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Schiff takes narrow lead in Senate race; tight contest for second, new poll shows

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Schiff takes narrow lead in Senate race; tight contest for second, new poll shows

The fight for second place in California’s U.S. Senate race between Rep. Katie Porter and former Dodgers star Steve Garvey appears volatile as the March 5 primary approaches, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Times.

Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank leads the field by 4 percentage points in a race that thus far has lacked much sizzle, though that could change now that the candidates have launched political ad campaigns and are set to clash in a trio of televised debates over the next two months.

According to the survey, Porter (D-Irvine) trails slightly behind Schiff and holds a narrow lead for second place over Garvey, the top Republican in the race.

Schiff is backed by 21% of likely voters, compared with 17% supporting Porter and 13% for Garvey. Schiff and Porter were essentially tied in Berkeley’s poll in October.

The other top Democrat in the race, Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland, was supported by 9% of likely voters, the poll found. About a fifth of the voters surveyed picked one of the 23 other candidates on the crowded ballot, and the remainder said they were undecided

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The top two vote-getters, regardless of party and share of the vote, will compete against each other in November. Given the Democrats’ huge registration advantage in the state, if Garvey advanced to the general election he’d be at a sizable disadvantage.

The poll also showed how divisions among voters over the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza are having an effect on the contest.

Voters will be asked to vote on two separate Senate elections on the March ballot — one for the full six-year Senate term starting in January and the other for the remaining months of the term of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

In that second race, only seven candidates are listed, and the poll found tighter margins. Schiff still leads among likely voters with 21% support. Porter has 18%, Garvey has 17%, Lee has 12% and Republican Eric Early has 11%.

The contrast between the two races shows that when the number of candidates — particularly Republicans — consolidates, Garvey’s support grows, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies poll and a longtime California pollster.

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That offers evidence that Garvey has the opportunity to finish in the top two in the March primary and qualify for the November general election, rather than having two Democrats meeting in the fall, DiCamillo said.

“The open question really is who’s going to be second, and our poll is showing Katie Porter still ahead of Garvey, although there has been movement toward Garvey in each of our polls,” he said.

“There’s an opportunity for him to coalesce the Republican votes to come his way, certainly. I think the debate will help in that regard.”

Garvey’s support has nearly doubled since Berkeley’s poll in August, while Porter’s numbers have remained about the same.

The poll found that of the four top candidates, Schiff and Porter were the only candidates whom a majority of likely voters knew enough about to have an impression. Schiff, a ubiquitous guest on cable news shows, captured the national spotlight when he led the first impeachment trial of then-President Trump.

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About 43% of likely voters had a favorable view and 31% an unfavorable view of Schiff. He’s popular among Democrats (67% have a favorable view) and unpopular among Republicans (68% have an unfavorable view).

Porter is less well known but still popular, with 39% of likely voters saying they had a favorable impression of her. Just 16% said they had an unfavorable impression of her. The rest (45%) had no opinion.

Garvey, who officially entered the race in October, wants to leverage his fame among older sports fans. The 75-year-old played for the Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, but he hasn’t taken the field since the 1980s. He’s viewed favorably among 24% of likely voters and unfavorably by 21%.The rest had no opinion of him.

Schiff’s small lead is fueled in part by his ability over the last few months to increase his backing in voter-rich Los Angeles County. In the October poll, Porter led by 4 percentage points on Schiff’s turf (22%-18%); now he is up by the same margin in the county (23%-19%). Schiff also leads by large margins in the Bay Area, Central Valley and Sacramento regions.

Porter is up by 12 percentage points (24%-12%) at home in Orange County, while the two are essentially tied in the Inland Empire and the San Diego region.

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The most potent political issue of the moment — the Israel-Hamas war— shows the very different coalitions backing each of the major candidates. Schiff has been a vocal backer of Israel and President Biden’s strategy in the region. Both Schiff and Garvey say that the United States should continue military aid to Israel.

Both Lee and Porter back a cease-fire. Lee opposes providing further military aid to Israel, and Porter has called for a “robust discussion” about military assistance.

