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Opinion: Disengaged voters will decide the 2024 presidential election

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Opinion: Disengaged voters will decide the 2024 presidential election


On Tuesday, the presidential election finally takes place. When it comes to what led to the outcome, a case can be made that political pundits on the left and right have got it all wrong. That’s because their expertise makes them uniquely unqualified to understand disengaged voters. Political pundits are like sportswriters trying to fathom why some people pay no attention to the Super Bowl. Yet disengaged voters will likely determine the winner. Why? Because these are the only voters still up for grabs.

Engaged voters have already decided who they’ll vote for. Some decided based on ideology (liberal or conservative). Others decided based on group interest (labor status, ethnicity, gender, religion). Some decided based on how they answered the question: Are you better or worse off than you were four years ago?

So who are the disengaged? These are undecided potential voters who just don’t care about politics. As a result, they process information about campaigns in ways that are unfathomable to those fully engaged.

In July, YouGov reported crunched polling numbers from a survey to identify characteristics of “disengaged” voters. The disengaged consume little political news; they are largely ignorant of political issues. They are less likely than others to actually vote. They tend to be “on average younger, more likely to be women, more likely to be Black or Hispanic, less educated, and have a lower household income than the average engaged American voter.”

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Scientific models suggest that people take in information and make decisions using different mental processes. To varying degrees, engaged voters process information systematically. They connect issues together through mental links. Because of these intricate connections, the engaged decide early and are unlikely to change their minds. Changing their minds on one issue means changing their minds on others.

The disengaged take a different approach. They do what scientists call “heuristic” processing. They rely on peripheral cues that have very little to do with issues and candidate qualifications. For example, physical appearance of candidates can sway the disengaged. Research shows that people tend to like others who are physically attractive. If one doesn’t care much about politics, then appearance could serve as a basis for choosing. Using stereotypic notions of “good looks,” John F. Kennedy was better looking than Richard Nixon. Kamala Harris is better looking than Donald Trump.

Research dating from the 1940s shows that many disengaged voters depend on more engaged voters for advice (two-step flow). They also tend to take advice from people they admire, regardless of political expertise.

Arguably, this is why Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris could prove so impactful. After the Sept. 10 debate, the singer posted her endorsement on Instagram. According to Axios, Swift has 283 million Instagram followers. The Instagram post inspired 338,000 Swifties to visit Vote.gov, the federal voter registration website, during the 15 hours after her post.

One can only speculate how many Swifties are young women that YouGov identified as politically disengaged. Whether Swifties actually registered and will vote is also subject to speculation. Historically, celebrity endorsements don’t seem to improve a candidate’s chances. Ask Hillary Clinton. Normally, debates don’t have much impact either. But this is no normal campaign. Ask Joe Biden. In a close race, a percentage point boost from the disengaged in swing states could decide the election outcome.

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Dozier, Ph.D., is professor emeritus in the School of Journalism and Media Studies at San Diego State University. He lives in Encinitas.



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San Diego, CA

Mayor Gloria defends Balboa Park paid parking, blames council for rocky rollout

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Mayor Gloria defends Balboa Park paid parking, blames council for rocky rollout


San Diego will put off issuing citations for paid parking in Balboa Park for about one month while improvements are made, but Mayor Todd Gloria says the new system is functioning well and being “actively adopted.”

In a long and harshly worded memo released Thursday, Gloria said recent calls by City Council members to suspend the program were politically motivated and examples of bad governance and erratic decision-making.

Gloria also deflected blame for the chaotic way enforcement began Monday, when city officials raced to put stickers about resident discounts on parking kiosks and lobbied a vendor to deliver crucial missing signs.

The mayor said the council had “shaped, amended and approved” paid parking in Balboa Park and contended an accelerated timeline chosen by the council made it hard for his administration to implement it flawlessly.

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The mayor’s memo came in response to a Tuesday memo from Councilmembers Kent Lee and Sean Elo-Rivera in which they called implementation of paid parking “haphazard” and “not ready for prime time.”

Lee and Elo-Rivera said the process for city residents to get approved for discounts was so complex, cumbersome and confusing that Gloria should waive fees for residents until they have had time to adapt and learn.

While Gloria rejected that suggestion in part of his memo, he later said “enforcement remains focused on education, not punishment, during this early phase, to ensure park users are aware of the new parking fees.”

Dave Rolland, a spokesperson for Gloria, said Thursday that no specific date had been set for when the city would shift from education to enforcement. But he added that “about a month” would be an accurate timeline.

