Finance
Experts push back on Goldman Sachs' forecast for low returns
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
Goldman Sachs’ that the S&P 500 will deliver 3% annualized nominal total returns over the next 10 years has gotten a lot of attention. (Read TKer’s view and .)
I think Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management it best: “It’s rare to see such low returns over a 10 year stretch but it can happen. Roughly 9% of all rolling 10 year annual returns have been 3% or less… So it’s improbable but possible.”
Investors would probably love to hear a more decisive view. But , and these kinds of imprecise assessments are the best we can do as we manage our expectations.
That said, last week came with a lot of Wall Streeters pushing back on Goldman’s forecast.
JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM) expects large-cap U.S. stocks to “return an annualized 6.7% over the next 10-15 years,” .
“I feel more confident in our numbers than theirs over the next decade,” JPMAM’s David Kelly . “But overall, we think that American corporations are extreme — they’ve got sharp elbows and they are very good at growing margins.“
.
Expectations for , , and have been hot topics lately. They’re trends that Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research also expects to drive stock prices higher for years to come.
“In our opinion, even Goldman’s might not be optimistic enough,” Yardeni . “If the productivity growth boom continues through the end of the decade and into the 2030s, as we expect, the S&P 500’s average annual return should at least match the 6%-7% achieved since the early 1990s. It should be more like 11% including reinvested dividends.”
“In our view, a looming lost decade for U.S. stocks is unlikely if earnings and dividends continue to grow at solid paces boosted by higher profit margins thanks to better technology-led productivity growth,” Yardeni said.
Datatrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas is encouraged by where the stock market stands today and where it could be headed.
“The S&P 500 starts its next decade stacked with world class, profitable companies and there are more in the pipeline,” Colas wrote on Monday. “Valuations reflect that, but they cannot know what the future will bring.“
He believes “the next decade will see S&P returns at least as strong as the long run average of 10.6%, and possibly better.“
Could something ‘very, very bad’ occur?
Colas noted that historical cases of
“History shows that 3% returns or worse only come when something very, very bad has occurred,” Colas said. “While we are relying on press accounts of Goldman’s research, we have read nothing that outlines what crisis their researchers are envisioning. Without one, it is very difficult to square their conclusion with almost a century of historical data.“
Because of the way Wall Street research is distributed and controlled, not everyone is able to access every report, including experts who may be asked to respond to them.
Goldman shared the report with TKer. Regarding the issue Colas flagged, Goldman does discuss those catalysts but actually highlights them as .
That said, very bad things have happened in the past, and they could happen again in the future. And those events could cause stock market returns to be poor.
“Forecasting one form of economic disaster or another over the next 10 years is not much of a reach; you will be hard-pressed to think of any decade where some economic calamity or another didn’t befall the global economy,” Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management . “But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.”
This leads me to my conclusion: It is very difficult to predict with any accuracy what will happen in the next 10 years. in their report. There are good cases to be made for weak returns as well as strong returns as argued by Yardeni and Colas.
Who will be right? We’ll only know in hindsight.
Generally speaking, I’m of the mind that the because we have a , and earnings are the . And there’s never been a challenge the economy and stock market couldn’t overcome. After all, .
“I have no idea what the next decade will bring in terms of S&P 500 returns, but neither does anyone else,” Ritholtz . “I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. I just don’t know how much higher; my sneaking suspicion is one percent real returns over the next 10 years is way too conservative.”
Review of the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:
Card spending data is holding up. From JPMorgan: “As of 15 Oct 2024, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 1.5% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 15 Oct 2024, our estimate of the U.S. Census October control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.69%.“
From BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 1.9% y/y in the week ending Oct 19, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Spending growth has recovered in the sectors that were most impacted by Hurricane Milton, e.g. clothing, furniture & transit. Even beyond these sectors, we saw broad-based increases in spending growth in the week ending Oct 19.“
Unemployment claims tick lower. declined to 227,000 during the week ending October 19, down from 242,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.
Consumer vibes improve. From the University of Michigan’s : “Consumer sentiment lifted for the third consecutive month, inching up to its highest reading since April 2024. Sentiment is now more than 40% above the June 2022 trough. This month’s increase was primarily due to modest improvements in buying conditions for durables, in part due to easing interest rates.”
Home sales fall. decreased by 1% in September to an annualized rate of 3.84 million units. From NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun: “There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy. Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election.”
