Rising interest rates and a drop in sales have done little to lower average home prices.
Only 1 in 5 households in Hawaii can afford to buy a single-family home — a dramatic drop from just three years ago, according to a grim housing report released by the University of Hawaii on Monday.
In 2021, 44% of Hawaii households could afford the mortgage on a median-priced single-family home. That figure is now 20%. As a result, home sales plummeted last year, hitting a 25-year low. But the slump had little impact on prices.
“We haven’t really seen any drop in prices, but there’s this huge increase in what it costs to buy a house because of interest rates,” said Justin Tyndall, an assistant professor of economics with the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization and the lead author of the report. “Affordability is as bad as it’s ever been.”
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Hawaii has “both the highest construction costs and highest land costs of any state in the U.S.,” according to the report. However, regulatory costs play a dramatic role in the state’s high condo prices. (Cory Lum/Civil Beat/2022)
High interest rates have had a crippling effect on would-be homeowners in the state by not only making mortgages significantly more unaffordable, but also reducing the number of houses on the market.
A majority of mortgage-holders in the state are paying an interest rate of less than 4%, according to the report, making many homeowners wary of putting their home on the market and trying to purchase something else at a much higher interest rate.
The state’s housing market has also worsened for renters in the last year. Hawaii has the highest median rents in the nation and a majority of renters — 56% — are considered “rent-burdened,” meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on rent.
The Maui fires worsened the state’s housing crisis, causing prices to rise while “the availability of rentals have plummeted,” according to the report.
Vacation Rentals And Out-Of-State Buyers
Short-term vacation rentals make up about 6% of the state’s housing stock, a figure that has grown in recent years but also varies dramatically by island. The number of active short-term rental listings grew 9% statewide between 2022 and 2023. Kauai saw the biggest spike, with a 22% jump in listings.
The number of short-term vacation rentals on Maui has actually increased slightly since the fires, despite the loss of 380 vacation rentals in West Maui and tax incentives for unit owners across the island to convert their units into long-term housing.
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“The policy was supposed to incentivize a bigger shift away from vacation rentals and toward housing locals, but we haven’t really seen that in the aggregate,” Tyndall said.
While short-term vacation listings on Maui plummeted after the fire, they are now 2% higher than they were a year ago.
The percentage of out-of-state property owners varies dramatically by community, (Screenshot/2024)
The report also found that “a significant portion of Hawaii’s property owners” are not residents of the state. People from out of state made up 13% of property owners on Oahu and 32% on Maui. More than half of property owners in Lahaina had an out-of-state mailing address.
On Maui, about 85% of vacation rentals are owned by people from out of state, Tyndall said.
Another big takeaway from the overall data, Tyndall said, is that the state isn’t building enough housing to have any real impact on affordability. The state has significant issues with permitting delays, although some progress has been made in the last year in multiple counties, according to the report.
However, strict limits on where multi-family homes can be constructed, along with steep developer fees and permitting delays contribute to the high costs of condos and “reduce the amount of new housing the state.”
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“While many households have a preference for single-family homes, building high-rise condominiums can provide many more units, allowing vacancies to propagate across the market, and pushing down housing prices everywhere, including for single-family homes,” the report says.
Converting thousands of vacation rentals into long-term rentals — which Maui’s mayor is proposing to do — could have a really significant impact on affordability, Tyndall said.
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Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Tonight: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Monday: Cloudy. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
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Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 44 to 51 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Waimea
Tonight: Cloudy and breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Cloudy and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 78 near the shore to 67 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 52 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Kohala
Tonight: Cloudy and breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Monday: Cloudy and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 78 near the shore to 67 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 52 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Tonight: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Cloudy and breezy. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
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Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
Puna
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Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday Night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Tonight: Cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
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Monday: Cloudy. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 47 to 54 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.
Synopsis
The cold front has dissipated into a trough and remains northwest of the Hawaiian Islands this evening. High pressure will build in from the north and allow the trade winds to strengthen from Monday through Wednesday. Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours through Wednesday and then over southeastern slopes and island interior sections from Thursday onward. Winds will weaken and veer slightly from a more east-southeast direction from Thursday on into the weekend. Shower activity will remain limited during this time period.
Short term update
The large band of high level cirrus clouds and mid level alto stratus clouds currently over the islands will continue to slowly diminish through Monday. The cold front approaching the islands has stalled and diminished into a trough just northwest of the island of Kauai. Trade winds blow into the region and strengthen into the moderate to locally breezy range from Monday through Wednesday. A slight decrease in wind speeds and a shift from a more east- southeast direction remains in the forecast from Thursday onward as another cold front approaches the islands from the northwest, weakening and lifting the ridge north of the state. Local scale sea breeze winds will develop along terrain sheltered slopes of each island as the large scale winds weaken. Limited shower activity will prevail into next weekend with only brief showers possible. The afternoon forecast looks good. No evening updates.
