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Better Know a B1G: Adv. Stat Comparison Illinois Fighting Illini

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Better Know a B1G: Adv. Stat Comparison Illinois Fighting Illini


Mark and Andrew had articles last week about getting to know one of the teams in the BigTen, Illinois. (https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2024/4/12/24127914/big-ten-newcomer-q-a-illinois-fighting-illini-uw-football and https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2024/4/12/24128205/better-know-a-b1g-when-the-other-juice-was-loose)

Another way to look at the teams in the BigTen is to compare some advanced-type stats between those teams and UW.

Composite Ranking Comparison

Let’s start first by looking at the final ranking in the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) over the last 9 years.

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As you can see, Illinois has only finished in the top 60 once in the past 9 years: 2022. That year they finished ranked 28. The other thing to notice is the significant dip in Jimmy Lake’s last season compared to the rest of the seasons. And that was the only time when Illinois finished ranked higher than UW.

SRS

The Simple Rating System, SRS, (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html) tries to rate and rank teams, not just in a season, but across seasons.

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The results look similar. Illinois has had just one good season. The one difference is that UW was lower in the COVID 2020 season, which was again coached by Jimmy Lake. So here, the effect of Lake as the coach is more evident. It is also evident that the gains that Illinois made during 2021 and 2022 appear to have been erased by a poor 2023 season.

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F+

I could go through a lot of the advanced stats like FPI, SP+, etc. Instead, I’ll just include one, F+, which is a combination of FEI and SP+. This should be representative of most of the advanced stats.

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This graph is also similar to the others above. One difference is that Illinois actually ranked higher than UW in both 2021 and 2022. (In 2022 Illinois had a value of 1.06 while UW’s value was 1.04.)

Talent Comparison

While not normally an “advanced stat”, I thought that I would compare the talent for both teams each year over the same period. Here I’ll be using the average rating by 247Sports for all of the players. (https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/)

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UW has clearly maintained a talent advantage over Illinois during this period. And you can see that both teams have improved their talent during this period, and that the improvements are similar.

Final Thoughts

UW last played Illinois in 2014 and is scheduled to play Illinois in conference play in 2025 when the Illini visit Husky Stadium. UW is scheduled to play at Illinois in 2028. (Note that although UW did a home-and-home with Illinois in 2013-2014, but they did not play at Illinois in 2013-instead they played the game in Chicago.)

Despite a tough 2023 season, Bret Bielema has Illinois playing better than they were the previous 5 seasons. They’ll have to be playing better considering that this year they are scheduled to play Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan, plus Duke in a non-conference game.

UW should be able to maintain a talent advantage over Illinois. But, as we’ve seen, talent alone isn’t enough. But if Fisch can do what he did at Arizona, UW should be able to be the better team when they meet next season.

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Chicago Bears property tax incentives advance in Illinois House over city opposition

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Chicago Bears property tax incentives advance in Illinois House over city opposition


A tax incentive plan aimed at keeping the Bears in Illinois advanced in the state House Thursday amid opposition from City Hall and questions about whether Democrats can whip up enough votes to pass it.

The legislation, introduced by state Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago), would allow the NFL team to negotiate a freeze on property tax assessments with local taxing districts — in this case, Arlington Heights, Cook County and local school districts.

This marks the latest development in the high-stakes bidding war between Illinois and Indiana over which state can lay claim to one of the NFL’s most storied franchises as the team looks for the exits from its long-time lease at Soldier Field.

On a roll call opposed by Republicans, the Democratic-led House Revenue & Finance Committee voted 13-7 to back Buckner’s legislation and position it for a vote by the full House. But that didn’t happen after the committee vote because the House adjourned for the week without taking action on the measure.

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Following the committee’s action, Buckner said it’s time to start putting a legislative plan into motion, and the property tax concessions are essential for anything going forward.

“I don’t feel pressured by the Bears,” Buckner said. “What is important to me, though, is that we are able to put these tools in play. I do want the team to stay in Illinois. That’s very important to me.”

