Politics
Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?
If President Biden’s reelection hinged on the state of the economy, he’d be a good bet, or at least a better one. Instead, it’s voters’ perception of the economy that matters. Which is a big reason the president is struggling as his campaign against presumptive rival Donald Trump gets underway.
Rarely if ever in the modern history of polling has there been such a disconnect between how the economy is faring and how many Americans think it’s doing. That’s partly because of our political polarization. Media coverage of the economy, and of the Republicans who falsely blather about it unchallenged, isn’t helping. We journalists have to do better: Stop letting South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, for instance, get away unchecked with saying Biden “has destroyed our economy,” as happened on a recent Sunday talk show.
Opinion Columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
But the real onus is on Biden. He must persuade the persuadables among skeptical voters. He’s trying, but he needs help from the Democratic bench, and fast.
Separate news late last week — about two government reports, a stock market record and a national poll — underscored how divorced economic reality and perception have become.
On Thursday came the report that the economy had grown 3.1% in 2023 — faster than the gross domestic product’s average growth in the three pre-pandemic years under Trump. Word followed on Friday that inflation continued to cool in December, to levels last seen before the pandemic. The inflation report stoked investors’ confidence that the Federal Reserve would indeed cut interest rates; the S&P 500 surged for yet another record trading day.
Economic growth. Back-to-normal inflation. Lower interest rates. A bull market. It all confirms a trend that’s been apparent for months, along with low unemployment, more job creation than under Trump and real wage increases outpacing inflation. Meanwhile, talk of an imminent recession is so 2022.
The superlatives from giddy economists read like the promo blurbs on movie ads: “Just a perfect report” — Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics. “Stunning and spectacular” — Diane Swonk, KPMG. “Hard to imagine how things could look better” — UBS’ Brian Rose. “This year has been like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots” — Dan North, Allianz Trade Americas.
Responding to Biden’s celebratory statement — “Wages, wealth, and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic” (read: when Trump was president) — even Trump’s former economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, conceded on his Fox Business show, “I would be bragging about it, too.”
From most Americans, however, all you get is a Bronx cheer.
Amid the good economic reports came poll results from the Pew Research Center and the headline said it all: “Americans More Upbeat on the Economy; Biden’s Job Rating Remains Low.” And “upbeat”? That’s relative. Yes, Pew found a 9-point increase since last April in the percentage of adults who rate the economy as excellent or good — up to a whopping 28%. The increase came among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Still, less than half of Democrats, 44%, had positive views of the economy. And just 13% of Republicans said it was excellent or good.
Many Americans’ views of the economy have long tended to be colored by whether the White House occupant is someone of their favored party. But that bias is more evident than ever in these more polarized times.
It’s become so pronounced among Republicans, two Stanford University economists found in November, that traditional models to gauge consumers’ sentiment using fundamental economic data (inflation, stocks, unemployment, consumption) “have broken down” since 2020. Consumer sentiment should be about 13 points higher on the feel-good scale, economics professor Neale Mahoney and doctoral candidate Ryan Cummings concluded.
With the oft-lying Trump calling the economy “so fragile,” and wishing for “a crash,” many in his party will never be convinced the economy is actually in good shape, no matter their own financial comfort. (“Things were better with [Trump] in office,” a Republican caucus-goer in Iowa told the New York Times, adding, “I have been pretty lucky, though.”)
But demoralized Democrats and the swing voters who decide elections in battleground states can be swayed. Granted, you can’t convince voters that the economy is good if they aren’t feeling it, but to some degree most Americans are, polls and data show. The early signs of rosier — and more realistic — consumer sentiment, are reflected in this month’s double-digit rise tracked by the much-followed University of Michigan index. And the effect of Bidenomics’ long-term public investments, like the bridge-replacement project the president visited on the Wisconsin-Minnesota border Thursday, has yet to be realized.
The president has to hope the gains stick, as many economists predict, and that voters give him props.
President Obama, facing reelection in 2012, told people privately that he was determined to win because “I’ll be damned” if someone else was going to take credit for the growth his administration had set in motion after the Great Recession. Surely Obama’s vice president remembers such talk. Maybe that helps explain why Biden is similarly driven to run again, even when many Democrats wish he’d retire: He’ll be damned if he’s going to let Trump, or anyone else, reap the rewards at all the ribbon-cuttings ahead.
But first Biden and his fellow Democrats have to convince more voters that his policies actually are working — that the U.S. economy really is as good as the data show.
Politics
Video: U.S. ‘Accelerating’ Military Assault in Iran, Hegseth Says
new video loaded: U.S. ‘Accelerating’ Military Assault in Iran, Hegseth Says
By Christina Kelso
March 4, 2026
Politics
US submarine sinks Iranian warship by torpedo in a first since World War II
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A U.S. submarine sank a prized Iranian warship by torpedo, the first such sinking of an enemy ship since World War II, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Wednesday morning.
Hegseth joined Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine at the Pentagon to provide an update to reporters on “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran.
“An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters,” Hegseth said. “Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War Two. Like in that war, back when we were still the War Department. We are fighting to win.”
Caine said that an Iranian vessel was “effectively neutralized” in a Navy “fast attack” using a single Mark 48 torpedo. He added that the U.S. Navy achieved “immediate effect, sending the warship to the bottom of the sea.”
WATCH HEGSETH’S ANNOUNCEMENT:
Hegseth said that the U.S. Navy sank the Iranian warship, the Soleimani. The flagship was named for Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian military officer who served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who the U.S. killed in a January 2020 drone strike during President Donald Trump’s first term.
