Last week, we went over five areas of optimism for Virginia football going into this season. This week, we’re going to take a much more cynical approach to the season. Considering Virginia hasn’t won much in UVA head coach Tony Elliott’s first two seasons, it is easy to be dismissive of Virginia’s chances of turning things around this season. There are some reasons for hope that things can take an upward turn, but let’s talk about the areas of concern going into this season.

This is definitely a big year for Virginia head coach Tony Elliott. Elliott has been dealt a tough hand since becoming UVA’s head coach, but it’s hard to be positive about his tenure given how bad the team has been in his first two seasons. Since becoming head coach, Elliott has gone 6-16 overall and just 3-12 in the ACC. Statistically, Elliott has been the worst UVA coach in his first seasons since Dick Bestwick went 3-18-1 in 1976 and 1977 in his first two years.

The good news for Elliott is that this year’s team is probably the best one he’s had at UVA. However, the bad news is that it might not lead to a meaningfully different outcome for this season. As previously talked about in our Five Keys for UVA to Make a Bowl Game article, Virginia was really bad in the fourth quarter of last season. In the fourth quarter alone, the Cavaliers had a margin of -60, losing four games that the Hoos at one point held a double-digit lead. While things can definitely turn around for Elliott and Virginia this year, Elliott has a lot of pressure on him this season, and it will be an uphill climb for UVA to make a bowl game.

Another area of concern is the running game for Virginia. Last year, Virginia was completely reliant on the passing game to move the ball, as the Hoos simply could not establish any type of ground attack. In 2023, the Cavaliers averaged just 117.9 rushing yards per game, which ranked 107th out of 133 FBS teams. To make matters worse, Virginia only averaged 3.1 yards per carry, which ranked 123rd in the country and dead last in the ACC.

UVA’s offensive line struggles over the past two seasons have had a direct correlation with the Cavaliers struggling to run the football. Virginia should have more continuity and playable depth this year with the offensive line, but the running game is still a point of concern for the Hoos. Running back is not a very deep spot for UVA this season with the departures of Perris Jones and Mike Hollins, so the Cavaliers will need Kobe Pace, Xavier Brown, and Jack Griese to be productive and efficient with their touches.

Virginia’s defensive line play has not been close to good enough so far in the Tony Elliott era. Last season, Virginia’s defensive line was one of the least productive defensive lines in all of college football, struggling not only to get to the quarterback but to stop the run as well. Last year, Virginia could not sack the QB at all, finishing dead last in the country with just 11 sacks. Against the run, the Hoos were not much better, giving up 184.5 rushing yards per game, which ranked 117th in the country.

The Cavaliers did have a couple of season-ending injuries to key players on the defensive line last year, but there needs to be major improvement moving forward. Virginia returned several key players on the defensive line, but the unit is still a concern going into this season. Mekhi Buchanan already suffered a season-ending injury earlier in fall camp, which is a big blow for a defensive line that will need all of the help that they can get this season in terms of production. Look for Kam Butler and Chico Bennett on the edges and Jahmeer Carter and Michael Diatta on the inside.

Poor special teams play has been very costly for Virginia football over the past couple of seasons. UVA has played in many close games so far in the Tony Elliott era and has struggled to finish down the stretch to get wins. In his first two seasons, Elliott is just 4-8 in one-score games, and special teams has certainly made a big difference in that discrepancy. Obviously, special teams has not been the only issue for Virginia, but the unit has made several key mistakes at the wrong times to contribute to Virginia’s struggles in close games. 

This offseason, Elliott has made it a point of emphasis to improve the special teams unit. The return of Daniel Sparks and Will Bettridge at punter and kicker respectively should help, but the proof will be in the pudding this year. Whether it’s kickoffs, punt coverage, or field goals, Virginia has not been good enough to win close games and will need to see a drastic improvement in order to lead to more wins.

A Challenging Start to the Season

In our Five Keys for UVA to Make a Bowl Game article, we talked about how Virginia actually has a reasonably favorable ACC schedule. There certainly are challenges and difficult matchups in conference play for the Cavaliers, but the good news is that UVA avoids many of the expected top teams in the ACC this season.

However, the beginning of the season will present several challenges for UVA. Virginia should be able to take care of business in the season opener against Richmond on August 31st, but the schedule only gets more challenging after that. The next week, the Cavaliers open ACC play against an underrated Wake Forest team on the road. Virginia has struggled mightily against Wake Forest in recent years, last beating the Demon Deacons in 2007. In fact, Virginia has not won in Winston-Salem since 2002. Then, the Hoos return home for another challenging matchup against Maryland. The Terrapins have been another thorn in Virginia’s side as of late, winning their last three meetings against Virginia. The two most recently met last season, which Maryland won 42-14. Finally, to close September, Virginia will play Coastal Carolina on the road, which will likely be Coastal Carolina’s biggest home game of the season.

Considering that Virginia will still have plenty of difficult matchups throughout the rest of the season, the first month of the season will be extremely important. If Virginia gets off to a slow start, it will be very tough to turn things around and make a bowl game. With several challenging matchups in September, Virginia will need to establish an identity and play well right out of the gate.

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