The bill that advanced Thursday deals only with the issue of property tax certainty and saving the Bears hundreds of millions of dollars by freezing property taxes on the Arlington International Racecourse site, and allowing the team to negotiate reduced “payments in lieu of property taxes with suburban school districts.”

Still to be determined is the massive infusion of infrastructure funding required to bankroll the road, sewer and utility work needed to ready the site for development.

Ahead of the vote, Buckner appeared on “The Fran Spielman Show” podcast and said the infrastructure wish list that started at $855 million has been whittled down to $734 million and said, “We’re still talking through it.”

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But Buckner told the Chicago Sun-Times that whatever the final number turns out to be, the Chicago legislative delegation will demand similar help to renovate and refresh Soldier Field and ease the transportation bottleneck that makes it difficult to get in and out of the Museum Campus.

“We’ve still got some things to work on, including Chicago and what happens with Chicago and a Chicago package,” he said.

Buckner, whose district includes Soldier Field, has long spoken out against the state cutting a blank check to finance a new Bears’ stadium, particularly given that roughly half a billion dollars in debt remains from the 2003 renovation of Soldier Field. Buckner said the Bears should pick up that tab.

The Chicago Park District has made an ask for $630 million for infrastructure and renovation of the Soldier Field — an appeal that a representative of the mayor’s office renewed today despite formally registering as an opponent to Buckner’s legislation.

Steven Mahr, Chicago’s acting chief financial officer, told the House panel the relocation of the Bears would have “devastating consequences on the city,” and he re-upped the city’s previous $630 million infrastructure request.

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“Some of those consequences are unknowable,” Mahr said. “It is clear that Chicago is the economic engine of the state of Illinois. Engines require fuel to run, otherwise engines stall and grind to a halt. The city is requesting a fair and equitable opportunity and a level playing field.”

Labor unions, business groups and several northwest suburbs, including Arlington Heights, voiced support for the legislation.

This is a developing story.



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Bears, Illinois get do-over opportunity on new stadium, but will something finally get done?

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Bears, Illinois get do-over opportunity on new stadium, but will something finally get done?


INDIANAPOLIS — After last week’s breakdown in communication between the Chicago Bears and top Illinois lawmakers, the two sides are back to having constructive talks. The opportunity to do what they failed to do last week — advance legislation through the Illinois House – now seems possible.

While the language is still far from being finalized, there is renewed hope that PILOT legislation could pass in the Revenue and Finance Committee. An amended version of Illinois House Bill 910 was filed Wednesday evening in Springfield and added to the schedule for Thursday’s committee hearing at 10 a.m. Of significance, the filing of the bill came from Rep. Kam Buckner, who has been leading the City of Chicago’s interests during stadium negotiations with the Bears.

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What happens Thursday will be telling. One source close to the situation suggested there will be a push to not only pass the bill in the committee, but also push it to the House Floor for a vote by the end of the day. The same source expressed skepticism that a Floor vote would actually occur. The Illinois House is scheduled to adjourn until March 18 after Thursday’s proceedings, complicating the timing to advance significant stadium legislation.

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Pressure has mounted in Springfield this week, with the neighboring Indiana Senate scheduled to vote on their stadium legislation Thursday just steps away from the NFL Scouting Combine, which has brought Bears chairman George McCaskey and president Kevin Warren to town.

Multiple sources have insisted since last week that the Bears and Illinois are not far off in their negotiations. Gov. JB Pritzker told reporters at an event in Chicago on Tuesday that “there’s been really broad agreement” about changes the Bears have proposed in recent weeks.

But while Indiana stadium legislation remains at the one-yard line, the reality is that Illinois still needs more runway to finalize details, including what incentives the City of Chicago will receive from the Bears. The hope is that passing some form of PILOT legislation through a committee on Thursday will be a sign of good faith that Illinois is finally getting serious about keeping the Bears.

