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Heading into Harris-Trump debate, here’s what polls in Michigan and elsewhere say

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Heading into Harris-Trump debate, here’s what polls in Michigan and elsewhere say


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Heading into Tuesday night’s first and potentially only presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Republican former President Donald Trump, the race couldn’t be tighter in Michigan.

Late last month, a Free Press poll showed Trump ahead by the slimmest of margins − 47% to 46% for Harris in a head-to-head matchup and well within the statewide survey’s plus or minus 4-percentage-point margin of error.

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But you don’t have to take our word for it alone. Some polls have shown Harris ahead and others have had Trump leading in the race for the state’s 15 Electoral College votes which will help determine the winner of the Nov. 5 election. But virtually every poll done of Michigan since the Democratic National Convention ended last month has shown a razor-thin margin between the two, meaning the debate offers both a chance to attract some of the still undecided voters (that Free Press poll showed 7% undecided in the head-to-head matchup.)

For what it’s worth, nationally Harris appears to have a lead of anywhere from about 1% to 3% over Trump, but because of the way presidential elections are structured − with each state and Washington D.C. awarding a certain number of Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to become president − and most states’ results considered all but a foregone conclusion, in reality the outcome will come down to how voters in a handful of more evenly divided swing states, including Michigan, decide.

Here are the polling averages in Michigan according to several websites that track and aggregate polling data, as of Monday afternoon:

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46.7% (+1.9), Trump 44.8%.

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∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+1.2), Trump 47.1%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 47.4% (+2), Trump 45.4%.

They’re different, by the way, because each site has its own methodology for which polls they aggregate and over what period of time but they’re generally a good bit in line with each other in terms of what voter surveys are showing.

And in Michigan, what they’re showing is a spread that is decidedly in too-close-to-call territory, especially given Trump’s knack for outperforming the polls. In 2020, for instance, Democratic President Joe Biden beat Trump by 2.8 percentage points in Michigan on his way to winning nationally, but polls on average had Biden ahead by more than 4 points going into Election Day. Four years before that, Trump won Michigan by two-tenths of a percentage point, even though polls on average had Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead by more than 3 points on Election Day.

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It’s a very similar story across the other handful of states − Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia − that will likely decide the race. Here’s what those polling averages look like in those states as of Monday, as well as the number of electoral votes each has and how each voted four years ago:

Pennsylvania (19 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50%-48.8% +1.2)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46.5% (+0.7), Trump 45.8%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 47.6% (tie), Trump 47.6%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 46.8% (tie), Trump 46.8%.

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Wisconsin (10 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.6%-48.9% +0.7)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.7% (+2.8), Trump 44.9%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.7% (+1.5), Trump 47.2%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 48.4% (+2.8), Trump 45.6%.

Arizona (11 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.4%-49.1% +0.3)

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∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 46.1% (+0.4), Harris 45.7%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.6), Harris 46.8%.

∎270towin.com: Trump 47.8% (+1.8), Harris 46%.

Nevada (6 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50.1%-47.7% +2.4)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46% (+0.5), Trump 45.5%.

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∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48% (+0.6), Trump 47.4%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 48.2% (+1.4), Trump 46.8%.

North Carolina (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Trump 50%-48.7% +1.3)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 46.7% (+0.7), Harris 45.9%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.7), Harris 47.2%.

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∎270towin.com: Trump 47.5% (+0.5), Harris 47%.

Georgia (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.5%-49.2% +0.3)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46.5% (+0.3), Trump 46.2%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+0.1), Harris 48.2%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 47% (tie), Trump 47%.

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Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.



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Michigan State Police patrol car damaged in hit-and-run on Lodge Freeway in Detroit

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Michigan State Police patrol car damaged in hit-and-run on Lodge Freeway in Detroit



The Michigan State Police is looking for the driver of a Jeep that the agency said hit one of its patrol cars on Lodge Freeway in Detroit Sunday night.

