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The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International

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The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International


BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Each week at Hoosiers On SI we make a score prediction on the Indiana football game and suggest three keys to the game.

Since this was my first go-around with the prediction and three keys – hi, I’m Todd Golden, the new guy at Hoosiers On SI – I thought it would be fun to revisit this after the game to see how well I did. Or how poorly. Or whether the truth is somewhere in-between.

Indiana won 31-7 over Florida International on Saturday at Memorial Stadium in a game that deviated very little from what was expected.

The ease of victory was considerable, but will the devils in those details serve up a tasty plate of satisfaction? Or a big plate of humble pie? Read on and find out.

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Let’s start with the predicted three keys:

1. Protect Kurtis Rourke

Kurtis Rourke

Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (9) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Statistically, it seems that Indiana was passable in this department. FIU sacked Rourke twice, and the Panthers were credited with two quarterback hurries. Rourke dropped back to pass 24 times, so while that ratio isn’t perfect, it’s also not a major concern.

Anecdotally, it seemed like Rourke was under a bit of pressure at times, but are looks deceiving?

In its grades of the game, Pro Football Focus said Rourke was under pressure on 27.6% of his passing plays and that he was pressured eight times overall. Not constant pressure by any means, but enough to rush a few throws.

PFF.com also noted that Rourke was never hit as he threw and that of the six quarterback pressures it counted? Three came from right tackle Trey Wedig’s side of the field.

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Given all of that, you’d have to say Indiana succeeded while also wondering what protection will be like against a more formidable opponent.

2. Shut down FIU’s run game

Indiana run defense.

Florida International Panthers running back Shaborne Demps (21) runs the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This was an unequivocal success for the Indiana defense.

FIU gained just 53 rushing yards and averaged a paltry 1.8 yards per carry. In the third quarter? FIU’s rushing total was minus-6 yards.

In college football, quarterback sacks count in the rushing total, and that can often skew the rushing stats. But even if you take out the 24 yards FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins lost in sacks, the Panthers were still well below 100 team rushing yards.

As I wrote, this made FIU predictable. Jenkins, to his credit, completed 20 of 29 passes for 129 yards. But with the run game stopped, Indiana piled on the pressure and constantly had Jenkins on the run.

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3. Be patient, because FIU might wear down

This never really came into play given that the Hoosiers were in control by the final period.

As we wrote in the three keys story, one of the things that stood out for FIU in 2023 was its fourth quarter scoring plunge. The Panthers scored just 25 points in the fourth quarter in 12 games last season.

Indiana kept FIU off the scoreboard in the second half, although the Panthers did have 75 total yards in the final period. Reserves were on the field for part of the quarter, so this key never really achieved relevance.

Score prediction

Aiden Fisher, Lanell Carr Jr.

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Lanell Carr Jr. (41) celebrate after a defensive play against the Florida International Panthers during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday, I wrote this:

“I don’t think it’s going to be a coronation for Indiana, but I also don’t think it’s going to be a nail-biter either. Indiana has too much talent to burn, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The anticipation level is always high for the first game, but it will be more so as the lid-lifter on the Cignetti era.

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With so many players on the roster who have proven they can win? I think those 13 James Madison transfers will show the way in an exciting, but measured, style of play.”

Just call me Nostradamus. Had the tenor of the game just right. Those JMU transfers were indeed impactful, especially on the defensive side.

The soothsaying was going well – until “Nostradamus” got carried away peering too far into my crystal ball.

“Indiana also has the playmakers to press FIU into turnovers. I think the Hoosiers force at least three on Saturday.”

Indiana forced one, an Amare Ferrell interception off of a tipped pass by D’Angelo Ponds. In fact, Indiana was fortunate that neither of the fumbles Rourke lost flipped the turnover margin in FIU’s favor.

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As for the score? I predicted a 41-21 win for Indiana. I was close on the margin, but I over-estimated Indiana’s offense (and FIU’s for that matter) and under-estimated Indiana’s defense.

We’ll give it all another go next week.



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Who has more 5-star recruits? Indiana football or Miami? Take a look

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Who has more 5-star recruits? Indiana football or Miami? Take a look


BLOOMINGTON — Indiana football’s roster is on more equal footing with Miami, even though the star rankings have meant little to the final results in this year’s CFP.

The No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) beat Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25 despite having no former 5-star players in the starting lineup and just one former top 100 recruit.

The No. 10 Hurricanes (13-2) will have a pair of former 5-star recruits in their starting lineup but are only starting a total of three former top-100 prospects. It’s a sharp drop off in top talent from the likes of Alabama (14), Ohio State (10) and Oregon (eight).