City officials have already corrected one key mistake: Signs that were missing Monday — alerting drivers that the 951-space lower Inspiration Point lot is free for three hours — have since been installed.

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Lee and Elo-Rivera in their memo decried “an inadequate effort to educate the public on how to use this new system.”

They said San Diegans had not been clearly informed about when a portal for city resident discounts would go live or how to use it.

And they complained that residents weren’t told they couldn’t buy discounted parking passes in person, or when enforcement with citations would actually begin.

City residents must apply for discounts online, pay $5 to have their residency verified, then wait two days for that verification and choose the day they will visit in advance.

Lee and Elo-Rivera called the city’s efforts “a haphazard rollout that will surely lead to San Diegans missing out on their resident discount and paying higher parking rates than they have to.”

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Gloria said the city collected $23,000 in parking fees on Monday and Tuesday and another $106,000 in daily, monthly and quarterly passes — mostly from residents who get discounts on such passes.

“Early data shows that the program is functioning and being used,” he said. “These are not the metrics of a system that is failing to function. They are the metrics of a system that is new, actively being adopted, and continuing to improve as public familiarity increases.”

While Gloria conceded that some improvements are still necessary, he rejected calls from Lee and Elo-Rivera for a suspension, citing his concerns it would jeopardize city finances and confuse the public.

“Your proposal to suspend paid parking for residents two days into the new program would have immediate and serious fiscal consequences,” Gloria said. “This reversal could introduce confusion among park users and would disregard investments already made to establish the system, potentially compromising the program’s effectiveness.”

Paid parking in Balboa Park is expected to generate about $3.7 million during the fiscal year that ends June 30, but revenue is expected to rise substantially when the fees are in place for a full fiscal year.

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Gloria said the money is a small part of the city’s overall solution to recurring deficits it faces of more than $100 million per year.

“What we will not do is reverse course days into implementation in a way that undermines fiscal stability, creates uncertainty, and sends the message that addressing a decades-old structural budget deficit that has plagued our city is optional because it is politically uncomfortable,” he said. “That kind of erratic decision-making is not good governance, and San Diegans deserve better.”

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the San Diego Zoo said Thursday that paid parking there has continued to go smoothly since it began on Monday.

The zoo, which is using Ace Parking for enforcement, opted for immediate citations instead of an educational grace period.

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Barricaded individual in custody following police response in Mission Valley

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Barricaded individual in custody following police response in Mission Valley


SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — San Diego Police responded to a barricaded individual in the Mission Valley area Thursday afternoon, prompting a heavy law enforcement presence.

  • The Nexstar Media video above details resources for crime victims

The department confirmed around 1 p.m. that officers were on scene in the 1400 block of Hotel Circle North, and are working to safely resolve the situation. Authorities asked the public to avoid the area and allow officers the space needed to conduct their operations.

Police described the incident as a domestic violence restraining order violation. At this time, it’s unknown if the person is armed.

No injuries have been reported.

The suspect was taken into custody within an hour.

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Further details about the barricaded person were not immediately released. Police say updates will be shared as more information becomes available.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.



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Padres roster review: Luis Campusano

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Padres roster review: Luis Campusano





Padres roster review: Luis Campusano – San Diego Union-Tribune


















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LUIS CAMPUSANO

  • Position(s): Catcher
  • Bats / Throws: Right / Right
  • 2026 opening day age: 27
  • Height / Weight: 5-foot-10 / 232 pounds
  • How acquired: Second round of the draft in 2017 (Cross Creek HS, Ga.)
  • Contract status: Will make $900,000 after agreeing to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration; Will not be a free agent until 2029.
  • fWAR in 2025: Minus-0.4
  • Key 2025 stats: .000 AVG, .222 OBP, .000 SLG, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 runs, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts, 0 steals (10 games, 27 plate appearances)

 

STAT TO NOTE

  • 1 — The number of plate appearances for Campusano while in the majors between June 1 and June 13 and the one at-bat resulted in a weak, pinch-hit groundout against a position player (Kike Hernandez) on the mound in mop-up duty. Campusano was recalled to the majors four times in 2025 but did not get a real opportunity get settled after he went 0-for-6 with four walks and a strikeout in three straight starts as a DH in early May. Of course, hitting .227/.281/.361 with eight homers over 299 plate appearances after getting the first real chance to start in 2024 likely informed how the Padres viewed his opportunity in 2025.

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