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The situation is essentially a do-over opportunity after similar legislation failed to make it to the same Revenue and Finance Committee last Thursday. Indiana, on the other hand, advanced their stadium legislation out of its Ways & Means House Committee with a 24-0 vote. The Bears later called it “the most meaningful step forward in our stadium planning efforts to date” in a statement.

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The events left Pritzker’s team stunned. The statement from the Bears lauding Indiana’s efforts caused the most frustration after what appeared to be a productive week of talks in Illinois. Those talks were put on hold until Warren released a statement to Crain’s Chicago Business that said: “We continue to work with Illinois’ leadership and appreciate the progress being made.”

Meanwhile, in Indianapolis, all signs point to Senate Bill 27 getting to Gov. Mike Braun’s desk before the Indiana legislative session ends Friday. The bill passed through the Indiana House with a 95-4 vote on Tuesday and is expected to pass in the Indiana Senate on Thursday. If all goes as expected, the Bears would be in a position to commit to building a stadium in Hammond, Ind. at any time.

That reality is accelerating movement amongst lawmakers in Springfield. And what happens Thursday could prove to be crucial.



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CASNews student spotlight: Alexandra Raloff

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CASNews student spotlight: Alexandra Raloff


Name: Alexandra Raloff
Year: Junior
Major: Mathematics teacher education
Minor: English
Hometown: Tinley Park

What brought you to Illinois State University and the College of Arts and Sciences?

“When I was looking for a university to attend, I wanted somewhere that was close to home for when I want to see my family, but also far enough to gain a sense of independence. I also know Illinois State is known as a good university to attend if you want to go into teaching, so that was a major part of my decision-making as well. When it comes to coming to the College of Arts and Sciences, I have always enjoyed the challenge and satisfaction of solving challenging math problems, and I wanted to further pursue mathematics alongside going into teaching. It’s also really nice being able to add my English minor as well, since writing and literature are personal interests of mine.”

How have you gotten involved at Illinois State?

“I’ve made many friends on campus and like to attend university events like Welcome Week, and I’ve been in a few RSOs (registered student organizations), but I’m most involved in the RSO Vocal Movement. I’m the current treasurer, one of the choreographers, the soprano 2 section leader, and I have a lot of friends in the group, so I spend a lot of time with them. I’m also in the Honors Program and have taken fun honors seminars and explorations, but my favorite honors experience so far has been the Alternative Spring Break trip to Cumberland State Park in Tennessee. Helping build trails made me feel more connected to nature and myself, and it was very rewarding to see all the progress our hard work helped contribute to.”

What is your proudest or happiest moment so far at Illinois State?

“I’ve had many happy moments and moments where I was proud of myself at Illinois State, but one that stands out to me was on the last day of my Honors Alternative Spring Break trip when we took a break from working on the trail to spend time at Daddy’s Creek. Clearing the duff on the trail was very physically demanding work, and I was so proud of myself for sticking with it and doing my best every day, even when I was sore and the walk in got longer and longer each day from all the duff we managed to clear as a group. That time we spent on the last day at the creek made me really appreciate all the work we put in, and I was so proud of myself for sticking with it even when it was hard, and that made that time spent at the creek with the friends I’ve made feel even more precious.”

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Associate Professor Óscar Chavez on Raloff:

“Alexandra was my student in MAT 211. She always had a happy disposition and a keen interest in geometry. I could always count on meticulous work from her. I think that proof writing is a creative endeavor. Alexandra’s proofs in my class were always a pleasure to read, carefully crafted arguments rather than blind application of a procedure. She has an inquisitive mind, she is a profound thinker, and an excellent team player. She has varied interests which, I’m sure, will give her a broader view of education. I think Alexandra has a very bright future as a mathematics teacher. Her students will be very fortunate to learn from her.”

Read more stories from the College of Arts and Sciences at News.IllinoisState.edu/Unit/College-Arts-Sciences and follow the college on Facebook and Instagram.





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