Home prices cooled. Prices for previously owned homes declined from last month’s levels, but they remain elevated. From the : “The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $404,500, up 3.0% from one year ago ($392,700). All four U.S. regions registered price increases.”
New home sales rise. jumped 4.1% in September to an annualized rate of 738,000 units.
Mortgage rates tick higher. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.54%, up from 6.44% last week. From Freddie Mac: “The continued strength in the economy drove mortgage rates higher once again this week. Over the last few years, there has been a tension between downbeat economic narrative and incoming economic data stronger than that narrative. This has led to higher-than-normal volatility in mortgage rates, despite a strengthening economy.”
There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
Offices remain relatively empty. From : “Peak day office occupancy on Tuesday fell seven tenths of a point last week to 60.7%. Most of the 10 tracked cities experienced lower peak day occupancy than the previous week, likely due to the federal holiday on Monday. Los Angeles had its highest single day of occupancy since the pandemic, up 1.9 points from the previous Tuesday to 56.3%. The average low across all 10 cities was on Friday at 31.9%, down eight tenths of a point from the previous week.“
CEOs are less optimistic. The Conference Board’s in Q4 2024 signaled cooling optimism. From The Conference Board’s Dana Peterson: “CEO optimism continued to fade in Q4, as leaders of large firms expressed lower confidence in the outlook for their own industries. Views about the economy overall—both now and six months hence — were little changed from Q3. However, CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries declined.
Moreover, the balance of expectations regarding conditions in their own industries six months from now deteriorated substantially in Q4 compared to last quarter. Most CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months, but there was a notable increase in the share of those expecting to roll back investment plans by more than 10%.“
Survey signals growth. From S&P Global’s : “October saw business activity continue to grow at an encouragingly solid pace, sustaining the economic upturn that has been recorded in the year to date into the fourth quarter.
The October flash PMI is consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of around 2.5%. Demand has also strengthened, as signalled by new order inflows hitting the highest for nearly one-and-a-half years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited to the services economy.”
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.
Business investment activity ticks higher. for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a.k.a. — increased 0.5% to a record $74.05 billion in September.
Core capex orders are a , meaning they foretell economic activity down the road. While the growth rate has , they continue to signal economic strength in the months to come.
Most U.S. states are still growing. From the Philly Fed’s September report: “Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 34 states, decreased in 10 states, and remained stable in six, for a three-month diffusion index of 48. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 58.”
Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 3.3% rate in Q3.
Putting it all together
The outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by . And earnings are the .
Demand for goods and services as the economy continues to grow. At the same time, economic growth has from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is these days as .
To be clear: The economy remains very healthy, supported by very . Job creation . And the Federal Reserve – having – has .
Though we’re in an odd period in that the hard economic data has . Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continue to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.
That said, analysts expect the U.S. stock market could , thanks largely due to . Since the pandemic, companies have adjusted their cost structures aggressively. This has come with and , including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is .
Of course, this does not mean we should get complacent. There will — such as , , , , etc. There are also the dreaded . Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.
There’s also the harsh reality that and are developments that all long-term investors to experience as they build wealth in the markets. .
For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t be able to overcome over time. , and it’s a streak long-term investors can expect to continue.
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
Finance
Evoke Entertainment Closes $35 Million Production Financing Facility Backed By Major Private Credit Fund
EXCLUSIVE: Evoke Entertainment has closed a senior secured production financing facility of up to $35 million backed by a multi-billion-dollar private credit fund.
While we verified the deal with the lender, they spoke with Deadline on the condition of anonymity, per company policy. The revolving production facility is designed to support Evoke’s expanding slate of independent features, television movies, streaming films, and series — significantly increasing the company’s already high-volume production output across major studios, networks, and streaming platforms.
More from Deadline
Structured around contracted revenue streams, distribution agreements, tax incentives, and the value of Evoke’s existing library and historical production performance, the facility provides the company with flexible, scalable production financing across multiple genres and platforms. Evoke’s lender comes to the partnership with extensive experience in structured finance, asset-backed lending, and entertainment-related investments.
The deal was spearheaded by Evoke Entertainment CEO Stan Spry, who told us, “This financing marks a transformative moment for Evoke. The backing of a major institutional private credit partner gives us the ability to substantially scale our production operations while continuing to focus on commercially driven, cost-efficient content for the global marketplace.”
The first projects to be financed under Evoke’s facility include a large slate of TV and streaming movies including a Christmas film for Hallmark, a survival thriller for Lifetime, alongside the independent feature films Suburban Kings, Homesick, and Bali Hai.
