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This might be New Jersey's snowiest day of the entire winter

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This might be New Jersey's snowiest day of the entire winter


Let it snow! With each passing week, our weather turns progressively colder. New Jersey’s first snowflakes of the season are now in view. And the Winter Solstice is only a little more than a month away. It is time to start thinking seriously about wintry weather. More specifically: Snow.

Here’s when to expect NJ’s first snow of the season

While pondering the many uses of “bread and milk,” I had a scientific curiosity.

I wondered if there was one day of the year that tends to be snowier than every other date on the calendar for New Jersey. Sure, there is an average “peak” to wintry weather. (In fact, there are three distinct peaks — more on that in a moment.) But can we pinpoint a single day that represents the height of New Jersey’s snow season?

As a matter of fact, yes we can.

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Methodology

To complete this analysis, I queried the Applied Climate Information System, a warehouse of weather and climate data.

I specifically looked at exactly 50 years of snowfall data, from 1971 to 2020. (An admittedly arbitrary choice for period of record, but I wanted a healthy spread of snow observations both geographically and temporally.) Approximately 675 weather stations reported snow data in New Jersey in that time frame.

For the purposes of this project, I marked a calendar day as “snowy” if any single weather station in the state reported at least one inch of snowfall on that date.

An inch of snow is more than enough to snarl traffic and force you to drag out the snow brush yet again. (Getty Images / Vadven)

An inch of snow is more than enough to snarl traffic and force you to drag out the snow brush yet again. (Getty Images / Vadven)

The Snowiest Day

There is actually a definitive answer here. With 24 out of 50 years (1971-2020) reporting snow — just shy of half — February 5th is the winner.

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And what a funny coincidence: February 5th is also National Weatherperson’s Day. The most important holiday of the entire year!

Detailed Close-up of Groundhog Sitting up and Looking Left

This is a groundhog. Not a meteorologist. (Louise Wightman)

Second place is February 13th with 23 occurrences. Third is January 21nd at 22. And tied for fourth are January 19th, January 25th, February 4th, and February 6th, all at 21 times in 50 years.

February 9 Snow

During this February 9, 2017 snowstorm, a worker clears the platform at a NJ Transit train station. (NJ Transit)

Digging into the Statistics

We can even take all the years of snow data and create a graph. This shows, for each day of snow season in New Jersey (October 4th to May 9th), the percentage of years from 1971-2020 that at least one inch of snow was reported somewhere in New Jersey.

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(Visualization: Dan Zarrow / Google Sheets, Data: ACIS)
(Visualization: Dan Zarrow / Google Sheets, Data: ACIS)

Day-to-day variability is to be expected. That is resolved by the red trendline, representing a 14 point (2 week) moving average. There are some definitive patterns noticeable here.

First, I want to point out that the dataset is basically tri-modal. Meaning there are three definitive peaks in snowstorm activity. One little bump in snowy days around mid-December, leading up to the Winter Solstice. Another occurs in mid to late January, matching with the climatologically coldest temperatures of the year — the “dead of winter”. And another peak occurs in early to mid February, including the highest bar on February 5th.

In total, 178 days out of 366 have seen observed inch-plus snow in New Jersey. That is an impressive 49% of the year in which it has snowed here.

October snow has happened on a few occasions in New Jersey, including 2011 shown here. (Getty Images)

October snow has happened on a few occasions in New Jersey, including 2011 shown here. (Getty Images)

Looking at our snow season from start to finish (i.e. left to right on the graph), it is clear that snow can fall in November. But inch-plus snow is pretty rare in NJ until December.

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There is a notable minimum value on December 24th. Christmas Eve. Only 4 of the last 50 years have shown an inch of magical Christmas Eve snow. But 11 Christmas Day snow observations have occurred. That strikes me as an odd outlier, and makes me wonder if there’s some observation bias or other funkiness with the reports here.

Christmas snow is especially magical. (Craig Allen photo)

Christmas snow is especially magical. (Craig Allen photo)

You will notice another data minimum on February 29th, due to Leap Day. 4 out of the 13 February 29ths in the survey period reported snow. That comes to about 30%, in line with other nearby dates in late February and early March.

Finally, it is notable how quickly accumulating snow chances disappear beyond the first day of Spring, around March 21st. Snow in April is about as rare as November, at each tail of the graph.

Spring snow happens from time to time, and can cause damage to budding plants. (FamVeld)

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Spring snow happens from time to time, and can cause damage to budding plants. (FamVeld)

Final Thoughts

Obviously, each winter season is different for New Jersey. And this climatological analysis in no way serves as a short-range or long-range forecast. Just a neat little investigation, proving that common sense largely matches reality when it comes to the timing of peak snow chances in New Jersey.