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Category Indiana Miami Oregon Ohio State Alabama
5-stars 0 2 2 3 9
4-stars 2 7 11 16 9
Top 100 recruits 1 3 8 10 14
2-stars or below 9 4 2 1 2

Indiana’s starting lineup still leads the way in overlooked recruits — it will start nine players that ranked 2-stars or below, including starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza — but Miami almost has more (four) than IU’s past three opponents combined (five).

The Hurricanes also has a more of a transfer laden starting lineup (11) than any of Indiana’s postseason opponents.

Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the recruiting rankings for this year’s participants in the CFP championship game:

Re-live IU’s 2025 season

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Indiana football’s quarterbacks vs. Miami

Position Indiana (Year) Rating (National rank) Miami (Year) Rating (National rank)
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza (2022) 2-stars (No. 2,149) Carson Beck (2020) 4-stars (No. 254)

Indiana football’s skill positions vs. Miami

Position Indiana (Year) Rating (National rank) Miami (Year) Rating (National rank)
Wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (2022) 0-stars (N/A) Malachi Toney (2025) 4-stars (No. 359)
Wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. (2022) 4-stars (No. 299) Keelan Marion 2-stars (No. 3,390)
Wide receiver E.J. Williams Jr. (2020) 4-stars (No. 69) CJ Daniels (2020) 3-stars (No. 2,450)
Running back Roman Hemby (2021) 3-stars (No. 1,767) Mark Fletcher Jr. (2023) 4-stars (No. 149)
Tight end Riley Nowakowski (2020) 0-stars (N/A) Alex Bauman (2022) 3-stars (No. 1,770)

Indiana football’s offensive line vs Miami

Position Indiana (Year) Rating (National rank) Miami (Year) Rating (National rank)
Left tackle Carter Smith (2022) 3-stars (No. 730) Markel Bell (2022) N/A
Left guard Drew Evans (2022) 0-stars (N/A) Matthew McCoy (2022) 3-stars (No. 735)
Center Pat Coogan (2021) 3-stars (No. 613) James Brockermeyer (2021) 4-stars (No. 194)
Right guard Bray Lynch (2022) 3-stars (No. 1,033) Anez Cooper (2022) 3-stars (No. 1,149)
Right tackle Kahlil Benson (2020) 3-stars (No. 714) Francis Mauigoa (2023) 5-stars (No. 9)

Indiana football’s defensive line vs. Miami

Position Indiana (Year) Rating (National rank) Miami (Year) Rating (National rank)
Defensive tackle Mario Landino (2024) 3-stars (No. 2,398) Ahmad Moten Sr. (2022) 3-stars (No. 558)
Defensive tackle Tyrique Tucker (2022) 0-stars (N/A) Justin Scott (2024) 5-stars (No. 10)
Defensive end Mikail Kamara (2020) 0-stars (N/A) Rueben Bain (2023) 4-stars (No. 62)
Defensive end Stephen Daley (2022) 3-stars (No. 1,987) Akheem Mesidor (2020) 3-stars (No. 636)

Indiana football’s linebackers vs. Miami

Position Indiana (Year) Rating (National rank) Miami (Year) Rating (National rank)
Linebacker Aiden Fisher (2022) 0-stars (N/A) Wesley Bissainthe (2022) 4-stars (188)
Linebacker Rolijah Hardy (2023) 0-stars (N/A) Mohamed Toure (2019) 3-stars (No. 1,024)

Indiana football’s secondary vs. Miami

Position Indiana (Year) Rating (National rank) Miami (Year) Rating (National rank)
Cornerback D’Angelo Ponds (2023) 3-stars (No. 1,966) OJ Frederique Jr. (2024) 3-stars (No. 784)
Cornerback Jamari Sharpe (2022) 3-stars (No. 826) Ethan O’Conner (2023) 3-stars (No. 673)
Safety Louis Moore (2020) 0-stars (N/A) Zechariah Poyser (2023) N/A
Safety Amare Ferrell (2022) 3-stars (No. 578) Jakobe Thomas (2021) 3-stars (No. 2,048)
Rover Devan Boykin (2020) 3-stars (No. 833) Keionte Scott (2020) N/A

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.





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Indiana Hoosiers championship gear is here! Shop now at Fanatics

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Indiana Hoosiers championship gear is here! Shop now at Fanatics


The Indiana Hoosiers are heading to the College Football Playoff National Championship and they have barreled through some of the best teams in college football to get there.

