Ohio
Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction: What the analytics say
Big Ten football kicks off on the shores of Lake Michigan this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against Northwestern. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.
Ohio State is still behind undefeated Oregon and Indiana in the Big Ten standings and, with the loss to the Ducks, needs to stay winning with the Hoosiers coming up next weekend.
Northwestern moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play after getting past Purdue last time out but sits 120th in passing output and 126th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring production with 18 points per game.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats this weekend.
Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.
That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.
In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 19,060 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out OSU in the other 940 predictions.
How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?
Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Wildcats.
That’s because Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
The book didn’t list any moneyline odds for the game, given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.
A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.
The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.
Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.
Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about dashed, but not extinguished just yet.
The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.
That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Penn State
- Indiana
- BYU
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Georgia
- Boise State
- SMU
- Texas A&M
- Kansas State
- Colorado
- Washington State
- Louisville
- Clemson
- South Carolina
- LSU
- Missouri
- Army
- Tulane
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When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks
There are several sign posts on the way to the start of the college football season and the ability to see Ohio State on the banks of the Olentangy again, and one of them is when single-game tickets go on sale. In that case, you rejoice a little because the ability to purchase tickets to a game of your choice is now available.
Ohio State welcomes Ball State, Kent State, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, Northwestern, and Michigan to Ohio Stadium this year, and you can now try to score tickets by going to the Ohio State football section of Ticketmaster and selecting the game you want to attend.
A quick search shows that tickets are still available for any home date if you are willing to buy resale tickets in most cases, though “The Game” against the Wolverines is much steeper in price than others. There’s a good bet that those tickets will disappear along with others, or become more expensive as the days go by, so if you were planning on trying to make that a day to remember, you might want to jump on things quickly.
The link to Ticketmaster also has the links to away games if that’s something you are interested in. The Buckeyes will travel to play at Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC, and Nebraska. Likewise, some are resale tickets and will set you back much more significantly, but there are tickets available if you want to spend the money.
Ohio State has a daunting schedule this year both at home and with away games and it’s almost a sure bet that some of these games will be hard-fought fourth quarter affairs.
Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.
Having lived with Donald Trump’s infamous and baseless insult against them — “they’re eating the dogs … they’re eating the cats” — Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are bracing for a far bigger injury.
More than 10,000 Haitians across Ohio and hundreds of thousands more around the country who had Temporary Protected Status now face the imminent prospect of deportation. The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that the Trump administration can halt those legal protections for Haitians and Syrians and resume forcing them to leave.
Justice Samuel Alito’s opinion for the court’s Republican-appointed majority curbed the power of courts to review government decisions to terminate protections under the TPS program.
“They side with him on everything that he says or everything that he does, which means there is no check and balance,” said Viles Dorsainvil, a Haitian TPS holder and executive director of the Haitian Support Center in Springfield, a town Trump catapulted into a maelstrom of misinformation about immigrants when he was running to retake the White House in 2024.
“The president has that freeway in front of him to do whatever he wants to do, unfortunately, and most of the time to a minority group of people,” added Dorsainvil, who has lived in the United States since 2020.
In a country rife with political and economic instability, Haitians returning from the U.S. are in danger of being killed or kidnapped, said Dorsainvil’s colleague at the Haitian Support Center, Rose Thamar Joseph.
“There is this perception in Haiti that if you are living here in the United States, you have money, so you are living your good life, so sending people back to Haiti will put them in real danger,” Joseph said.
Staying in the U.S. without legal status creates a different crisis.
“We received calls this morning from people saying that, unfortunately, starting on July 1, they won’t be able to go to work anymore,” Joseph said Friday.
Joseph predicted that families would be separated during the deportation process.
“We know that there will be separation,” she said. “A lot of those parents with TPS … they have kids who were born in the United States, so we know that it will happen, not for everybody, not for all the families, but it will happen,” she said.
The oncoming nightmare for the Haitian community in Springfield was, in many ways, predictable after Trump notoriously targeted them on the debate stage against then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the fall of 2024.
The Oregon Ducks and coach Dan Lanning have lost out on a top offensive lineman target for their 2027 recruiting class.
On Friday, four-star interior offensive lineman Caden Moss committed to the Ohio State Buckeyes, per On3’s Hayes Fawcett. The 6-5, 320-pound offensive lineman from Jackson Academy in Mississippi chose the Buckeyes over Oregon, Ole Miss, LSU, and Kentucky.
In his commitment post on Instagram, Moss said, “Go Bucks, I’m home.” Moss arrives at Ohio State rated as the No. 72 overall player nationally and No. 7 offensive tackle in the 2027 recruiting class, per 247Sports Composite rankings.
How Moss Commitment Impacts Oregon’s 2027 Recruiting Class Ranking
Despite the loss of Moss to their 2027 recruiting class, the Ducks are ahead of the Buckeyes in the rankings, per 247Sports. The Ducks are No. 6 in the 2027 recruiting class rankings, while the Buckeyes are two spots behind Oregon at No. 8 overall in the country.
The Ducks and Buckeyes, the way things stand at the end of June, have the two best 2027 recruiting classes in the Big Ten and are the only schools from the conference currently ranked inside the top 10. Oregon, however, has four more commits than Ohio State following Moss’ commitment to the Buckeyes on Friday.
The four Big Ten teams behind the Ducks and Buckeyes, but inside the top 20 of the 2027 recruiting class rankings, per 247Sports, include the Penn State Nittany Lions (No. 13), USC Trojans (No. 14), UCLA Bruins (No. 16), and Nebraska Cornhuskers (No. 18).
Oregon and Ohio State’s 2027 recruiting classes are very similar as they both have 11 total blue-chip commits, per 247Sports, including two five-stars and nine four-stars.
Oregon 2027 Offensive Line Commits
While wide receiver Dakota Guerrant and edge rusher Rashad Streets are Oregon’s two five-star commits in the 2027 recruiting class, the Ducks have four offensive line commits despite the loss of Moss to coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes.
Offensive lineman commits in the Ducks’ 2027 recruiting class include a pair of four-star recruits, Gus Corsair and Cameron Wagner. Three-star commits Avery Michael and Lex Mailangi also highlight the offensive line commits in the Ducks’ 2027 recruiting class.
Over the course of his four seasons as coach of the Ducks, Oregon has been known for its efficient offensive line play, building one of the best groups in the country. In the last four seasons, the Ducks have been the only school to have their offensive line named a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award.
With the commits in Oregon’s 2027 recruiting class, along with the returners that the Ducks have for the 2026 season, the offensive line looks to continue that trend heading into a year with national championship expectations.
As for the Buckeyes, Ohio State hopes that a dominant offensive lineman can help it continue to be a Big Ten championship and national title contender consistently, as it looks to avenge last season’s loss to the Miami Hurricanes in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl.
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