Schiff supporters were far more likely to approve of Biden’s response to the war than Garvey or Lee supporters. Porter backers were split down the middle about how they felt about Biden’s diplomatic response in the aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre in Israel.

About 8 in 10 supporters of Garvey were more sympathetic to Israel than the Palestinians, while Lee backers are sympathetic to the Palestinians by more than 2 to 1.

About half of Schiff supporters and 40% of Porter backers said they were equally sympathetic to both sides of the conflict.

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The coalitions supporting each candidate have shifted slightly in recent months.

Porter still garners the most support from voters under 50 and those who identify as strongly liberal. Schiff is ahead with voters 65 and older and those who identify as somewhat liberal. Schiff and Porter had been essentially tied in October among voters who identify as Democrats. Now Schiff leads by 10 percentage points among that very large voting bloc.

Lee, who is one of three Black members of Congress from California, had been leading among Black voters statewide but now is essentially tied with Schiff — who leads with Asian American/Pacific Islander voters and white voters. Schiff and Porter are essentially tied among Latino voters.

One remaining big unknown is how voters respond to the barrage of television advertising that is about to start in the state.

It’s hard to assess the true political strength of any candidate in California until they start running TV ads, said Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who worked on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign team.

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Porter is “starting her TV imminently. Schiff will be right behind her by a few days. He’ll probably have more, but she’s got more charisma. So there’s a little more rocket fuel there if she catches on,” Murphy said.

“The Democratic campaigns are obsessed with Garvey. That’s not because they care about [Garvey winning in] November. If he comes in second, Schiff just won the lottery.”

Both Porter and Schiff have begun or will begin airing ads on cable and broadcast television in Bay Area-San Jose and Oakland markets this week.

Schiff’s ad focuses on some of his accomplishments in Congress. Porter’s ad is focused on how she plans “to shake up the Senate” by banning earmarks, abolishing the filibuster and prohibiting senators from trading individual stocks, among other proposals.

A Schiff spokeswoman said the campaign put “over $700,000” into its ad, while the Porter campaign told the San Francisco Chronicle it made a “seven-figure ad buy.”

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Schiff has a significant financial advantage over his competitors. Last week his campaign revealed that it had $35 million on hand after the last fundraising quarter, as of the end of the year.

Porter had about about $12 million on hand through the end of September, according to campaign disclosures. Lee was further behind with $1.3 million through September, filings show.

The Berkeley IGS poll surveyed 4,470 registered California voters considered likely to participate in the March primary. The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish on Jan. 4-8.

The results were weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error may be imprecise; however, the results for the likely voter sample have an estimated margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.

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Trump administration touts ‘most secure border in history’ as 2.5 million migrants exit US

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Trump administration touts ‘most secure border in history’ as 2.5 million migrants exit US

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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Friday that more than 2.5 million illegal immigrants have left the United States since President Donald Trump returned to office this year, citing a sweeping immigration crackdown that it says led to the “most secure border in American history.”

In a year-end report highlighting the agency’s accomplishments, DHS claimed that illegal border crossings plunged 93% year-over-year, fentanyl trafficking was cut in half, and hundreds of thousands of criminal illegal immigrants were either arrested or deported, amounting to a dramatic shift from the Biden administration.

“In less than a year, President Trump has delivered some of the most historic and consequential achievements in presidential history—and this Administration is just getting started,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement. “Under President Trump’s leadership, we are making America safe again and putting the American people first. In record-time we have secured the border, taken the fight to cartels, and arrested thousands upon thousands of criminal illegal aliens.”

EXCLUSIVE: MILLIONS OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS LEAVE US IN RECORD-BREAKING YEAR UNDER TRUMP POLICIES, DHS SAYS 

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U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said Friday that President Donald Trump “has delivered some of the most historic and consequential achievements in presidential history” since he took office on Jan. 20. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

While Trump’s first year back in office was “historic,” the administration “won’t rest until the job is done,” Noem added.

Of the 2.5 million illegal immigrants that left the country since Trump took office on Jan. 20, an estimated 1.9 million self-deported and more than 622,000 were deported, according to DHS.

The Trump administration has encouraged anyone living in the United States illegally to return to their native countries using the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Home Mobile App, which allows users to claim a complimentary plane ticket home and a $1,000 exit bonus upon their return.