The National Championship Game is set, with the Indiana Hoosiers facing the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. on Monday, Jan. 19. The matchup was officially locked in when Indiana took down the Oregon Ducks in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, 56-22. After the Hoosiers’ 38-3 win over Alabama, I would not want to be the team standing in their path.

But for Indiana fans, they could not have asked for a better season. You can celebrate all of those big moments, from the Big Ten championship and Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman win, to the Rose Bowl victory with unique sports prints. Then, cap it off with gear at Fanatics heading into the National Championship.

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Here is a look at what to shop for the latest Hoosier’s championship gear at Fanatics:

Shop Indiana Hoosiers championship gear

Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers College Football Playoff 2026 National Championship Game Matchup Total Showdown T-Shirt 

Indiana Hoosiers College Football Playoff 2026 National Championship Game Final Stop T-Shirt 

Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers ’47 College Football Playoff 2026 National Championship Game Matchup Hitch Adjustable Hat 

Shop Indiana Hoosiers Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl gear

Indiana Hoosiers College Football Playoff 2026 Peach Bowl Champions Locker Room T-Shirt

Indiana Hoosiers College Football Playoff 2026 Peach Bowl Champions Hometown Pride Hoodie

Indiana Hoosiers College Football Playoff 2026 Peach Bowl Champions Locker Room Rise Adjustable Hat



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After Surviving Northwestern, MSU Basketball looks ahead to Indiana

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After Surviving Northwestern, MSU Basketball looks ahead to Indiana


Michigan State narrowly escaped with a home win against the now 8–7 Northwestern Wildcats. The Spartans struggled mightily in the first half, entering the break down seven points after scoring just 28 points. Michigan State committed eight turnovers in the opening 20 minutes and went 6-of-11 from the free-throw line.

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After a sluggish start, the Spartans regrouped and took control in the second half. Michigan State shot 14-of-27 from the field after halftime, playing with better pace and ball movement.

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Michigan State’s Cam Ward celebrates after a score and a Northwestern foul during the second half on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jeremy Fears, who picked up two early fouls and began the game 0-of-4 from the field, responded with a strong second half. He finished the game shooting 4-of-7 from the field and a perfect 7-of-7 from the free-throw line.

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Overall, Michigan State was far more composed in the second half against the Wildcats. However, with a matchup against Indiana looming, the Spartans will not be able to afford another slow start like the one they experienced against Northwestern.

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Jan 5, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo sends in a play against the Southern California Trojans during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

Scouting Indiana

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Indiana has undergone a similar offseason transformation to another Big Ten opponent Michigan State has already faced: the Iowa Hawkeyes. After parting ways with head coach Mike Woodson, the Hoosiers hired former West Virginia head coach Darian DeVries.

DeVries began his head coaching career at Drake, where he posted an impressive 150–55 record. Over his final four seasons with the Bulldogs, he led the program to 108 wins and three NCAA Tournament appearances.

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Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler, center, makes a shot against Northwestern during the second half on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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DeVries also went 79–33 in Missouri Valley Conference play, captured three MVC titles, and guided Drake to six of the program’s 11 20-win seasons before leaving for West Virginia.

In his lone season with the Mountaineers, DeVries engineered a significant turnaround, improving West Virginia from a 10-win team to a 19-win team.

Now at Indiana, DeVries has continued that trend of rapid improvement. In Mike Woodson’s final season, the Hoosiers finished 19–13 and missed the NCAA Tournament. This season, Indiana has already reached 12 wins and appears firmly back in the postseason conversation.

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Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr., left, shoots as Northwestern’s Arrinten Page defends during the second half on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Hoosiers are led by senior guard Lamar Wilkerson, a transfer from Sam Houston. Wilkerson is averaging 19.5 points per game while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from three-point range.

Indiana has been strong on both ends of the floor. According to KenPom, the Hoosiers rank 30th nationally in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency.

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Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr., left, slaps hands with Coen Carr, right, after Carr’s dunk against Northwestern during the second half on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As Michigan State prepares to face Indiana, the Spartans will need to clean up their first-half execution to keep pace with one of the Big Ten’s more balanced teams. Indiana’s efficiency on both ends of the court, combined with DeVries’ proven ability to elevate programs quickly, makes this a difficult matchup. For Michigan State, a complete 40-minute performance will be essential if it hopes to build momentum in conference play.

Keep up with all our content when you follow the official Spartan Nation page on Facebook, Spartan Nation, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be sure to share your thoughts on Cam Ward when you join our community group, Go Green Go White, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE. Don’t forget to give us a follow on X @MSUSpartansOnSI as well.

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