Previous discussion
Issued at 302 PM HST Sun Mar 1 2026. Expectations for this afternoon remain on track. The boundary upstream of Kauai has made little to no forward progress today, sea breezes have struggled to establish owing to abundant high clouds, and showers southwest of Kauai and Oahu have essentially remained in place while stratiform elements peel off to the northeast. In addition, regenerating showers over Windward Oahu have dissipated in response to backing low-level flow. All told, an uneventful, cloudy, and mostly dry day across the state. Going forward, building heights over the N Central Pacific will maintain strengthening, but progressive high pressure at the surface. This in turn ensures the return of trades tonight which then become breezy during mid-week. Winds diminish slightly by late week as trades veer to ESE in advance of another round of upstream height falls. Typical trade wind weather anticipated throughout this time with showers focused windward and mauka. High clouds gradually clear from west to east Monday into Tuesday before exiting the area altogether by Wednesday.
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Aviation
A weakening stationary boundary will allow for abundant high clouds and relatively light land/sea breezes to prevail across most TAF sites. This front will also allow for disorganized showers across Kauai and Oahu tonight, however confidence was on the lower end based on weather model guidance, so made use of VCSH and PROB30 where rain chances were felt to be the highest. MVFR conditions may prevail under shower activity, otherwise VFR is expected across most sites for the period. AIRMET Tango remains in effect across the islands due to upper- level turbulence from FL200-400 due to this front, with conditions expected to improve into tomorrow as this system continues to weaken. Patchy mountain obscuration may occur due to the presence of this front, however observations and webcams suggest that the threat is not widespread enough to warrant an AIRMET at this time. Light icing is also possible in cloud layer 120-180.
Marine
Issued at 302 PM HST Sun Mar 1 2026. A dissipated front will linger into Monday just northwest of the area. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will build in by Tuesday as surface ridge strengthens to the north. Winds will maintain strength but veer east southeast towards the end of the week as another system approaches from the west. Surf along north and west-facing shores will be above seasonal average as a northwest swell (310 degrees) is expected to impact through Monday. Surf should remain small though the week with a small northwest bump expected next weekend. Surf along exposed east-facing shores will be a bit elevated due to a short-to medium-period northeast (40 degrees) swell, then decline Tuesday. However, period and choppy conditions are expected to return by Tuesday as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state. Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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(BIVN) – YAS Fest, aka the Youth Art Series Festival, is returning to Kalākaua Park in Downtown Hilo.
The East Hawaiʻi Cultural Center is hosting the event on Saturday, March 14th from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. “Keiki and their families will be treated to an exciting array of performances, craft and information booths, and art activities,” a press release promoted.
From event organizers:
YAS Fest brings together local organizations dedicated to providing arts opportunities to keiki and teens from around Hawaiʻi Island. By spotlighting their activities, YAS Fest celebrates the importance of arts education for everyone.
Booths include the Hilo High School Art Club, Hawaiʻi Handweavers’ Hui, Friends of the Palace Theatre, and over a dozen more.
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Headlining the performers is HAAStile (a teen rock band from Hawaiʻi Academy of Arts and Sciences, directed by Trever Veilleux). Audiences will also enjoy performances by Big Wave Dance Academy, Aloha Teen Theatre, N2 Dance, Hawaii’s Volcano Circus, Prince Dance Institute, and Kona Dance and Performing Arts.
YAS Fest is made possible by support from County Council District 2 and Coldwell Banker Island Properties. EHCC also thanks KTA Super Stores, Kelsey Ito, and Lō‘ihi Studios for their contributions.
Says YAS Fest organizer Kellie Miyazu, who is EHCC’s Youth Education Director, “Last year we had around 300 visitors to the first YAS Fest. There was a lot of nice feedback from visitors, and also from the organizations who were able to network with each other and the community. We’re expecting an even more successful festival this year.”
Visitors are also encouraged to stop by the EHCC patio across the street to learn more about EHCC’s vision for the year and how community support helps keep EHCC’s unique gallery and keiki programs accessible to all.
For more information, visit EHCC online at ehcc.org, call 961-5711, or visit EHCC at 141 Kalakaua Street. Current gallery and office hours are from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday noon to 6 p.m.
A boy was killed after being struck by a vehicle today in Hawaii Kai, police said.
At about 11:02 a.m., a 37-year-old woman “was attempting to travel northbound” on Kukuau Place when the vehicle hit a boy who was in the road in front of the vehicle, according to a Honolulu Police Department’s Traffic Division news release. The child was taken to a hospital in critical conition where he was pronounced dead.
The driver remained at the scene and was uninjured, police said.
HPD did not release the boy’s age or say whether speed, drugs or alcohol were possible factors in the collision.
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This was Oahu’s ninth fatality in 2026, compared with 15 at the same time last year.