Founded in 2011, and formerly known as Cartel Entertainment, Evoke Entertainment is a full-service management, production, and finance company that produces more than 20 films and series annually across major platforms including Netflix, Hallmark, Lifetime, Tubi, NBC/Peacock, AMC, and Great American Media. Notable past projects include Creepshow (AMC), Day of the Dead (Syfy), Twelve Forever (Netflix), and the upcoming Breaking Bear for Tubi, to name a few.
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Finance
Livestock Methane in India: Aligning Livelihoods, Systems, and Finance – CPI
Background
India is home to the world’s largest livestock population of 536.76 million, which produces 25% of the world’s milk1. This increase in livestock population leads to increased methane emissions, primarily from enteric fermentation and manure management. As a result, livestock contributes to 58% (BUR 4, 2020) of India’s agricultural methane footprint. However, unlike crop-based emissions, livestock methane is diffuse, biologically driven, and more complex to measure and manage, making it less visible within existing climate finance frameworks.
Current research and policy discussions indicate that while technical mitigation solutions exist through feed improvements and manure management, evidence of their effectiveness in maintaining dairy productivity, animal health, and protecting farmers’ incomes is scattered. This leads to heightened risk perceptions among dairy producers when considering methane mitigation measures. Furthermore, even where the evidence is compelling, the fragmentation of dairy producers precludes their aggregation. Additionally, there is a lack of robust, affordable, and scalable monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems at the grassroots level. These barriers prevent the development of a clear, scalable, and financeable pipeline of livestock methane abatement in India.
The Government of India has actively supported dairy development and livestock health through various schemes and programs introduced by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying. At the same time, livestock systems in India are deeply embedded within rural livelihoods and socio-economic structures, making the sector a critical component of rural resilience. Consequently, interventions must be context-aware and farmer-centric, with a strong focus on livelihood security and alignment with local values and practices.
With this background, CPI is organizing a roundtable to explore how livestock methane can transition from a technically understood challenge to actionable opportunities on the ground, including both animal feed and manure management. The forum would bring together dairy producer organizations, nodal agencies, think tanks, ecosystem enablers, and financial institutions. It will deliberate upon possible projectized solutions and accompanying financing mechanisms that could be scaled up to address the twin objectives of methane abatement and farmers’ income security.
Finance
Efficient Capital Markets Can Unlock Africa’s Domestic Savings
1
By Samira Mensah, Head of Analytics & Research Africa, S&P Global Ratings
Efficient capital markets can transform Africa’s limited domestic financial assets into investments that spur economic growth. By connecting institutional investors, pension funds and foreign investors, capital markets enhance economic development by increasing the availability of funding for long-term projects.
Efficient domestic capital markets can not only address governments’ significant funding gaps but can also ensure that critical infrastructure developments—such as transportation, energy and telecommunications—are adequately financed, ultimately driving economic growth and employment. Supported by transparent and comparable risk frameworks, efficient domestic capital markets can build confidence among domestic and foreign investors and enhance resilience during periods of global risk aversion.
In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks.
In our view, African capital markets currently lack two key building blocks. Firstly, with limited exceptions, regulatory frameworks generally lag the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ (IOSCO’s) global standards, which cover listing standards on securities exchanges, development of digital market infrastructure and improvements in the timeliness and transparency of regulatory disclosures of issuers’ financial results, including environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and green-finance taxonomies.
Some countries, such as South Africa, Kenya, Morocco and Mauritius, are more advanced than others. The misalignment of regulatory frameworks with international norms stems from the gap between adoption and implementation through legislation, which deters international and local investment.
Secondly, the absence of standardized risk assessments leads to information gaps and limits investor participation in primary and secondary bond markets. Credit benchmarks—such as sovereign-yield curves, credit ratings and market-implied risk measures—can help in this regard. They distill complex financial, macroeconomic and institutional information into consistent and comparable signals.
As such, these benchmarks provide a standardized framework for assessing creditworthiness, supporting consistent credit analysis and facilitating decision-making based on transparent and comparable data. They are relevant to investment vehicles with specific investment mandates and may influence the availability of capital, which is crucial for infrastructure projects.
