Key Points
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Bitcoin’s most important features probably won’t change much between now and 2036.
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XRP’s feature set will need to change and expand considerably during the same period if it’s going to flourish.
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Both coins could be good investments.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) aren’t trying to win in the same game. One is competing to be the store of value asset that people trust when governments are printing money. The other is vying to be useful plumbing inside institutional financial workflows.
During the next 10 years, those two assets are thus likely to perform very differently. Let’s examine the case for buying and holding each of them, and figure out which one is better.
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Bitcoin doesn’t need to change much to succeed
Bitcoin is one of the few cryptocurrencies that has survived for more than 10 years. Its odds of surviving the next 10 years are quite high, because the features that made it a good investment in the past are still operating on behalf of holders.
Specifically, Bitcoin’s supply is as constrained as ever. New coin issuance is cut in half on a regular schedule, and the supply is capped at 21 million coins (about 20 million already are in circulation). That isn’t going to change, which means as long as there is at least some demand, its price is biased to the upside over the long term. Its legacy as a store of value, while still in its infancy, is more likely to consolidate than peter out as time passes.
Furthermore, Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, with a majority share of total crypto market value, which means it’s the default yardstick for the whole sector. Owning Bitcoin as part of a balanced crypto portfolio is thus a bet that its prominence and dominance will stay intact even in the event of some future ugly years, just as it did in the past.
Of course, that didn’t stop holders from experiencing downturns of 80% or more, but Bitcoin’s price can fluctuate tremendously without compromising the coin’s investment thesis.
XRP’s moat isn’t as large
For XRP to win during the next 10 years as it did during the past 10 years, there will need to be wider adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) across three axes: as a payments and settlement network, as a tokenized asset management platform, and as a set of financial tools for institutional investors and traders. It’s making credible inroads in those arenas, and it will likely succeed in at least one of them.
But compared to Bitcoin, the trouble with XRP is that it simply has a lot of competition in all three of those verticals today, and there will probably be even more competition in the near future and beyond. The coin could thus bid to become the future of cryptocurrency, only to lose later on when other players encroach on its turf.
That makes it hard to believe that XRP can see its price rise smoothly without continuously winning at least some of its many competitive fights over time — and continuous execution is a very high bar to clear during a 10-year time span.
So, Bitcoin is the better cryptocurrency to invest in if you’re willing to hold it for a long time. XRP isn’t a bad pick. It’s just that it will have to face and overcome many difficult obstacles, while Bitcoin simply doesn’t need to.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
