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Analysis: How voters shifted in Maryland and Virginia – WTOP News

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Analysis: How voters shifted in Maryland and Virginia – WTOP News


Voting trends that were seen nationally in the presidential election also appeared in Maryland and Virginia.

Stay with WTOP on air, online and on the WTOP News app for the latest local and national election developments. Sign up for WTOP’s Election Desk weekly newsletter to stay informed through Inauguration Day.

Republican Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, outperforming his results in the 2020 election, while Democrat Kamala Harris failed to do as well as President Joe Biden did in winning the presidency four years ago.

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Voting trends that were seen nationally also appeared in Maryland and Virginia.

“A lot of polls had Kamala Harris winning by eight or 10 points, but she won by five,” said Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth, while discussing the polling and election results in the Commonwealth.

Five points is the margin that Hillary Rodham Clinton carried Virginia by in 2016, which was five points below President Biden’s margin in his 2020 victory in Virginia.


There were two close races involving U.S. House seats controlled by Democrats in the 7th and 10th Congressional Districts.

“What was interesting in both the races was in almost every jurisdiction in those two districts, there was a shift of one or two points to the right,” Holsworth said. “We saw this almost uniform pattern of jurisdictions moving a little bit more toward the Republican direction than they had previously in Virginia, and that really was the story of the nation.”

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In the 7th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, Democrat Eugene Vindman declared victory over Republican Derrick Anderson with about a two-point lead.

The Associated Press declared Vindman the winner on Wednesday evening, nearly 24 hours after polls closed.

In the 10th Congressional District, which Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton is leaving due to severe health challenges, Democratic Del. Suhas Subramanyam defeated his Republican opponent, Mike Clancy, by about four points.

“What you saw in the election was that in Northern Virginia and in the big suburbs around Richmond — particularly Henrico and Chesterfield counties — the Democrats did quite well,” Holsworth said. “What you also saw was the complete collapse of the Democrats in rural Virginia.”

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Trends in neighboring Maryland

Similar patterns emerged in Maryland, even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by a 2:1 ratio.

“It’s a safely Democratic state, but the national trend of the shift toward Republicans is something we see in Maryland as well,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

Trump improved his vote share in Maryland, and Harris pulled in less than Biden did four years ago.

Eberly said the divide between urban and rural Americans was on full display.

“The education divide between those with a college degree and those without is growing, and you see it playing out in Maryland,” Eberly said. “You have these seas of red in the east and in the west, and then you have all of this blue along the urban and suburban I-95 corridor, which also happens to be where most of the folks with college degrees are concentrated.”

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Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan lost to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in the race for Maryland’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Still, Eberly noted, “Larry Hogan looks like he’s going to have probably the best performance for a Republican Senate candidate in 20 years.”

In Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. David Trone, Democrat April McClain Delaney has a very slim lead over Republican Neil Parrott.

As of Wednesday night, the race had not been called by The Associated Press.

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“In that district, Democrats should have done better,” Eberly said. “That is a district that is most competitive in off-year elections, but it’s looking pretty darn competitive in a presidential election.”

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Virginia voters to vote on measure that could determine control of Congress

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Virginia voters to vote on measure that could determine control of Congress


After months of television ads, mailings, and debates, Virginia voters head to the polls Tuesday to vote on whether to approve a redistricting measure that would radically change Congressional maps in order to favor Democrats.

The measure has the potential to determine which party controls Congress after the midterm elections this fall.

ALSO READ | Virginia redistricting vote draws national attention

Virginia polling locations will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. The election is unusual in that there are no names of candidates on the ballot. Instead, there is just one question to vote yes or no on:

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“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”

A yes vote would likely lead to a new map that would be expected to give Democrats a 10 to one edge in Virginia’s Congressional delegation. Under the current map, Democrats have six seats and Republicans have five.

Supporters of voting yes said the measure is in response to states like Texas that have gerrymandered in favor of Republicans winning House seats. But opponents who urge a no vote point out the measure would make Virginia one of the most gerrymandered states in the nation, and would create districts in which many voters don’t share common interests with each other.

The vote is expected to be close.

“It seems to me that a strong turnout effort on election day can give either side a win,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “The big challenge for both the yes and the no side is to get people who will support them if they turn out to actually do soI think anybody who is not strongly committed one side or the other is likely to stay home.”

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ALSO READ | Virginia voters to decide redistricting that could flip 4 GOP seats

Advertisements and messaging from both sides have left some voters confused. For example, both supporters and opponents of the measure have referenced Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger. She supports the measure to counterbalance Republican actions elsewhere, but in the past she has made strong statements against the type of gerrymandering the ballot measure would allow.

“Usually when people are confused, they don’t vote. Some of them do, but most of them don’t,” said Larry Sabato, the director of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Sabato said it’s tough to predict which side will win. Even though the limited polling that’s been done has given a narrow edge to the yes vote, data related to early voting may tell a different story.

“Normally, you would think given Virginia’s pretty strong Democratic lean, that this very partisan referendum would be enough to generate Democratic turnout for Democrats to win,” he said. “But I’ll tell you why people are hesitant – they’ve seen large turnouts in conservative, Republican areas. Because [voters in those areas] are mad. Their representatives are being eliminated through this process.”

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“This is going to be tied very closely to how one feels about President Trump,” Farnsworth said. “The people who don’t like President Trump will vote in favor of this amendment. The people who do like President Trump will vote against it.”

It’s not clear how many people will actually show up at the polls on election day Tuesday.

