Southwest
Trump, Harris neck and neck in key states Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina: poll
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are virtually tied in three crucial battleground states, according to new statewide surveys from Marist College.
The Marist Poll released Thursday finds that Harris and Trump are tied at 49% among likely voters in North Carolina who were asked which candidate they were leaning toward. Of those polled who have made up their minds, 91% said they strongly support their choice.
The race is tight in Arizona as well, where Trump polls just one point ahead of Harris, 50% to 49%, according to the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The same goes for Georgia, where 50% of likely voters are leaning towards Trump and 49% say they are more inclined to vote for Harris.
The Marist Polls were conducted from Sept. 19-24, surveying 4,643 registered voters across all three states who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.
HARRIS-TRUMP SHOWDOWN: THE EDGE IS CLEAR ON THIS KEY ISSUE
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. (Getty Images)
There are 43 Electoral College votes up for grabs between Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump, a Republican, won all three in his 2016 victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, but lost Arizona and Georgia to President Biden in his 2020 defeat. North Carolina, a swing state that Trump won twice, has an incumbent Democratic governor and appears more competitive this year as the Republican candidate for governor, Mark Robinson, is mired in scandal over posts he allegedly made on a porn website and polls poorly against state Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate.
“North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is both the Harris and Trump campaigns’ backup plan after the hard-fought battle over Pennsylvania,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “North Carolina is so close that the five regions in the state line up now almost exactly as they did four years ago. It’s as if the Biden years and the 2024 campaign haven’t happened.”
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% among North Carolina independents who are likely to vote. Biden carried Tar Heel independents by four points in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll. Harris leads Trump among Black voters 86% to 13%, but underperforms compared to Biden, who earned 92% of the Black vote in North Carolina in 2020. Trump has an advantage over Harris with white voters, 59% to 40%, though Harris has improved with this demographic over Biden, who won 33% of the white vote in 2020.
The top issues for North Carolina voters are inflation (32%), preserving democracy (28%), immigration (14%) and abortion (11%), according to the poll.
HARRIS AND TRUMP DEADLOCKED IN PENNSYLVANIA AS FORMER PRESIDENT TRAILS IN OTHER ‘BLUE WALL’ STATES: POLL
Former President Trump arrives for a campaign rally at Wilmington International Airport in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Saturday. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
In Arizona, Harris edges Trump among independents 51% to 47%. Biden won Arizona independents by 9 points four years ago, 53% to Trump’s 44%. Again, Trump leads Harris among white voters 51% to 48%, while the Latino vote is competitive, with 51% leaning towards Trump and 49% towards Harris.
The top issues for Arizona voters are preserving democracy (27%), inflation (26%), immigration (21%) and abortion (14%), the survey said.
“Arizona’s 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, but the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate (Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.) has a double-digit lead,” said Miringoff. “Voters in the state, like elsewhere, are willing to split their ticket this time unlike the straight party voting that occurred in 2016 and 2020.”
Harris also leads Trump among Georgia independents by five percentage points, 51% to 46%. Similar to Arizona, Biden won Georgia independents by nine points in what was the first presidential election win for Peach State Democrats since 1992. Trump heavily contested the 2020 results in Georgia and continues to make unproven allegations of widespread voter fraud that have been rejected by Georgia officials, including Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.
EARLY VOTING BEGINS IN ILLINOIS, NORTH DAKOTA, FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN
Harris campaigns in Georgia highlighting the issue of abortion. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
“Georgia was ground zero for election controversies in 2020. Yet, the overwhelming majority of Georgians express confidence that elections will be fair and accurate,” said Miringoff. “Interestingly, most Democrats and Republicans share this view despite the results last time.”
Georgia voters rank inflation as the top issue (34%), followed by preserving democracy (24%), immigration (13%) and abortion (11%).
A Fox News national poll taken after the first debate between Harris and Trump spotlighted that 39% of voters surveyed said the economy was their most pressing issue, far ahead of immigration (16%) and abortion (15%). All other issues tested were in single digits.
“An increasing number say grocery prices and housing costs are tough for their family,” the Fox News poll notes.
Trump led Harris on the economy by five points in the Fox News poll.
“The issue profile of this election continues to favor Trump,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson.
But Shaw added that Trump’s “edge on economic issues has decreased, probably due to Harris’ messaging on housing costs and taxes, both of which target the middle class and appear to be paying off.”
Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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Southwest
GOP Rep Tony Gonzales admits to affair with former aide for first time
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This story discusses suicide. If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide, please contact the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline at 988 or 800-273-TALK (8255).
Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, admitted to having an affair with a former staffer for the first time on Wednesday.
Gonzales made the confession during an appearance on a conservative talk radio show, just one day after he advanced to a runoff election in his congressional district’s GOP primary. The House Ethics Committee also launched an investigation into Gonzales on Wednesday.
“I made a mistake, and I had a lapse in judgment, and there was a lack of faith, and I take full responsibility for those actions,” he said on “The Joe Pags Show” Wednesday night. “Since then, I’ve reconciled with my wife, Angel. I’ve asked God to forgive me, which he has, and my faith is as strong as ever.”
“When you make mistakes like this, it’s never easy. It humbles you,” he added.
Regina Santos-Aviles, a staffer for Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas, died Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, in Uvalde, Texas. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post via Getty Images | Regina Santos-Aviles Facebook)
The Ethics Committee is investigating whether Gonzales, a married father of six, engaged in sexual misconduct with a female member of his staff and whether he doled out special favors or privileges as a result.
Gonzales has said he has no plan to step down in the face of the accusations, saying last month that there are more details to be released regarding the situation.
“What you’ve seen is not all the facts,” Gonzales told reporters in late February.
REP TONY GONZALES HIT WITH HOUSE ETHICS PROBE OVER SEXUAL MISCONDUCT ALLEGATIONS
Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, has denied having anything to do with his former staffer’s death. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
The three-term congressman argued at the time that he was being “blackmailed” in connection with the case. Controversy first arose after the San Antonio Express-News reported they obtained text messages in which the former staffer, Regina Ann Santos-Aviles, wrote to a colleague that she had an affair with the lawmaker.
Santos-Aviles later died after setting herself on fire.
Gonzales denied having anything to do with her death during his radio appearance.
NANCY MACE TO FORCE VOTE TARGETING FELLOW GOP LAWMAKER ACCUSED OF AFFAIR WITH STAFFER
Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, is interviewed by CQ-Roll Call. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
“I hadn’t spoken with Miss Santos since June of 2024. She passed September of 2025… I had absolutely nothing to do with her tragic passing. And in fact, I was shocked just as much as everyone else,” Gonzales said.
Gonzales took to social media last month and accused Santos-Aviles’ husband of “blackmail,” sharing a partial screenshot of an email from the widower and claiming he was seeking money.
“I WILL NOT BE BLACKMAILED,” Gonzales wrote in a Feb. 19 post on X. “Disgusting to see people profit politically and financially off a tragic death.”
In the email posted by Gonzales, attorney Robert Barrera discussed a possible lawsuit against the lawmaker and a potential settlement with a nondisclosure agreement. The email says that the maximum recoverable amount is $300,000.
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Barrera denied he was trying to blackmail Gonzales.
“It is a desperate attempt to make him look again like a political victim,” Barrera told The Associated Press last month. “There’s no blackmail here. I mean, it’s just ridiculous allegations.”
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Southwest
Nancy Guthrie’s abductor may have returned to the crime scene, left critical clues at tribute: expert
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TUCSON, Ariz. — As a growing memorial outside Nancy Guthrie’s Tucson-area home continues to draw visitors, new questions are emerging about whether investigators are monitoring the site.
Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from her home in the early hours of Feb. 1.
“They could [have eyes on the memorial], we’re just not seeing it,” Betsy Brantner Smith, spokesperson for the National Police Association and a retired police sergeant, tells Fox News Digital. “They could be keeping track of it, but we’re not seeing the cameras.”
Nancy Guthrie was abducted from her Tucson home on Feb. 1. (Getty Images)
Yellow flowers, handwritten notes, artwork and even an open letter addressed to the “kidnapper” have been left at the makeshift tribute in front of her home.
While the memorial grows, however, visible law enforcement presence has significantly dropped.
“Detectives are reviewing all viable leads in this case,” a spokesperson for the Pima County Sheriff’s Department told Fox News Digital. “We do not speak to specifics, as this is still an ongoing investigation.”
Authorities have not publicly identified a suspect, vehicle or any persons of interest.
MULTIPLE SUSPECTS ARE POSSIBLE IN NANCY GUTHRIE’S ABDUCTION
Haunting Nest doorbell camera video shows a masked man on Nancy Guthrie’s front steps around the time of her abduction. He is described as being of average height and build and was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack.