So stock up on the road salt, wear your pajamas inside-out, and start brewing the hot chocolate. February 5th could be a wintry day!

Let it snow: 12 things to know about winter forecasting in NJ

Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan’s weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.

Glossary of NJ winter weather words and phrases

Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

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New details released after United plane flew 15 feet above NJ Turnpike, striking pole

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New details released after United plane flew 15 feet above NJ Turnpike, striking pole


NEWARK (WABC) — New details were released about the close call at Newark Airport last month.

A United Jet flew about 15 feet above the busy New Jersey Turnpike on its approach to the runway.

The plane hit a light pole in the process and that pole hit a delivery truck.

“Low and slow,” those are the words used in a new NTSB report to describe the United flight that came close to catastrophe after hitting a light pole on the New Jersey Turnpike while landing at Newark airport.

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The report found that the flight with more than 230 passengers and crew on board was flying dangerously low at just 15 feet above one of the busiest highways in the country.

Investigators say the pilots had been given multiple runway changes in the minutes before the incident, as they descended in strong winds and were eventually told to land at Newark’s shortest runway.

The first officer warned the captain, who was manually flying the plane, that the airspeed was slow, eventually saying, “You are still slow and a little low.”

Moments later, the plane hit the light pole, which crashed down onto a delivery truck, injuring the driver.

According to the NTSB, the captain said he “heard a thump” shortly before touchdown.

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Passengers deplaned normally, but the plane suffered “substantial damage” with a gash in the side of the fuselage.

“The NTSB is gonna wanna go back and say what is it about this approach, this runway, how can we take out the possibility of error that almost led to tragedy in this case,” an expert said.

The driver’s father spoke out in the days after the accident

“Imagine that, struck by a plane, generally nobody walks away from a plane crash, nobody,” he said.

The first officer says he looked outside seconds before touching down and recalled thinking the plane looked too low above the turnpike, but at that point it was too late to change anything.

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The Boeing 767 has not flown since the incident.

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New details on plane collision on New Jersey Turnpike

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New details on plane collision on New Jersey Turnpike


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The NTSB released a report on the United Airlines plane that hit a light pole on the highway as it landed at Newark Airport. NBC News’ Tom Costello reports on what the pilots said to one another just before the collision.

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Maternal health support organization expands services to Long Island and New Jersey 

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Maternal health support organization expands services to Long Island and New Jersey 


Overview:

Community First Equity is expanding its outreach beyond Brooklyn through new partnerships and programs serving Haitian families in Long Island and New Jersey.

As many Haitian families marked Mother’s Day on May 31, Community First Equity  announced an expansion of services into Long Island and New Jersey. 

The Brooklyn-based maternal health support organization, founded by Dr. Christina Pardo, focuses on advancing health equity and connecting underserved communities with culturally informed healthcare resources and support. A major component of that work is the Haitian Women’s Birth Equity initiative, which provides culturally responsive education, services and referrals to families navigating pregnancy, birth, postpartum care and beyond.

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“ I am very proud and excited [for the expansion]. When we started the Haitian Women’s Birth Equity Initiative Brooklyn-based, it was to advocate for the needs and provide a support structure for Haitian mothers and families. And the goal was always to be able to create that support and advocacy wherever there are concentrations of Haitian mothers and families. “ Pardo told The Haitian Times.

“So being able to expand that structure that provides support and connect with local structures in Long Island and New Jersey is an incredibly proud moment to just help organizations in those areas and to provide support for moms.”

As part of its regional growth, Community First Equity announced a partnership with the Maternal and Child Health of Northern New Jersey who is launching Wombs of Ayiti. 

On June 26, Family Connects NJ, a non-profit organization and partner of  Maternal and Child Health of Northern New Jersey, will be hosting a community event, Wombs of Ayiti, where they celebrate pregnant mothers and Haitian traditions around pregnancy, birth, and motherhood.

They will offer community resources, food, face painting, and opportunities to connect with other pregnant mothers, families, and support providers. If you are interested in attending, you can register here. 

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Community First Equity has also reached Long Island, coordinating a community baby shower May 23 at St. Martha’s Church in Uniondale. In partnership mainly with Solidarité Haïtiano-Américaine de Long Island, the organization aims to provide information and resources about maternal mental health, early literacy and doula support. Additional partners included Moms Who Care, Harmony Healthcare Long Island and the Health & Welfare Council of Long Island.

For more information about Community First Equity or to volunteer, donate, or partner with them, visit www.communityfirstequity.com/.



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