment. December historically ranks as the S&P 500’s second-best month of the year during election years, with an average return of 1.3% since 1950, according to analysis from Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick.

His analysis also found that strong year-to-date performance often increases the chances that investors will chase the market into year-end. Of the past 10 times the S&P entered December up more than 20%, the month of December recorded an average gain of 2.4%.

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Looking further ahead, the potential for a Santa Claus rally — which is when stocks climb higher in the final five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the New Year — could further boost returns.

Stock Trader’s Almanac editor in chief Jeff Hirsch, who explains that Thanksgiving kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns for the market, recently wrote that he has “combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%.”

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Finance

Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

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Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

Consumer confidence has plunged among traditionally optimistic younger adults amid fears for their personal finances and the wider economy, figures show.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at an overall score of minus 23 in June.

However, the analyst said this was was “misleading as, beneath the surface, there are new signs that confidence is weakening”.

Source: GfK

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest fall this month is among those aged 16 to 29, traditionally one of the most optimistic groups.

“Here confidence has dropped 11 points over the past month to minus two, the lowest level seen for two years, driven by large falls in views on both their own personal finances and the wider economy.

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“More broadly, there are now no demographic groups with a positive confidence score, including higher-income households earning £50,000 or more, who have slipped back into negative territory as of June.

“Confidence remains subdued and vulnerable to further economic or political uncertainty.”

Sourve: GfK
Sourve: GfK

Overall, confidence in personal finances over the coming year remained flat at minus two, four points lower than this time last year.

The measures of both personal finances and the economy over the previous 12 months were both slightly down, by two points and three points respectively, “reflecting the sense that things have been extremely tough over the last year for so many”, GfK said.

The only measure to increase was expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months, up two points to minus 36 but still eight points below this time last year.

The major purchase index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, remained at minus 20, four points lower than June last year.

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” said Donald Trump on social media after he announced the signing of an interim peace deal with Iran on Sunday. Under the agreement – which Iran acknowledged included a 60-day negotiating period for a final deal – the president said that following retrieval of mines, there would be a “toll free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

But many of the finer details remain “unclear”, said The Guardian. There are questions over the “exact timing of the reopening of the maritime route, who will oversee safe passage and whether any conditions will be applied”.

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Finance

Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds
Hong Kong graduates believe the city’s finance industry is its most attractive and stable sector, making them more optimistic about career opportunities than their global peers, according to a study by the CFA Institute, which trains investment managers.

The US-based institute’s “2026 Graduate Outlook Survey”, released on Wednesday, found that 71 per cent of Hong Kong graduates rated their career prospects between eight and 10 out of 10. The global average for that level of optimism was 59 per cent.

The graduates’ view of careers in finance reflected “both the sector’s resilience and Hong Kong’s continued strength as an international financial centre, which ranks third worldwide and first in Asia-Pacific”, the institute said in a statement.

The findings also indicated that young people were confident about Hong Kong’s role as an international financial centre, resilient amid global uncertainties, and strategically focused on improving skills, it said.

That confidence was “deeply grounded”, it said, with nearly 90 per cent believing they had the skills to succeed and clearly understood what employers were looking for, notwithstanding the wider adoption of artificial intelligence in the city.

“Rather than viewing AI as a threat, 38 per cent of Hong Kong graduates believe it has no negative impact on their job hunting, and 37 per cent believe it makes securing a job easier,” the institute said. “Three quarters are already actively using AI tools in their job applications, demonstrating a proactive, tool-first mindset.”

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