Arkansas’ economy could grow by nearly $4 billion by 2038 if the state can double the number of graduates with STEM degrees in that time period, according to a new study released Tuesday by Bentonville-based “think-and-do” tank Heartland Forward in partnership with the University of Arkansas. 

“We know that STEM education is vital to economic performance,” said Heartland Forward President and CEO Ross DeVol. “And right now, Arkansas faces a critical shortage of STEM graduates, with nearly 58,000 open positions projected by 2028 alone. This threatens the state’s ability to compete in the knowledge-based economy of the future.”

According to the study, gross domestic product per worker grew from $86,452 in 2012 to $111,603 in 2021 in Arkansas. More than a quarter of that growth was attributable to the work being done at engineering colleges across the state, particularly in research, computer and data science and engineering. 

“If we look forward, in terms of what can happen to long-term economic performance by doubling the number of graduates in both computer science and engineering and data science and research productivity, this means there’s a need to make an investment,” DeVol said. 

It would be a worthwhile investment, he added. 

“The long-run economic benefits of doubling the number of graduates are 15 times the near-term economic impact of just operations at the university,” DeVol said. “And so to better realize these economic benefits, we need a concerted strategy to address the needs and produce more graduates within the system.”

Heartland Forward’s study estimates that if Arkansas can increase its share of engineering and computer science professionals by 1.1%, the state’s GDP would increase by 1.6% and 19,000 new jobs would be created by 2038.

If the number of those professionals grew by 50%, it could raise GDP by $2.4 billion. If the state doubles the engineering and computer science workforce, the GDP could increase to up to $3.9 billion. 

Kim Needy, dean of the University of Arkansas College of Engineering, said half of the engineers produced in the state of Arkansas come from the university in Fayetteville. The university as a whole has been supportive of the College of Engineering’s efforts to attract and retain more students, she said. 

“Currently, our graduation rate is 53%, so nearly half the students who start don’t graduate … So we’re making sure we’re putting in intervention, and we have tutoring, we have career counseling, academic advising, coaching to get students to the finish line,” Needy said. 

The university also on Nov. 12 announced its new Land of Opportunity scholarship campaign, which is currently ongoing. Funds raised will go to help low-income students bridge the gap between other financial assistance they receive and the costs to attend UA. 

“We have many poor students in the state that would love to study engineering, but can’t see the pathway on how to pay for it,” Needy said. 

But increasing the number of degree-holding engineers in Arkansas starts when students are much younger, said Arkansas Commerce Secretary Hugh McDonald. 

“We’ve also got to expose our kids in K-12. We’ve got to equip them. We’ve got to give them hands-on, work-based learning experiences, so they see how algebra, how chemistry, how math, using a measuring tape are all applied in the real world,” McDonald said. “This triggers an interest in a young student’s mind.”

And opportunities in STEM fields aren’t limited to degree-holders, said Patrick Schueck, a UA College of Engineering graduate who is now CEO of steel fabricator Lexicon Inc. of Little Rock.

“What makes success in my world, what makes success for the state of Arkansas, long-term, is having that delicate balance of educated engineers that are focused on STEM followed up by a … workforce that knows how to do to turn the nuts and lay the well down, do piping and pour concrete,” Schueck said. “It takes both; it takes a nice balance.”