Health rumours leave Palestinians wondering who will follow Abbas

Earlier than a deliberate assembly with US President Joe Biden on Friday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has been again within the public eye in latest weeks, making appearances at occasions, together with a visit to Algeria earlier in July, the place he had a uncommon assembly with the chief of his Palestinian rival Hamas, Ismail Haniya.

The photographs of the 87-year-old chief have softened rumours final month that Abbas was significantly in poor health, however questions stay.

Abbas, who has spent 17 years as president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), has beforehand had prostate most cancers, which he has recovered from, and has had two cardiac catheters within the final 10 years. He has acquired medical remedy the world over, in Jordan, Germany and america.

A excessive stage of secrecy surrounds data concerning Abbas’s well being standing.

Abbas’s well being situation has raised native, regional and worldwide considerations, because the query of who will succeed the Palestinian president stays.

“We’re involved seeing how the Palestinian Authority dealt with the rumours earlier this month; there was a scarcity of transparency, leaving every thing open for rumours and conspiracy theories,” a senior worldwide diplomat working within the occupied West Financial institution, who didn’t want to be named, informed Al Jazeera, “I’m anxious concerning the West Financial institution; I see Hebron, Nablus and Jenin not wanting good, and I might fear about attainable chaos, after which if Israel decides to intervene extra forcefully, there might be a lot violence.”

Abbas’s succession has additionally change into a crucial concern for his interior circle, in gentle of the intensification of the competitors between the leaders of Fatah, the social gathering Abbas leads.

What occurs when the president’s chair turns into vacant is unclear – presidential elections might imply a win for Fatah’s rivals, Hamas.

Elections current a complete host of different issues too; Palestinians resident in occupied East Jerusalem are unable to take part, as Israel won’t allow them to, and the legacy of the 2007 preventing between Fatah and Hamas, which resulted in Fatah dominance over the West Financial institution and Hamas answerable for Gaza, additionally complicates issues.

“The Fatah-Hamas divide and the Jerusalem concern make it tough to carry elections or have a clean authorized transition of Abbas’s authorities to his successor,” stated Ghassan al-Khatib, a Palestinian political analyst and vice chairman of Birzeit College. “Individuals are anxious about what would possibly end result from the emptiness of the president’s place, and different Palestinian leaders disagree greater than they agree.”

Former Palestinian Overseas Minister Nasser al-Kidwa blamed weak Palestinian establishments for the predicament.

“If the establishments – the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organisation – had remained robust, there could be no concern,” al-Kidwa informed Al Jazeera. “After [former Palestinian President] Yasser Arafat handed away in 2004, there was a Palestinian Legislative Council, Palestinian Nationwide Council and the rule of regulation. Now there is no such thing as a regulation, and no establishments, which is why individuals are anxious.”

“There isn’t a different to holding elections to decide on the subsequent president,” he added.

Potential candidates

The outcomes of a public opinion ballot performed in late June by the Palestinian Heart for Coverage and Survey Analysis in Ramallah counsel a major drop in Abbas’s assist, and elevated requires him to step down.

If presidential elections had been held, with Abbas and Haniya because the candidates, solely 49 p.c of the respondents to the ballot stated they might prove to vote, with Haniya the selection of 55 p.c of those that would, and Abbas solely attracting the assist of 33 p.c.

Different Fatah grandees, akin to Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh and Mohammed Dahlan would additionally lose out to Haniya.

Nonetheless, there’s one Fatah determine who has assist – the imprisoned Marwan Barghouti.

Barghouti, who’s serving 5 life sentences in an Israeli jail after being convicted in 2004 of “terrorism”, beat Haniya within the ballot 61 p.c to 34, and will increase the turnout to 66 p.c, exhibiting his reputation.

Barghouti is thought to be a pacesetter of the primary and second Palestinian intifadas, and has remained in style regardless of being behind bars.

Barghouti’s youthful brother, Muqbil, confirmed to Al Jazeera that Barghouti deliberate to run for the presidential election each time it’s held.

Nonetheless, it’s unsure that the 63-year-old can be launched by the Israelis as his reputation amongst Palestinians, and the potential rallying impact round him, is worrying for Tel Aviv.

The Israeli place

The query of Abbas’s successor is a matter of concern for Israel, which worries that Hamas might be able to take benefit.

“There may be nice concern among the many Israeli safety and army providers about what would possibly occur after Abbas,” stated David Hacham, the previous adviser for Arab affairs on the Israeli Ministry of Defence. “The safety and army institution have developed a number of situations, essentially the most harmful of which is the prevalence of an armed battle between the contenders for Abbas’s succession, which ends up in a state of safety instability within the Palestinian territories.”

On the identical time, Israel has determined to not present any public assist for any specific candidate, within the information that any backing will do extra harm to the candidate than good.

The truth is, nevertheless, that Israeli backing for any candidate would persuade the US to assist the determine, and encourage the assist of Arab states too.

A Hamas candidate, alternatively, is one the Israelis will surely not assist. The motion’s win within the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections led to financial sanctions from Israel, the US, and others.

Bassam Naim, a distinguished member of the group, informed Al Jazeera that his motion referred to as without spending a dime presidential and legislative elections that might allow the Palestinian individuals to decide on their future president, and a pacesetter able to resolving the battle with Israel.

Nonetheless, Naim was not keen to go any additional than that.

“Hamas might nominate a determine for the Palestinian presidency if presidential elections are organised,” Naim stated. “However speaking concerning the Hamas management’s determination on this regard is untimely in the meanwhile.”