Namibia elections 2024: Will ruling SWAPO finally be dethroned?

Amid a wave of historic election upsets in Southern Africa, Namibians will go to the polls this week to vote in presidential and parliamentary elections set to be the most competitive and tightly contested yet.

The vote on Wednesday comes after independence-era liberation parties that long held onto power were kicked out in Botswana and crippled in South Africa earlier this year. In Mozambique, the governing Frelimo party’s recent win has led to ongoing deadly protests amid allegations of electoral manipulation.

A newcomer party is set to further loosen the grip of the governing SWAPO (South West Africa People’s Organisation) Party of Namibia. The party has governed the country since independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990.

Increasing dissatisfaction among the youth could mean that the party risks losing the presidency and parliamentary majority for the first time. Its vote share has declined rapidly over the last two elections.

However, analysts say that although SWAPO faces the same issues as its counterparts in neighbouring countries, the Namibian opposition lacks coordination.

“Opposition parties are not well organised here like in South Africa or Botswana. That might see SWAPO get off the hook and get on track to win parliament,” Graham Hopwood, the executive director of the Windhoek-based Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), told Al Jazeera.

Namibia is vast but with just 3 million people, making it one of the most-sparsely populated countries in Africa. Its harsh, arid environment is largely unsuitable for living. The country is home to the Kalahari and Namib deserts. Its capital city is Windhoek.

The November 27 vote will be the seventh since independence. Some 1.45 million people are registered to vote.

Here’s all you need to know about who is running and what’s at stake:

How will people vote?

• Some 1.45 million eligible voters will pick the president and members of the National Assembly.
• Twenty-one parties are competing for 96 parliament seats. There are 15 presidential candidates.
• Presidential candidates are required to win more than 50 percent of the vote to secure the top job.
• If no candidate wins the majority vote, the two highest-polling candidates will face off in a second election round. This has never happened in Namibia.

Who is running for president?

Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (72): She is the governing SWAPO Party’s first female presidential candidate and the favourite to win the election, although analysts say she faces strong competition. If she wins, she will become Namibia’s first female president.

Nandi-Ndaitwah was among a host of SWAPO members actively involved in the country’s fight for independence in exile. She returned from the United Kingdom to join parliament in 1990 and went on to serve as minister with several portfolios over the years. The late President Hage Geingob, who died of cancer in February, picked Nandi-Ndaitwah as deputy prime minister and had selected her as his successor before his passing.

Despite SWAPO’s incumbency, the politician faces several hurdles, analysts say. There is popular dissatisfaction with the party in a highly unequal country where housing and employment remain out of grasp for many, and where corruption is rife. Young people, in particular, don’t believe in SWAPO’s continued power.

While Geingob received more than 80 percent of the votes in 2014, his 2019 share dropped to 56 percent. SWAPO similarly lost a two-thirds majority in parliament in 2019. It was the first time that happened since 1994.

“The allure of the liberation struggle is fading for SWAPO, because many young people can’t remember it, or were born afterwards,” Hopwood of the IPPR said. Also untested is the appetite among Namibia’s male voters for a woman president, the analyst added.

Namibia is one of Africa’s most gender-equal countries. Nearly half of the seats in parliament are held by women, and Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila is female. However, the prime minister is appointed, while this would be the first time voters would be electing a woman leader.

Still, Hopwood added, Nandi-Ndaitwah is popularly seen as not corrupt, unlike some of her SWAPO counterparts.

In a special vote session on November 12, held for some 16,300 people, including those like security officials who cannot cast ballots on November 27, the politician led the other candidates with 60 percent of the vote.

Panduleni Itula (67): Itula was once a SWAPO youth leader before his exile to the UK in the 1970s. There, he studied and practised as a dentist for more than 30 years, and returned to Namibia in 2013.

In the 2019 elections, Itula shook up the political landscape when he ran as an independent candidate against late President Geingob, much to the anger of the SWAPO leadership. Itula managed to clinch a significant 29 percent of the vote. It was not enough to block Geingob’s second-term plans, but it was the best any challenger had done against the governing party.

Itula criticises the SWAPO government for what he describes as endemic corruption and general inefficiency in Namibia. He was expelled from SWAPO in 2020.

Now, he is back under his Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) party. He remains popular, especially among Namibia’s young. Itula has promised economic prosperity for the youth, and wants to reduce corporate taxes so more foreign companies can move to the country.