BIDEN ADMIN MARKED ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT, ALLEGED MURDERER AS ‘NON-ENFORCEMENT PRIORITY,’ DHS REVEALS

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United States Customs and Border Protection sent boats to the Chicago River amid “Operation Midway Blitz” on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025.  (Chicago Tribune/Getty Images)

CBP seized nearly 540,000 pounds of drugs this year, almost a 10% increase compared to the same time frame in 2024, DHS said, adding that the U.S. Coast Guard has retrieved roughly 470,000 pounds of cocaine, or enough to kill 177 million people.

Taxpayers have been saved more than $13 billion at DHS, the agency said, noting that several agencies, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the Secret Service have returned “to their core missions.”

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Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem touted the progress made during President Trump’s first year back in office. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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Secretary Noem awarded $10,000 bonuses earlier this year to TSA officers and personnel who displayed exemplary service, overcame hardships, and displayed the utmost patriotism during the 43-day government shutdown.

DHS touted the administration’s achievements, asserting that “countless lives have been saved” this year and “the American people have been put first again.”

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Justice Department releases Epstein files, with redactions and omissions

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Justice Department releases Epstein files, with redactions and omissions

The Justice Department released a library of files on Friday related to Jeffrey Epstein, partially complying with a new federal law compelling their release, while acknowledging that hundreds of thousands of files remain sealed.

The portal, on the department’s website, includes videos, photos and documents from the years-long investigation of the disgraced financier and convicted sex offender, who died in federal prison in 2019. But upon an initial survey of the files, several of the documents were heavily redacted, and much of the database was unsearchable, in spite of a provision of the new law requiring a more accessible system.

The Epstein Files Transparency Act, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in Congress, unequivocally required the department to release its full trove of files by midnight Friday, marking 30 days since passage.

But a top official said earlier Friday that the department would miss the legal deadline Friday to release all files, protracting a scandal that has come to plague the Trump administration. Hundreds of thousands more were still under review and would take weeks more to release, said Todd Blanche, the deputy attorney general.

“I expect that we’re going to release more documents over the next couple of weeks, so today several hundred thousand and then over the next couple weeks, I expect several hundred thousand more,” Blanche told Fox News on Friday.

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The delay drew immediate condemnation from Democrats in key oversight roles.

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach), the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, accused President Trump and his administration in a statement Friday of “violating federal law as they continue covering up the facts and the evidence about Jeffrey Epstein’s decades-long, billion-dollar, international sex trafficking ring,” and said they were “examining all legal options.”

The delay also drew criticism from some Republicans.

“My goodness, what is in the Epstein files?” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who is leaving Congress next month, wrote on X. “Release all the files. It’s literally the law.”

“Time’s up. Release the files,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) wrote on X.

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Already, congressional efforts to force the release of documents from the FBI’s investigations into Epstein have produced a trove of the disgraced financier’s emails and other records from his estate.

Some made reference to Trump and added to a long-evolving portrait of the social relationship that Epstein and Trump shared for years, before what Trump has described as a falling out.

In one email in early 2019, during Trump’s first term in the White House, Epstein wrote to author and journalist Michael Wolff that Trump “knew about the girls.”

In a 2011 email to Ghislaine Maxwell, who was later convicted of conspiring with Epstein to help him sexually abuse young girls, Epstein wrote, “I want you to realize that the dog that hasn’t barked is trump. [Victim] spent hours at my house with him … he has never once been mentioned.”

Maxwell responded: “I have been thinking about that…”

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Trump has strongly denied any wrongdoing, and downplayed the importance of the files. He has also intermittently worked to block their release, even while suggesting publicly that he would not be opposed to it.

His administration’s resistance to releasing all of the FBI’s files, and fumbling with their reasons for withholding documents, was overcome only after Republican lawmakers broke off and joined Democrats in passing the transparency measure.

The resistance has also riled many in the president’s base, with their intrigue and anger over the files remaining stickier and harder to shake for Trump than any other political vulnerability.