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According to officials, the incident happened at 7:50 p.m. on the northbound side of the freeway near Shaefer Highway. The agency said a trooper was investigating a crash and had the patrol car parked on the right shoulder of the freeway with its emergency lights on when it was rear-ended by the Jeep. 

“The impact forced the patrol car to strike the concrete wall on the right shoulder,” according to the agency.

A damaged Michigan State Police patrol car on the side of Lodge Freeway in Detroit on March 1, 2026, after it was hit by a Jeep. 

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The Jeep then went across three lanes of the freeway and hit a median wall, officials said. The driver, identified by law enforcement as a 29-year-old Detroit woman, left the vehicle and fled the scene. 

Michigan State Police First Lieutenant Mike Shaw said that while the trooper was evaluated and cleared at the scene by medical personnel, he was still taken to the hospital as a precaution. 



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Indiana extends Big Ten streak to five as the Michigan women win for the first time since 2018

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Indiana extends Big Ten streak to five as the Michigan women win for the first time since 2018


The Indiana men didn’t just win, they secured a fifth straight conference championship, continuing a swimming and diving dynasty in Bloomington. Michigan’s women surged to the top of the league, capturing the title with authority and balance across the lineup.

Records fell left and right throughout the week as this year’s Big 10 championships featured some of the best performances in conference history in the pool.

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Here are the main takeaways from this year’s Big 10 swimming and diving championships:

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Indiana breaks away from Michigan to win fifth straight title

The Indiana men continued their dominance in the pool in 2026, extending their Big 10 dynasty.

From start to finish, the Hoosiers demonstrated experience and elite talent. Indiana won ten different events, including two relays and eight individual wins from six different athletes.

Indiana dominated the distance events this week, winning the 400-yd IM, the 500-yd freestyle, and 1,650-yd freestyle. Senior Zalan Sarkany won both distance freestyle events while freshman Josh Bey started off his Big 10 career with a win in the 400-yard IM.

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Owen McDonald was the second highest scorer in the meet behind Michigan senior Tyler Ray, who was named Big 10 Swimmer of the Championships. The senior won the Big 10 title in the 100-yd backstroke and 200-yd IM.

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Senior Kai Van Westering and junior Dylan Smiley closed on the week with wins on the last night of competition for the Hoosiers. Van Westering grabbed the win in the 200-yd backstroke and Dylan Smiley won the 100-yd freestyle before leading Indiana to a win in the 400-yd freestyle relay to close out the meet.

Beyond individual stars, the Hoosiers stacked swims in the top eight of each event, showcasing balance across not only distance, but sprint and mid-distance events as well. Indiana’s performance combined consistency and poise, placing swimmers in the establishing control from the first event individual event to the final relay.

The win marks Indiana’s 32nd Big 10 title overall, which is second all time behind Michigan. Head coach Ray Looze won his ninth men’s Big Ten title, moving him into the top five all time in conference history.



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Woman accused of driving at the bottom of an Oakland County ski hill near guests

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Woman accused of driving at the bottom of an Oakland County ski hill near guests



A 58-year-old woman is accused of driving a vehicle at the bottom of a ski hill near skiers and snowboarders in White Lake Township, Michigan, the Oakland County Prosecutor’s Office said Saturday.

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Prosecutors allege the Bingham Farms, Michigan, woman drove near guests of Alpine Valley Ski Area, including children, on Tuesday. 

According to the prosecutor’s office, witnesses said they saw the woman smoking what appeared to be marijuana before the incident and wearing ski boots while driving. Officers attempting to perform sobriety tests reported that she “exhibited poor balance, slurred speech, and open hostility.”

Online court records show the woman is charged with operating while impaired for the third time. If convicted, she faces up to five years in prison, a maximum fine of $5,000 and “mandatory vehicle immobilization” for one to three years, the prosecutor’s office said.

“This defendant endangered children with her irresponsible actions,” Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald said in a written statement. “There is no excuse to drive impaired, even once. If you’ve had too much to drink or are under the influence of marijuana or other drugs, call a friend, call an Uber, just don’t drive.”

The woman is scheduled to appear at a probable cause conference on March 12.

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