Is Oman’s hard work with Yemen and Saudi Arabia paying off?

On April 9, Saudi and Omani delegations met Houthi representatives in Sanaa to debate a everlasting ceasefire in Yemen. After greater than eight years of warfare within the impoverished nation, the conferences have led some to have cautious optimism that the preventing in Yemen could also be winding down.

Though the general public nonetheless doesn’t know a lot concerning the pending settlement, sources have indicated that it could embody a six-month ceasefire, a reopening of borders and ports, cost of salaries for Yemenis throughout the nation, reparation and compensation measures, and a withdrawal of all overseas forces from Yemen earlier than a political course of begins.

Such developments, ought to they be true, would present the extent to which Omani efforts to carry a negotiated resolution to the struggle in Yemen have been productive.

As the one Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that refused to participate in army operations in Yemen, Oman has had a novel balancing position within the Arabian Peninsula. Representatives of the completely different Yemeni factions, Saudi, Iranian, Russian, and American diplomats, in addition to United Nations officers, have been to Muscat a number of instances lately to debate the Yemeni file.

“For the reason that starting … Oman has been the voice of motive, saying early on that army intervention wasn’t the reply in Yemen however somewhat peaceable diplomatic political talks,” Afrah Nasser, a non-resident fellow at Arab Heart Washington DC, informed Al Jazeera. “Eight years on, Oman is demonstrating that it has at all times been proper.”

The Saudis appeared able to resolve their battle with the Iran-backed Houthis as a result of the price of continued warfare was too excessive. “Saudi Arabia has determined they need out of this struggle,” Abdullah Baabood, an Omani scholar and visiting professor at Waseda College in Tokyo, informed Al Jazeera. “It’s too pricey for them, economically and politically.”

Muscat: Diplomatic heavy lifter

When an settlement between longtime rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia was introduced final month, China, justifiably, acquired huge quantities of credit score for brokering it, main some commentators to attribute a lot of the current progress in Yemen to Beijing.

However with regards to Riyadh-Tehran relations and the way they mirror on the state of affairs in Yemen, it was Muscat’s years of diplomatic heavy lifting that permit progress occur.

It has been working to bridge variations between the events concerned since 2015. With Iraq, it facilitated talks between the Saudis and Iranians that started in Baghdad in April 2021.

“The Omanis have been crucial companions in efforts to advance an finish to the Yemen battle … particularly in sustaining an open dialogue with the Houthis,” Gerald Feierstein, former US ambassador to Yemen, informed Al Jazeera. “Their mediation of Saudi-Houthi talks has been central to advancing initiatives to resolve excellent points associated to the coalition intervention within the Yemen battle.”

Oman enabled Saudi Arabia to pursue a dignified exit from Yemen, after reaching a compromise with the Houthis turned extra essential. With Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman centered on growing the dominion and making Imaginative and prescient 2030 profitable, drone and rocket assaults from Yemen made Saudi Arabia a much less enticing possibility for overseas corporations and traders.

“Beforehand, Riyadh taunted Oman for refusing to affix the Saudi-led coalition in 2015, Saudi now recognises that Muscat’s position is essential in its efforts to carry the struggle to a detailed,” mentioned Veena Ali-Khan, a Yemen researcher on the Worldwide Disaster Group. “In Muscat’s view, Saudi is lastly listening to them and prioritising a diplomatic strategy, after eight years of battle.”

By rising nearer to Saudi Arabia since Sultan Haitham took the helm in early 2020 and sustaining relations with the Houthis and their backers in Tehran, Muscat is in a novel place vis-à-vis the Yemen state of affairs. The April 2022 truce and its extensions, for instance, have been solely doable due to Oman.

“Oman has performed a vital position on this by getting the 2 sides to speak and opening the … alternative for them to barter and, at instances, perhaps placing some stress on the Houthis to come back to an settlement,” defined Baabood.

“Oman’s persistence in exhibiting the significance of peace talks is lastly yielding outcomes,” added Nasser. “Apart from performing as a peacemaker and bringing the opponents to direct talks, Oman’s position right now is … like a face-saver. The opponents have been determined to have this third occasion that might save their faces … an finish to the battle should include no victory or loss introduced.”

Oman’s position within the Center East

Muscat’s friends-of-all overseas coverage has outlined the nation regionally since Sultan Qaboos ascended to the throne in 1970 – Oman has by no means severed relations with any nation since Qaboos took energy and the sultanate has a file of neutrality in regional and worldwide conflicts.

“Omanis have set a file for efficient but in addition quiet diplomacy for almost 5 many years and demonstrated uncommon accomplishments so far,” Joseph A Kéchichian, a senior fellow on the King Faisal Centre in Riyadh, informed Al Jazeera.

Sharing a 300km (187-mile) border with Yemen, Oman will at all times have vested pursuits in its neighbour. “Yemen is the sultanate’s again yard and … one among 4 strategic areas of concern [besides Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia], so what occurs south of the border issues an awesome deal. Sultan Haitham and his group of advisers, most of whom have been skillfully educated by his predecessor, have been closely concerned in secret discussions with the Houthis,” mentioned Kéchichian.

What Oman seeks in Yemen is stability that doesn’t threaten the sultanate’s personal safety. “For Oman, a profitable decision of the battle would imply an finish to the civil struggle in Yemen, a return to some semblance of nationwide governance in Sanaa that will preserve good relations with all of Yemen’s neighbours, and alternatives for Yemenis to realize financial stability,” defined Feierstein.

“From a nationwide safety perspective, the Omanis wish to see safety on their border with Yemen strengthened and stability, specifically in Yemen’s japanese governorates of Mahra and Hadramawt, to stop any spillover into Oman,” he added.

“Muscat needs the form of peace and safety that can eradicate regional tensions and, consequently, encourage the creation of wealth for everybody,” Kéchichian informed Al Jazeera. “Its agenda … is to be on pleasant phrases with buddies and on appropriate phrases with foes.

It seeks concord when doable however believes that it should at all times function from a place of power, which is why it takes its defence duties severely, even when budgetary constraints restrict its outlook. It is a subtle strategy that goals to indicate outcomes to its residents, neighbours, and world powers. The outcomes are rewarding because the nation earns worldwide respect.”