It remained unclear Friday afternoon what additional revelations would come from the anticipated dump. Among the files that were released, extensive redactions were expected to shield victims, as well as references to individuals and entities that could be the subject of ongoing investigations or matters of national security.

That could include mentions of Trump, experts said, who was a private citizen over the course of his infamous friendship with Epstein through the mid-2000s.

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Epstein was convicted in 2008 of procuring a child for prostitution in Florida, but served only 13 months in custody in what was considered a sweetheart plea deal that saved him a potential life sentence. He was charged in 2019 with sex trafficking, and died in federal custody at a Manhattan jail awaiting trial. Epstein was alleged to have abused over 200 women and girls.

Many of his victims argued in support of the release of documents, but administration officials have cited their privacy as a primary excuse for delaying the release — something Blanche reiterated Friday.

“There’s a lot of eyes looking at these and we want to make sure that when we do produce the materials we are producing, that we are protecting every single victim,” Blanche said, noting that Trump had signed the law just 30 days prior.

“And we have been working tirelessly since that day to make sure that we get every single document that we have within the Department of Justice, review it and get it to the American public,” he said.

Trump had lobbied aggressively against the Epstein Files Transparency Act, unsuccessfully pressuring House Republican lawmakers not to join a discharge petition that would force a vote on the matter over the wishes of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). He ultimately signed the bill into law after it passed both chambers with veto-proof majorities.

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Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), who introduced the House bill requiring the release of the files, warned that the Justice Department under future administrations could pursue legal action against current officials who work to obstruct the release of any of the files, contravening the letter of the new law.

“Let me be very clear, we need a full release,” Khanna said. “Anyone who tampers with these documents, or conceals documents, or engages in excessive redaction, will be prosecuted because of obstruction of justice.”

Given Democrats’ desire to keep the issue alive politically, and the intense interest in the matter from voters on both ends of the political spectrum, the fact that the Justice Department failed to meet the Friday deadline in full was likely to stoke continued agitation for the documents’ release in coming days.

In their statement Friday, Garcia and Raskin hammered on Trump administration officials — including Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi — for allegedly interfering in the release of records.

“For months, Pam Bondi has denied survivors the transparency and accountability they have demanded and deserve and has defied the Oversight Committee’s subpoena,” they said. “The Department of Justice is now making clear it intends to defy Congress itself.”

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Among other things, they called out the Justice Department’s decision to move Maxwell, who is serving a 20-year sentence for sex trafficking, to a minimum security prison after she met with Blanche in July.

“The survivors of this nightmare deserve justice, the co-conspirators must be held accountable, and the American people deserve complete transparency from DOJ,” Garcia and Raskin said.

Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), in response to Blanche saying all the files wouldn’t be released Friday, said the transparency act “is clear: while protecting survivors, ALL of these records are required to be released today. Not just some.”

“The Trump administration can’t move the goalposts,” Schiff wrote on X. “They’re cemented in law.”

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Video: Kennedy Center Board Votes to Add Trump to Its Name

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Video: Kennedy Center Board Votes to Add Trump to Its Name

new video loaded: Kennedy Center Board Votes to Add Trump to Its Name

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Kennedy Center Board Votes to Add Trump to Its Name

President Trump’s handpicked board of trustees announced that the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts would be renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, a change that may need Congress’s approval.

Reporter: “She just posted on X, your press secretary, [Karoline Leavitt,] that the board members of the Kennedy Center voted unanimously to rename it the Trump-Kennedy Center. What is your reaction to that?” “Well, I was honored by it. The board is a very distinguished board, most distinguished people in the country, and I was surprised by it. I was honored by it.” “Thank you very much, everybody. And I’ll tell you what: the Trump-Kennedy Center, I mean —” [laughs] “Kennedy Center — I’m sorry. I’m sorry.” [cheers] “Wow, this is terribly embarrassing.” “They don’t have the power to do it. Only Congress can rename the Kennedy Center. How does that actually help the American people, who’ve already been convinced that Donald Trump is not focused on making their life better? The whole thing is extraordinary.”

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President Trump’s handpicked board of trustees announced that the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts would be renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, a change that may need Congress’s approval.

By Axel Boada

December 19, 2025

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