Russian gas imports rise despite EU phase-out

Gas imports from Russia into the European Union increased during the first months of 2026, a new report has revealed, even as the bloc formally begins a historic withdrawal from Russian natural gas.

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The EU banned Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from entering the bloc by the beginning of 2027 and mid-2027, albeit with exceptions for Hungary and Slovakia, which were allowed to tap Moscow’s gas in case of supply disruption given their landlocked position.

Yet according to the report from the EU’s agency of energy regulators (ACER), which was published on Wednesday, Russian gas imports have increased rather than declined during the reporting period, with pipeline imports rising 7 percent year-on-year compared to 2025 and LNG imports growing by 11 percent.

LNG imports accelerated further after the ban took effect in March, rising 17 percent against the same period in 2025.

The new release is ACER’s first monitoring report since the law was adopted in March. The agency attributed a rise in imports to companies accelerating deliveries under existing contracts before stricter prohibitions take effect, rather than to a reversal of EU rules.

“LNG authorised contracts for deliveries into the EU account for 20 to 32 billion cubic metres (bcm), entering the EU at the external borders of four member states: Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. In turn, long-term contracts for Russian pipeline gas remain authorised in Hungary, Slovakia and Greece,” reads the report.

New Russian gas contracts have effectively been prohibited since March 2026, while older long-term agreements are being allowed to expire gradually through 2027 to avoid market disruption.

For now, authorised contracts still represent between 45 and 55 bcm of annual supply capacity, ACER said, down from the 150-157 bcm that Moscow used to export to the EU prior to the war in Ukraine.

Not a sanctions failure

ACER argues that this trend does not indicate a growing dependence on Russia, and nor does it mean that the bloc’s sanctions against Russia are failing.

Instead, importers appear to be maximising deliveries before future restrictions and responding to global supply uncertainty after disruptions caused by the war between Israel, the US and Iran affected Middle Eastern LNG trade.

The ban on transhipments of Russian LNG via the EU to other destinations also seems to have contributed, the energy regulators argue, as some of the Russian LNG that had previously been transshipped at selected EU ports until March 2025 may have remained within the EU market.

Ronald Pinto, an LNG analyst at the market intelligence firm Kpler, endorsed ACER’s assessment, noting that Russian LNG imports into the EU reached record highs in both April and May.

“Faced with disruptions to global LNG supply, European market participants relied on other available sources of LNG, likely making full use of the flexibility available within their existing contractual volumes,” Pinto told Euronews.

However, Pinto also pointed out a slight year-on-year decline in Russian pipeline imports into the EU following maintenance in early June, suggesting a commercial reaction to the 17 June deadline banning imports of Russian pipeline gas under short-term contracts.

“This could indicate that market participants are beginning to reduce their exposure in light of the phase-out regulation,” the analyst said.

Remaining dependencies

While Russian gas now accounts for roughly 12 percent of EU gas demand, ACER says that dependence is no longer evenly spread across Europe.

Most EU countries have sharply reduced purchases since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, except for Hungary, Slovakia and Greece.

These countries, particularly Hungary and Slovakia, continue to receive Russian pipeline gas primarily through the TurkStream corridor and face the greatest challenge in replacing supplies before the 2027 deadline.

“In 2024, Hungary and Slovakia are estimated to source approximately 70–80 percent of their gas from Russia, while Russian gas is deemed representing approximately 50-55 percent of Greek gas imports,” reads the report.

The principal remaining challenge is not overall gas availability, ACEA said, but ensuring sufficient infrastructure to deliver alternative supplies into landlocked Central European markets.

“The remaining dependence on Russian gas remains unevenly distributed across member states; while most countries have significantly reduced their exposure, a small number of countries continue,” reads ACER’s report.

Diversification and new challenges

ACER concludes that Europe is significantly better prepared than during the 2022 energy crisis due to profound diversification in the gas market.

However, such diversification comes at a new cost, as the bloc has developed new dependencies, particularly with the US, Algeria, and Qatar, the latter having suffered a loss in production due to the war against Iran.

These countries are currently pressuring the EU to scrap its methane rules, which would require oil and gas producers to pay for the pollution linked to their production, with the US suggesting that the EU could lose imports.

“If things (methane rules) stay as they are today, they’re almost certain to reduce the energy flows from the United States to Europe,” US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at a press briefing on 25 June. “I think this leads to very significant problems in the EU, which already suffers from much higher than global average energy prices.”

The EU is also counting on more gas from planned Romanian Black Sea production and increasing imports through Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor.

Overall, ACER concludes that the real economic consequences of ditching Russian gas have yet to arrive, pointing instead to the complete ban on LNG imports from January 2027 and the end of pipeline imports in September 2027 as the real tests.