French Far-Right Candidate Vows to Fight for Identity as Prospects Fade

PARIS — With its immense forecourt opening onto a panoramic view of the Eiffel Tower, the Trocadéro Plaza in Paris presents a super setting to revive a flagging marketing campaign for the French presidency. Twice prior to now decade, tens of hundreds of individuals have flocked there, responding to calls from embattled right-wing contenders in search of assist.

A 3rd try got here on Sunday, when Éric Zemmour, the far-right pundit turned presidential candidate, held a large rally on the Trocadéro designed to halt his slide within the polls, precisely two weeks earlier than the primary spherical of voting.

“I’ll combat to reconquer our identification, I’ll combat to regain our prosperity,” Mr. Zemmour instructed tens of hundreds of supporters who waved a sea of French flags below a blazing solar.

Sunday’s rally, one of many greatest of this 12 months’s elections, had all the trimmings of a last-ditch try to revitalize a marketing campaign that began with a bang after which regularly stalled, as Mr. Zemmour, 63, acquired slowed down in controversies and struggled to broaden his voter base.

And shake it up he did. For months, by his lively presence on social and information media in addition to his frenzied rallies, he formed the general public debate by pushing it additional to the suitable. He popularized the idea of the “nice substitute” — a racist conspiracy idea stating that white Christian populations are being changed by nonwhite immigrants — rewrote a few of the worst episodes from France’s previous and promoted divisive concepts corresponding to a proposal to pressure dad and mom to provide their youngsters “conventional” French names.

His meteoric rise within the polls — he briefly ranked second in mid-February — turned him into an sudden runoff contender and a critical risk for Marine Le Pen, the longtime chief of the far proper, and Valérie Pécresse, the candidate of the mainstream proper.

However his scores have regularly slipped for a month, placing him in fourth or fifth place, after the conflict in Ukraine uncovered two of his greatest flaws: his previous sympathy for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and his neglect of the difficulty of financial inequalities.

In a 2018 interview, Mr. Zemmour stated he “would dream” of a French equal of Mr. Putin, praising his try to revive the grandeur of “an empire in decline” — phrases which have haunted him since Russia invaded Ukraine, severely denting his credibility on worldwide affairs. The candidate additionally provoked an outcry after he first opposed welcoming Ukrainian conflict refugees, saying it could additional “destabilize France, which is already overwhelmed — I do say overwhelmed — by immigration.”

However it’s his failure to reply to the financial hardship created by the conflict that has most affected his standing. Mr. Zemmour has lengthy defended liberal positions on the financial system, which have achieved little to allay voters’ fears about rising vitality costs. Against this, his rivals, Ms. Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left candidate, have benefited from this concern, having lengthy campaigned in opposition to financial inequality.

“He has centered a lot on identification, immigration and safety,” stated Bruno Cautrès, a political scientist on the Middle for Political Analysis at Sciences Po college in Paris, “that it has prevented him from embodying anything within the eyes of the voters.”

Within the fall, Mr. Zemmour had pinned his hopes on his capability to enchantment to “the patriotic bourgeoisie and the working lessons.” However attendance at Sunday’s rally instructed that he primarily attracted bourgeois voters.

“Sovereignty, grandeur, identification — this man thinks precisely like me,” stated Benoît Bergeron, a 68-year-old Zemmour supporter sporting a tweed jacket, who had crossed the Seine from his upscale Left Financial institution neighborhood to affix the rally.

Mr. Bergeron stated the final time he had joined an indication was to assist La Manif Pour Tous, a big motion opposing same-sex marriage that upended France in 2013. A number of supporters within the crowd stated Mr. Zemmour was one of the best consultant of a conservative era that emerged after that motion.

Mr. Cautrès stated Mr. Zemmour had a restricted voter base and scored properly primarily amongst segments of the higher center class, the aged and conservative Catholics. “It’s not one thing that propels you to the second spherical of the presidential election,” he stated.

In opposition to a backdrop of sinking ballot numbers, Mr. Zemmour has tried to refocus the talk round immigration by toughening his already polarizing stance. Warning that France will grow to be “a Muslim nation” by 2060 if present migration ranges persist, he promised final week to create a “Ministry of Remigration” and deport 100,000 “undesirable foreigners” annually, if elected.

However the proposal solely triggered additional controversy and accentuated his picture as an excessive politician. “He didn’t run a marketing campaign to convey individuals collectively, however he ran one which was extra divisive, extra provocative every single day,” stated Robert Ménard, a French radical right-wing mayor and longtime acquaintance of Mr. Zemmour who helps Ms. Le Pen.

On the rally, Mr. Zemmour’s speech was crammed with populist overtones, with assaults in opposition to the information media and the elites, who he stated the place making an attempt to undermine his candidacy. “Nothing and nobody will steal this election from us,” he instructed the roaring crowd.

The candidate’s radical messaging has additionally had the sudden impact of sanitizing the picture of his direct far-right competitor, Ms. Le Pen, a objective she has lengthy been pursuing. Ms. Le Pen is now polling at 20 % in voting intentions, about twice the speed for Mr. Zemmour, and seems on observe to achieve a runoff with the incumbent, President Emmanuel Macron.

“He has normalized Marine Le Pen,” Mr. Ménard stated.

Maybe the largest influence of Mr. Zemmour’s marketing campaign will probably be its lasting impact on French politics, which have more and more lurched to the suitable. Polls present that two-thirds of French individuals immediately are anxious concerning the “nice substitute.” Relying on his efficiency within the first spherical of voting, Mr. Zemmour may additionally pressure a whole reshuffle of the French proper. A number of leaders of Ms. Le Pen’s and Ms. Pécresse’s events have already joined his marketing campaign.

A number of supporters on the Trocadéro on Sunday stated they didn’t belief the polls. “We’re at a turning level,” stated Stéphanie Vitry, an organization supervisor, who was satisfied Mr. Zemmour would come out forward in two weeks. In any other case, she stated, “it’s the top of France.”

However some didn’t cover that they’d largely given up hope that the far-right candidate would attain a second spherical.

“I confess that I’m not very optimistic,” stated Oxana Herbeth, 23, a former Le Pen voter who had turned to Mr. Zemmour, attracted by his powerful line on immigration and safety.

It didn’t assist that the Trocadéro has additionally been symbolically related to the downfall of the French proper. The previous two presidential candidates of the center-right social gathering Les Républicains held huge rallies there — earlier than being defeated on Election Day.

“To assemble the suitable on the very place the place it has failed,” Mr. Ménard stated. “Unusual concept.”