“In this type of situation where you have the potential for a suspect having done this because he or she is somehow obsessed with Savannah Guthrie or seeing Nancy featured on the ‘Today’ show multiple times… someone who is obsessed with notoriety, celebrity — there’s a lot of pathology involved in that,” Brantner Smith said.
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A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s office was seen outside of Nancy Guthrie’s home, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (Ty O’Neil/AP Photo; Nathan Congleton/NBC via Getty Images)
“Potentially, that is the type of person that could come back to the memorial, look at the memorial, even take photos of the memorial and add to the memorial themselves.”
As to why there’s been an alleged lack of law enforcement presence monitoring the site, Brantner Smith pointed to one likely scenario.
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“It may be because they have solid suspects, and they just haven’t released that information to the public,” she said.
It’s not uncommon for an offender to return to the crime scene, she added.
A growing vigil in the morning light under cloudy skies is seen at Nancy Guthrie’s home on February 13, 2026, in Tucson, Arizona. (Ty O’Neil/AP Photo)
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“Sometimes the offender will come back to the scene of the crime. So, in that vein, they would come to the memorial, and they may have left their own note, their own flowers,” she said.
Often, it’s a mark of their arrogance, she told Fox News Digital.
“I am guessing that the suspect or suspects who did this are frankly taking great pride in the fact that so far they’ve got away with it,” she added. “Coming back can also be a way to bring back that rush that they had when they originally committed the crime.”
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Such behavior happens frequently in arson cases, she said.
Deputies examine a flyer taped to Nancy Guthrie’s mailbox on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. They were called to the scene after volunteer searchers and several streamers walked onto Guthrie’s property with a shovel. (Michael Ruiz/Fox News Digital)
“But it’s also not untypical in a homicide case or, in this case, a missing person,” she continued. “We’ve got to look at the psychology of people who do this kind of stuff. They also may want to come back to see what kind of people are leaving notes and leaving flowers.”
For that reason, she said, investigators should be reading the notes to develop potential leads.
“They’re coming back to see the impact that they had on this neighborhood and on this family,” she said. “And the rest of us would view that as very sick, but law enforcement has to view that as a way to collect clues.”
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Savannah, her sister Annie, and brother-in-law, Tommaso Cioni, placed flowers at the growing tribute near the foot of Nancy’s driveway on Monday in a somber visit to the crime scene.
Annie Guthrie, her husband Tommaso Cioni, and Savannah Guthrie at their missing mother Nancy Guthrie’s home on Monday, March 2, in Tucson, Arizona. (Fox News)
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A combined reward for information that leads to Nancy’s recovery from the FBI, local authorities and the Guthrie family stands at over $1 million. It has not yet been claimed.
Savannah is asking anyone with information to dial 1-800-CALL-FBI.
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Southwest
Ted Cruz endorses Texas state Rep Steve Toth in GOP primary challenge to Dan Crenshaw
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U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has endorsed Texas state Rep. Steve Toth, who is challenging incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Lone Star State’s 2nd Congressional District Republican primary.
“I am proud to endorse @SteveTothTX for Congress in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District. Steve faithfully served the people of Texas in the Texas House of Representatives, championing our Texas values of liberty, limited government, and constitutional governance,” Cruz said in a post on X.
“Steve is an unwavering fighter for school choice, fiscal responsibility, and the next generation of Americans. Washington needs bold leadership and representatives who will stand up for Texans at every turn,” Cruz continued.
Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw speaks during a showcase hosted by TerraFlow in Houston Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
“Steve has the experience, the courage, and the conviction to do just that. I’m honored to support his campaign and urge voters in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District to join me in electing Steve Toth to Congress,” he added.
While President Donald Trump has not made an endorsement in the race, he previously backed Toth for Texas state House in 2022 and 2024.
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Texas House incumbent Rep. Steve Toth gives a brief statement before the start of a gubernatorial debate held at Grace Woodlands Church and put on by the True Texas Project on Monday, Jan. 10, 2022 in Spring, Texas. (Michael Wyke/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
“State Representative Steve Toth is doing a fantastic job representing Texas State House District 15. A Small Business Owner and an Ordained Minister, Steve is fighting tirelessly to Secure our Elections, Grow the Economy, Eliminate Needless Regulations, Strengthen the Border, Support our Great Military/Veterans, and Protect and Defend our under siege Second Amendment. Steve Toth has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” Trump wrote in a 2024 Truth Social post.
The last day of early voting for Texas’ March 3 primary contests is Friday, according to the Texas Secretary of State website.
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Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, arrives for the cloture vote on the government funding bill in the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Crenshaw has served in Congress since early 2019.
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