“People who were very interested in this, who were knowledgeable about the subject, probably voted early for the most part,” Sabato said.

Mail-in ballots can still be dropped off at official drop boxes until 7 p.m. on Tuesday, and if they are mailed they need to be postmarked by Tuesday and received by noon on Friday.



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Virginia Sen. Mark Warner’s daughter has died: ‘Heartbroken beyond words’

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Virginia Sen. Mark Warner’s daughter has died: ‘Heartbroken beyond words’


WASHINGTON — Virginia Senator Mark Warner and Lisa Collis are mourning the loss of their daughter Madison.

The 36-year-old died after a “decades-long battle with juvenile diabetes,” the couple said in a statement

“We are heartbroken beyond words by the passing of our beloved daughter,” the statement read. “She filled our lives with love and laughter, and her absence leaves an immeasurable void.”

Warner and Collis said they were are grateful for the loving support of friends and family and asked for privacy as they grieve.

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Virginia’s special election redistricting battle is next week and has national impacts

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Virginia’s special election redistricting battle is next week and has national impacts


Virginians are heading to the polls to vote “yes” or “no” on a ballot initiative in a high-stakes special election that could upend this year’s midterm elections.

Voters on Tuesday will decide if they want to move forward with Democrats’ redistricting plan which would significantly change the state’s congressional map, giving Democrats a 10-1 advantage instead of the current 6-5 Democratic to Republican split.

Virginia is one of many states that took a look at their congressional maps this year after President Donald Trump encouraged Republican-led states to redraw their maps ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Both parties in Virginia are pushing get out the vote efforts as early voting lags behind previous years and a huge amount of cash is flowing into the mid-decade redistricting effort.

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Here’s what to know:

Democrats try to eliminate several GOP seats

In February, Virginia Democrats finalized an agreement over how to redraw the state’s congressional map. It would lead to eight safely Democratic districts, two districts that lean Democratic and one safe Republican district.

As it currently stands, Virginia has six Democrats and five Republicans in the House.

The amendment passed by Democrats in February would temporarily bypass the state’s typical redistricting process. If voters approve the amendment through the referendum on April 21, Democrats would be able to move forward with their map.

The amendment would put in place a temporary process. After the 2030 census, the state’s standard redistricting process would resume with maps to be decided by a bipartisan commission.

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The lead-up to the election has seen an influx of spending, and The Washington Post noted that due to state election records, 95% of the total $93 million raised as of Monday came from nonprofit groups that are not required to disclose their donors.

The leading group, Virginians for Fair Elections, reported raising $64 million in favor of the referendum. About $40 million of that came from House Majority Forward, which is led by House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the Post reported using data from tracking firm AdImpact. The Fairness Project added $11.7 million to the effort. It’s backed by new Gov. Abigail Spanberger.

Virginians for Fair Elections secured a television advertisement for voting “yes” on the ballot initiative featuring former President Barack Obama. He said voting the measure through was the “responsible” thing to do.

The group that wants Virginians to vote “no” on the measure is made up of several smaller groups, including Virginians for Fair Maps. That group took in $22 million and another $7 million was raised by Justice for Democracy PAC, an anti-redistricting group, Cardinal News, a southern Virginia outlet, reported.

According to Cardinal News, the $7 million donation to the PAC was given by a nonprofit, which didn’t have to disclose its donors. However, that same nonprofit was used by billionaire Peter Thiel in support of Vice President JD Vance’s 2022 Senate campaign.

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Even if Virginians pass the measure, the process putting in place the new map is still under judicial review, with the state Supreme Court hearing a challenge later this month.

The Deseret News has reached out to both Virginians for Fair Maps and the Fairness Project for comment.

How did we get here?

Trump kick-started the redistricting battle last year with the Texas Republican congressional delegation and told them the state should seek five new seats that the Republican Party could win through redistricting.

It was a sign that Trump was looking to not have a repeat of his first presidency, when Democrats flipped the House two years into his term.

In response, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared “game on” and instructed the California state Legislature to redraw the state’s maps to find five additional seats for the Democrats.

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Californians overwhelmingly passed Proposition 50 in a special election last year.

Missouri followed, calling a special session to redraw its state map, looking to gain one GOP seat. North Carolina was next, announcing new plans for a redistricting session last October.

Several other states have joined the nationwide fight, wotj varying outcomes, including Ohio, New York, Maryland, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.

What does it mean?

Historically, the party that controls the White House almost always loses ground with voters in the midterm elections. In the last 20 out of 22 midterms dating back to 1938, the president’s party has lost ground in the House; the only exceptions were due to unusual circumstances like the 9/11 terror attacks and former President Bill Clinton’s impeachment.

Upon returning to the White House, Trump has had the benefit of a slim Republican majority in both the House and Senate. In the House, there are currently 217 Republicans, 213 Democrats, one independent that caucuses with the GOP and four vacancies.

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While the GOP looks to gain about 15 new seats through redistricting, Democrats may come out on top. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages for generic 2026 congressional voting, Democrats have a 5.6 percentage point advantage, up 2.9 percentage points from last October.

It’s a trend that may change over the next several months, particularly as the Trump administration aims to make its case with voters that the Iran war was necessary and consumers see gas prices stabilize.

However, it is something that has Republicans concerned. They’ve shown enough concern that Democrats could flip the House and even the Senate — where the GOP has a 53-45 majority — that they are preparing for a Supreme Court justice retirement in the coming months. They know that if Democrats control the upper chamber and a retirement happens, there’s no way one of Trump’s appointees would be voted through.



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