What to expect from Brazilian President Lula’s visit to Spain

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will journey to Madrid on Tuesday as a part of a visit that was meant to spur new EU-Brazil investments however might now concentrate on mending relations.

Lula sparked controversy final week after saying each Ukraine and Russia determined to go to conflict and accusing the US and Europe of contributing to the conflict by supplying weapons.

The remarks led to an accusation from Washington that Lula was “parroting” Chinese language and Russian propaganda.

The go to to Spain, the place Lula will meet with the prime minister, is the second leg of Lula’s first journey to Europe since beating far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in elections final yr, a changeover which EU leaders had hoped would convey Brazil nearer to the West.

Diplomatic headache for Spain?

Lula kicked off his European tour in Lisbon the place he met with Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa however the Brazilian president’s appearances had been overshadowed by his remarks the earlier week.

The Brazilian president later clarified his view in Portugal, saying that Russia had certainly invaded Ukraine and that he desires to see peace: “This conflict should not have began, Russia should not have invaded but it surely did. The very fact is that it occurred. So as an alternative of selecting sides, I wish to select a 3rd means, the development of peace.”

For Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose nation takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in July, one of many said priorities of the rotating presidency might be strengthening the EU’s political and financial ties with Latin America.

But it surely’s a process which hasn’t been made simpler by the current overseas coverage selections of the continent’s largest nation, Brazil.

Spain is an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine with the nation’s defence minister revealing it had shipped its first six Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine final week.

The Elcano Royal Institute stated final month that: “Primarily based on the out there knowledge, if we measure effort when it comes to the price of the army, financial and humanitarian assist supplied to Ukraine to this point (which amounted to 0.4% of Spanish GDP in 2022) and evaluate it to that of neighbouring nations, in relative phrases Spain’s contribution is greater than that of France, Italy or the UK”.

Give attention to deepening financial ties

However it’s unlikely that Spain and Brazil’s divisions over Ukraine will play a central function within the bilateral assembly, in response to José Javier Olivas Osuna of UNED College.

In addition to mentioning that Lula has partly walked again his feedback, Olivas highlights that: “Sánchez has adopted, for the reason that starting of his mandate, a considerably conciliatory stance in his overseas coverage.”

“The nearer ties he’s creating with Morocco and the cordial encounter he just lately had with Giorgia Meloni in Italy, regardless of their robust political discrepancies are examples of this non-confrontational strategy,” Olivas stated.

Olivas added that some members of Sanchez’s authorities, equivalent to Yolanda Díaz, repeatedly expressed their admiration for the Brazilian president. So any direct criticism of Lula might create unrest throughout the already fragile stability of his authorities.

As a substitute, Sánchez will possible attempt to focus the go to on deepening financial ties between the 2 nations.

Spain is a vital participant in Brazil’s financial system and was the 4th largest overseas direct investor within the nation in 2019. It can be a long-time proponent of the stalled EU-Mercosur commerce deal which might reduce tariffs for commerce between the only market and South American nations.

Negotiations on the deal began again in 2000 and had been accomplished in 2019 however have been held up by EU nations over environmental and home political worries.

Getting the deal over the end line would align with Spain’s push to ascertain nearer relations between the 2 buying and selling blocs. A flurry of current exercise means that an settlement could also be nearer than ever, which is another excuse we’re unlikely to see any sharp rebukes by Madrid.

Susanne Kathe Ingrid Gratius, from the political science and worldwide relations division at UAM College, says the deal makes geopolitical sense for the EU.

“The EU ought to signal this settlement to proceed to be current in additional than half of the area that China, Brazil’s fundamental export market, is now economically conquering.

“The EU is simply Latin America’s fourth largest buying and selling associate, though a key investor, it ought to attempt to get well its place forward of China and the US. The EU additionally shares many international pursuits with Brazil: local weather change, worldwide conflicts, the WTO, the choice for multilateralism and notably the strengthening of the United Nations,” she stated.

A multi-polar worldview

Brazil’s refusal to affix in with sanctions in opposition to Russia or ship arms to Ukraine aligns with its longstanding overseas coverage place of neutrality.

The nation has recommended {that a} group of non-aligned nations might certainly lead peace talks.

Carlos Malamud, a senior analyst for Latin America on the Elcano Royal Institute says that nationalism in overseas coverage may very well be the explanation for Lula’s current feedback.

“Brazilian diplomacy may be very nationalistic, it’s pleased with the autonomy of Brazil. He [Lula] thinks of himself as a vital international participant, not a regional participant, however a world participant. On this means, they attempt to stress the Brazilian place and it was one of many causes for the magnitude of Lula’s declarations final week,” Malamud stated.

Different components, like the truth that Brazil imports over 80% of its fertilisers, 1 / 4 of which come from Russia, are additionally vital influences on Brazilian diplomacy.