If young people turn out at the polls, Itula could threaten SWAPO’s chances, as the politician appeals to the youth, analyst Hopwood said. The Namibian Electoral Commission says 91 percent of eligible voters have registered to vote, with many new voters being under 30.

“SWAPO faces a serious challenge from Dr Itula and they’ll be worried ahead of the vote,” Hopwood said.

McHenry Venaani (47): He is the leader of the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), Namibia’s largest opposition party. Although the party holds 16 out of 96 seats in parliament, the most after SWAPO, Venaani only managed to clinch 5 percent of the votes in 2019 when he ran for president.

Bernadus Swartbooi (47): He leads the Landless People’s Movement (LPM) which campaigns for land redistribution to Namibians whose land was dispossessed by German settlers in the 1900s. The LPM has four seats in parliament. In 2019, Swartbooi, formerly of SWAPO, won 3 percent of the vote.

Job Amupanda (37): The university professor leads the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) movement which started off as an advocacy group. The entity focuses on land reform programmes as well, and advocates for more aggressive approaches, such as forceful takeovers of foreign-owned land.

Many absentee landowners are of German and South African descent, and live permanently in South Africa, Germany or other European countries.

What are the key issues?

Economy and inequality: Although a middle-income country rich in uranium and diamonds, Namibia’s wealth is unevenly distributed, dating back to a legacy of apartheid and violent colonialism. It is the second most unequal country in the world after South Africa.

Poverty levels are high, with more than 64 percent of the population living below $5.50 daily according to the World Bank. The majority Black Namibian population and minority ethnic groups are especially at a disadvantage.

A punishing drought, meanwhile, is ravaging the country’s food production. It is the worst in a century, according to the World Food Programme. Some 48 percent of the population need urgent food assistance, and 17 percent of children under five are stunted.

Unemployment: About 43 percent of Namibia’s youth are unemployed, one of the highest rates on the continent, according to official numbers last released in 2016. Nandi-Ndaitwah of SWAPO has pledged to spend about 85 billion Namibian dollars ($4.7bn) over the next five years to create more than 500,000 jobs, but there are questions about how the funds will be sourced.

The IPC’s Itula, meanwhile, wants to liberalise the economy and allow more foreign companies in.

Corruption: Successive SWAPO governments are accused of deep-rooted corruption. The fish-rot scandal that broke in 2019 still causes a stench. Fishing is lucrative in Namibia and accounts for 20 percent of export revenue.

Several top government officials, including late President Geingob, were implicated after WikiLeaks released files revealing how officials ran schemes to control valuable fishing quotas before diverting them to an Iceland company for kickbacks. Six people, including two ministers from SWAPO, were jailed.

Although Vice President Nandi-Nanditwah is not implicated, SWAPO has come under fire for allowing some party members who are still being investigated to campaign for her ahead of the election, like SWAPO’s Youth League Secretary Ephraim Nekongo.

Housing crisis and land reform: The inequality spills over into land and property ownership. Namibia urgently needs more than half a million homes to solve a severe housing shortage, but most of the population would not qualify for a mortgage because of poverty and high property prices, according to the World Economic Forum. Close to half a million people live in shacks and informal housing units in Windhoek.

Leftist parties like the Affirmative Repositioning movement have promised to construct 300,000 houses over five years. Meanwhile, Itula’s IPC says it will declare a state of emergency on housing.

A land reform programme, which aimed to buy back land from mostly white farm owners to resettle poorer Namibians, has not run smoothly. Farmers are reluctant to sell land, or sell it at inflated prices, making it difficult for the government to acquire adequate land for resettlement purposes.

Parties like the AR have taken what analysts call a “radical position”, promising to forcibly reclaim some 1.4 million hectares (3,500,000) acres of land from foreigners and absentee landlords. The PDM has also promised to provide free land plots to the people.

What else?

Polls on Wednesday will close at 9pm CAT (19:00 GMT).

Results could be announced on the following day, November 28.

However, with the electoral commission reverting to ballot papers, the results might take a few more days to emerge. Numerous vote tallying problems in the 2019 elections marred the use of electronic card readers and prompted the switch.

Analysts say Wednesday’s vote is likely to be peaceful as elections have been in the past. However, some experts worry that delayed results could result in allegations of fraud or even pockets of violence, as was seen in Mozambique.