Capital markets can spur economic growth
Capital markets can play a central role in turning domestic savings into productive investments. This is particularly the case in Africa, where development needs are high and incomes are rising from a low base. Additionally, innovative financial technologies, such as fintech platforms, attract more small savings—including money sent home by migrants—that can also fund investments. However, mobilizing domestic savings for investments in local economies remains a significant challenge because many transactions are in cash and outside the financial system.

According to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), African sovereign-wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, central banks and commercial banks hold an estimated US$4 trillion in financial assets, representing 130 percent of Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. Long-term institutional capital accounts for $1.1 trillion of the $4 trillion, while African sovereign-wealth funds manage only about $145 billion in assets under management (AUM)—less than 1 percent of global sovereign-wealth funds’ AUM.
Although banking assets comprise the majority of financial assets, they are typically short-term, and banks rely on customer deposits to fund lending activities. This underscores the mismatch between banks’ short-term funding profiles and the economy’s long-term financing needs, particularly in underdeveloped financial systems.
South Africa holds the largest share of Africa’s financial assets, followed by Egypt and Nigeria. South Africa contributes 20-25 percent to Africa’s financial assets. This reflects the country’s outsized role within the continent’s savings pools, its large and mature pension system and its highly developed banking sector. We estimate that the South African banking sector’s assets amount to nearly 100 percent of GDP, while nonbank financial institutions—including pension and insurance funds—account for close to 120 percent of GDP.
Smaller economies that are important regional financial hubs—such as Morocco, Mauritius and Kenya—also play a meaningful role. Aggregate financial assets represent 80 percent to more than 200 percent of these economies’ respective GDPs. Yet a significant portion of this capital does not flow into long-term productive investments.
In several countries, the economic effects of financial assets are muted because large shares are either invested in government securities or placed offshore. For example, the bank-sovereign nexus remains particularly high in Egypt and Kenya, where government securities account for 30-60 percent of banking assets. This contributes to crowding out private investments and increases fiscal-financial linkages. Pension funds are further constrained by specific investment mandates. We understand that only 5 percent of their assets are allocated to alternative investments.
Capital allocation rules could channel domestic savings into real sectors
Regulations across various jurisdictions permit pension funds and sovereign-wealth funds to invest abroad, albeit to varying degrees. For instance, South Africa, which holds the largest share of the continent’s institutional savings, allows its pension funds to invest up to 45 percent offshore, while Nigeria’s regulatory framework limits pension funds’ aggregate offshore exposure to 20-25 percent.
While this facilitates diversification, it also means that a significant portion of domestic savings is invested in fixed-income securities outside Africa, thereby curbing the potential for local economic development. Similarly, when African sovereign-wealth funds invest internationally, their portfolios tend to be diversified away from African assets, further diluting the potential developmental benefits of domestic savings.

Intra-African investment remains limited
However, existing cross-border banking and investment activity points to significant untapped potential. Pan-African banks are important for regional financial connectivity, but their cross-border activities are limited by risk-return considerations, leaving significant potential for greater mobilization of long-term investment. These banking groups’ networks facilitate payments, trade settlement and sovereign financing, but remain only partially leveraged for long-term investment mobilization.
For example, Moroccan banking groups have built extensive footprints across francophone West and Central Africa but their assets outside Morocco account for less than 10 percent of their consolidated assets. Although Nigerian and Kenyan banks support trade finance and corporate lending across regional trade corridors, their home markets hold the lion’s share of their consolidated assets.
Cross-border institutional capital flows remain modest. Pension funds and insurers largely invest domestically—often in government securities—or allocate savings offshore. This reflects regulatory fragmentation, currency risks, shallow capital markets and limited regional investment-vehicle opportunities. Joint investments in infrastructure, productive sectors and regional value chains remain low.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims at deepening financial integration. By seeking to expand intra-African trade and regional value chains, the AfCFTA aims to increase demand for cross-border financing, risk-sharing and long-term capital. This, however, will require more regional capital-market integrations, harmonized regulations and co-investment platforms that pool African savings.
Leveraging existing pan-African banking networks, regional bond markets, infrastructure funds and blended-finance vehicles could redirect Africa’s capital toward continental growth. This could, in turn, reduce reliance on external financing and strengthen the links between domestic savings and productive investments under the AfCFTA framework.
The catalytic role of MLIs in capital mobilization
Multilateral lending institutions (MLIs) can mobilize long-term funding, provide credit enhancement and support the introduction of new financing structures. To improve capital efficiency and preserve lending capacity, several MLIs have increasingly used balance-sheet optimization tools in recent years, including portfolio risk-sharing and originate-to-distribute-type arrangements.
