How Venezuela’s recent history can inform its present-day election crisis

Already, the toll of the current political unrest has been high. Since the July election, at least 23 people have died in Venezuela’s protests, according to Victim Monitor, a human rights group. Foro Penal, meanwhile, has documented 1,581 arrests.

Some critics have speculated that, if Maduro continues to lose popular support, the Venezuelan military could turn on him.

Even the opposition’s presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, urged the country’s security forces to “fulfil their constitutional duties” and not “repress the people”.

Straka, the historian, pointed out that the Venezuelan military has turned its back on leaders in the past, most notably in the case of the dictator Perez Jimenez.

That the military played a role in his downfall took “everyone by surprise”, Straka explained. “The armed forces — Perez Jimenez’s main support — were divided.”

But that outcome is less likely in Maduro’s case, according to Gunson, the Venezuela expert at the International Crisis Group. He indicated that some military leaders could face prosecution without Maduro’s protection.

“If the military were to desert Maduro, his government would fall,” Gunson told Al Jazeera. “But the high command is unlikely to do that in the near future at least because it would threaten their own personal positions.”

In recent weeks, the military even reaffirmed its support for Maduro amid the election crisis.

On August 25, the Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) pledged their “absolute loyalty and subordination to the commander-in-chief of the FANB, President Nicolas Maduro”.

Still, Gunson believes the military might not be as unified as it appears.

“There is no reason to believe that members of the security forces voted any differently from the rest of the population,” Gunson said, pointing to the widespread support for Venezuela’s opposition coalition.

“There are plenty of anecdotes to support the thesis that many members of the National Guard and the police sympathise with demonstrators,” he added. “In recent years, thousands of members of the armed forces have deserted, and many have left the country.”

The strength of the opposition has given Tenreiro — the woman who witnessed the fall of Perez Jimenez over 60 years ago — a measure of hope. She said she wishes to see another authoritarian leader topple in her lifetime.

“I don’t want to leave this world before seeing the start of change [in Venezuela] once again.”