“The Iranian Navy rests at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. Combat ineffective, decimated, destroyed, defeated. Pick your adjective,” Hegseth said. “In fact, last night we sunk their prize ship, the Soleimani. Looks like POTUS got him twice. Their navy, not a factor. Pick your adjective. It is no more.”
This map shows U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian naval forces as of March 1. (Fox News)
Hegseth also told reporters at the briefing that the U.S. and Israel will soon achieve “complete control” over Iranian airspace after Iran’s missile capabilities were drastically diminished in the four days of fighting.
US ‘WINNING DECISIVELY’ AGAINST IRAN, WILL ACHIEVE ‘COMPLETE CONTROL’ OF AIRSPACE WITHIN DAYS, HEGSETH SAYS
“More bombers and more fighters are arriving just today and now, with complete control of the skies, we will be using 500 pound, one thousand pound and 2,000 pound laser-guided precision gravity bombs, of which we have a nearly unlimited stockpile,” he said.
The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Iran and dozens in Lebanon, while U.S. officials said six American troops were killed in a fatal drone strike in Kuwait.
Thousands of travelers have been left stranded across the Middle East.
This map shows security and travel updates for Americans regarding countries in the Middle East region. (Fox News)
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Caine told reporters that the U.S. military is helping thousands of Americans stranded in the Middle East after the U.S. State Department urged citizens to leave more than a dozen countries.
Fox News Digital’s Ashley Carnahan contributed to this report.
Politics
Sen. Padilla preps for Trump trying to seize control of elections via emergency order
Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) is preparing for President Trump to declare a national emergency in order to seize control of this year’s midterm elections from the states, including by bracing his Senate colleagues for a vote in which they would be forced to either co-sign on the power grab or resist it.
In the wake of reporting last week that conservative activists with connections to the White House were circulating such an order, Padilla sent a letter to his Senate colleagues Friday stating that any such order would be “wildly illegal and unconstitutional,” and would no doubt face “extremely strict scrutiny” in the courts.
“Nevertheless, if the President does escalate his unprecedented assault on our democracy by declaring an election-related emergency, I will swiftly introduce a privileged resolution [and] force a vote in the Senate to terminate the fake emergency,” wrote Padilla, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Committee on Rules and Administration.
Padilla wrote that such an order — which could possibly “include banning mail-in voting, eliminating major voting registration methods, voter purges, and/or new document barriers for registering to vote and voting” — would clearly go beyond Trump’s authority.
“Put simply, no President has the power under the Constitution or any law to take over elections, and no declaration or order can create one out of thin air,” Padilla wrote.
The same day Padilla sent his letter, Trump was asked whether he was considering declaring a national emergency around the midterms. “Who told you that?” he asked — before saying he was not considering such an order.
The White House referred The Times to that exchange when asked Tuesday for comment on Padilla’s letter.
If Trump did declare such an emergency, a “privileged resolution,” as Padilla proposed, would require the full Senate to vote on the record on whether or not to terminate it — forcing any Senate allies of the president to own the policy politically, along with him.
Experts say there is no evidence that U.S. elections are significantly affected or swung by widespread fraud or foreign interference, despite robust efforts by Trump and his allies for years to find it.
Nonetheless, Trump has been emphatic that such fraud is occurring, particularly in blue states such as California that allow for mail-in ballots and do not have strict voter ID laws. He and others in his administration have asserted, again without evidence, that large numbers of noncitizen residents are casting votes and that others are “harvesting” ballots out of the mail and filling them out in bulk.
Soon after taking office, Trump issued an executive order purporting to require voters to show proof of U.S. citizenship before registering and barring the counting of mail-in ballots received after election day, but it was largely blocked by the courts.
Trump’s loyalist Justice Department sued red and blue states across the country for their full voter rolls, but those efforts also have largely been blocked, including in California. The FBI also raided an elections office in Georgia that has been the focus of Trump’s baseless claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him.
Trump is also pushing for the passage of the SAVE Act, a voter ID bill passed by the House, but it has stalled in the Senate.
In recent weeks, Trump has expressed frustration that his demands around voting security have not translated into changes in blue state policies ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, where his shrinking approval could translate into major gains for Democrats.
Last month, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, “I have searched the depths of Legal Arguments not yet articulated or vetted on this subject, and will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!”
Then, last week, the Washington Post reported that a draft executive order being circulated by activists with ties to Trump suggests that unproven claims of Chinese interference in the 2020 election could be used as a pretext to declare an elections emergency granting Trump sweeping authority to unilaterally institute the changes he wants to see in state-run elections.
Election experts said the Constitution is clear that states control and run elections, not with the executive branch.
Democrats have widely denounced any federal takeover of elections by Trump. And some Republicans have expressed similar concerns, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who chairs the Senate rules committee.
In the Wall Street Journal last year, McConnell warned against Trump or any Republican president asserting sweeping authority to control elections, in part because Democrats would then be empowered to claim similar authority if and when they retake power.
McConnell’s office referred The Times to that Journal opinion piece when asked about the circulating emergency order and Padilla’s resolution.
Padilla’s office said his resolution would be introduced in response to an emergency declaration by Trump, but hoped it wouldn’t be necessary.
“Instead of trying to evade accountability at the ballot box,” Padilla wrote, “the President should focus on the needs of Americans struggling to pay for groceries, health care, housing and other everyday needs and put these illegal and unconstitutional election orders in the trash can where they belong.”
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