More broadly, MLIs’ engagement extends beyond direct financing to include policy support, institutional and capacity-building development and infrastructure. These measures may support longer-term improvements in market functioning and economic integration.
Afreximbank’s (African Export–Import Bank’s) push to implement the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) aims to accelerate regional trade integration under the AfCFTA. The PAPSS seeks to facilitate cross-border settlements in local currencies and reduce trade costs, while the Africa Trade Gateway plans to ease cross-border trade and payment flows. The benefits of these platforms for intraregional trade and transaction costs will likely emerge gradually.
Even so, structural constraints remain. In particular, the limited availability of first-loss concessional capital and uneven risk appetite in the private sector continue to constrain the scale and pace at which blended-finance solutions can be deployed. Although MLIs’ continent-wide initiatives could support the gradual expansion of public-private partnerships and risk-sharing structures, their effectiveness will likely depend on sustained policy support, transaction standardization and stable macro-financial conditions.
Strengthening Africa’s capital markets
We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors.
We believe the development of capital markets is crucial for the growth of African economies and their private sectors. Unlocking Africa’s abundant funding potential would benefit from establishing effective regulatory regimes that encourage listings without overburdening issuers. Strengthening capital markets by facilitating both debt and equity raisings and listings can broaden market access and deepen market liquidity.
Excluding South Africa, capital markets across Africa remain fragmented and shallow. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the largest African stock exchange by market capitalization, has a total market capitalization of South African rand (ZAR) 24.6 trillion (about US$1.5 trillion)—more than three times South Africa’s GDP. It ranks among the top 20 stock exchanges worldwide.
In contrast, other exchanges are more modest, as their private sectors’ funding profiles rely primarily on bank loans rather than accessing capital markets. Countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Morocco have significant domestic financing sources, but these often come at high costs.
Governments largely define these domestic bond markets because they are the largest issuers, and commercial banks are the primary buyers of government bonds. South Africa has the most liquid and diverse bond market, but government securities dominate local-currency issuances (270 percent of GDP).

Countries such as South Africa and Nigeria have introduced reforms to unlock nonbank domestic capital, notably through pension-fund reforms that allow greater capital allocation to alternative assets. Other reforms aim to develop new financing platforms, facilitate green financing and set benchmarks for how capital markets can price climate and infrastructure-related risks.
In 2022, the African Development Bank (AfDB) issued its inaugural local-currency ZAR200-million green bond, which was listed on the JSE. The JSE is advancing sustainability-linked financial instruments and improving ESG disclosures, aligning African capital markets with global best practices.
In 2026, the JSE launched its nature platform and listed Africa’s first nature-linked performance-based bond—a ZAR2.5-billion issuance by FirstRand Bank, one of the country’s top banks. In 2025, the Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE) launched its Green Exchange Window (GEW), supported by the Luxembourg Stock Exchange (LuxSE).
Collectively, these labeled debt instruments can act as catalysts for blended-finance structures, mobilizing more private capital.
Governments play a vital role in equalizing access to information and developing deep, transparent sovereign-bond markets. Well-established government-bond yield curves in these markets serve as important pricing benchmarks for corporates and the wider economy. This enhances investor confidence and facilitates more informed investment decisions. Ongoing efforts by governments to increase transparency, provide timely information disclosures and maintain robust regulatory oversight will maximize the benefits of sovereign-bond markets.

Clear and credible credit signals further enhance pricing transparency, enabling investors to better assess risk and return. Greater confidence in valuations supports active participation, improves secondary-market liquidity and strengthens price discovery. Over time, this creates a virtuous cycle—whereby increased participation reinforces market efficiency and resilience, ultimately supporting sustainable economic growth in Africa.
Despite structural shortcomings, domestic investors have increasingly stepped in to meet financing needs. Infrastructure projects are now more often financed through domestic local-currency capital markets and financial institutions, including development-finance institutions. We believe that Africa’s economic integration will be intrinsically linked to more developed domestic capital markets.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Samira Mensah is Managing Director, Research & Analytics Africa, and Country Head for South Africa at S&P Global Ratings, based in Johannesburg. She leads thought leadership and market outreach initiatives across Africa, with a particular focus on African credit markets and Islamic finance. A frequent speaker at industry conferences and contributor to research publications, Samira recently presented at The Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi.
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