Far From Defeated, Putin Intends to Escalate War in Ukraine

Austria’s chancellor visited President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday — the primary Western chief to see him in particular person for the reason that Ukraine invasion — and mentioned he got here away feeling not solely pessimistic about peace prospects however fearing that Mr. Putin supposed to drastically intensify the brutality of the battle.

Describing Mr. Putin as dismissive of atrocities in Ukraine, the visiting chancellor, Karl Nehammer, mentioned it was clear that Russian forces had been mobilizing for a large-scale assault in jap Ukraine’s Donbas area, the following section of a battle now in its seventh week.

“The battle being threatened can’t be underestimated in its violence,” Mr. Nehammer mentioned in a information convention after the 75-minute assembly at Mr. Putin’s residence exterior Moscow that the customer described as blunt and direct.

The Austrian chancellor mentioned he had advised the Russian president that so long as individuals had been dying in Ukraine, “the sanctions in opposition to Russia will keep in place and can be toughened additional.”

The Kremlin, enjoying down the assembly’s significance in a terse assertion, mentioned solely that it was “not lengthy by the requirements of latest instances.”

At the same time as Mr. Nehammer was visiting, Russian forces had been bombarding Ukrainian cities and cities, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine mentioned “tens of hundreds are lifeless” in Mariupol, the besieged southern metropolis that has been the scene of probably the most intense destruction of the battle.

And Mr. Putin, regardless of Russia’s navy blunders within the battle, and for all of the Western efforts to ostracize him, nonetheless appeared in command of the disaster. He has severely repressed any dissent and benefited from widespread home assist, persevering with revenues from oil and fuel gross sales to Europe, the implicit backing of China and the refusal of a lot of the world to hitch sanctions in opposition to Russia.

Many commentators within the West had criticized the Austrian chancellor — his nation is a member of the European Union however not of NATO — for having visited Moscow in any respect, seemingly enjoying into Mr. Putin’s narrative that American-led efforts to isolate Russia would essentially finish in failure.

Mr. Nehammer advised reporters afterward that he had tried to confront Mr. Putin with the horrors of battle and of the battle crimes that Russian troops are accused of getting dedicated within the Kyiv suburb of Bucha and elsewhere. He mentioned he additionally had advised Mr. Putin in regards to the destroyed Russian tanks he noticed on a latest go to to Ukraine, to clarify the large lack of life that Russia was struggling.

Mr. Nehammer mentioned that Mr. Putin had brushed apart the accusations of battle crimes as having been staged by Ukraine.

On the finish, Mr. Putin advised him: “It will be higher if it” — the battle — “ended quickly,” Mr. Nehammer mentioned, however the that means of these phrases was unclear, since they might both sign that Mr. Putin was ready for additional peace talks or that he might be readying a fast and brutal assault within the Donbas, the place Russian-backed separatists have been combating Ukraine’s navy since 2014.

“We will haven’t any illusions: President Putin has completely adopted the logic of battle, and is appearing accordingly,” Mr. Nehammer mentioned. “This is the reason I consider it’s so necessary to completely confront him with the information of the battle.”

How rather more brutal the battle might turn into was signaled in an interview with Eduard Basurin, a separatist commander, aired on Russian state tv. Mr. Basurin mentioned that with Ukrainian forces ensconced in underground fortifications at a metal plant in Mariupol, storming the redoubt didn’t make sense. As a substitute, he mentioned, Russian forces wanted to first block the exits after which “flip to the chemical troops who will discover a strategy to smoke the moles out of their holes.”

Mr. Putin was silent on Monday however was anticipated to talk publicly on Tuesday, when he’ll journey to the Vostochny spaceport in Russia’s far east with President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus, his ally, to mark the annual Cosmonauts’ Day.

The Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has more and more been framed by Mr. Putin as not in opposition to that nation, however in opposition to the West — particularly, the US, because the supposed patron of Mr. Zelensky’s authorities and its aspirations to flee Russia’s sphere of affect as a former Soviet republic.

Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s international minister, mentioned in a Russian tv interview that aired on Monday that what the Kremlin calls its “particular operation” in Ukraine is geared toward rolling again American affect — which the Russian authorities characterizes as the basis of the world’s ills.

“Our particular navy operation is designed to place an finish to the reckless enlargement, and the reckless course towards full dominance, of the US,” Mr. Lavrov mentioned.

The USA and European Union have imposed more and more extreme financial sanctions on Russia over the invasion and are sending weapons to Ukraine’s navy. However they don’t need to get drawn right into a battle with Russia. And the European Union stays reluctant to ban Russian oil and pure fuel, which stay vital to the bloc’s personal financial well being.

E.U. international ministers met on Monday in Luxembourg and the bloc’s international coverage chief, Josep Borrell Fontelles, mentioned that “nothing is off the desk, together with sanctions on oil and fuel.”

Whereas ministers mentioned a potential phaseout of Russian oil, extra simply replaceable from different suppliers than fuel, the assembly additionally laid naked the bloc’s divisions. Austria, Hungary and Germany opposed any effort, for now, to limit Russian fuel imports.

Nonetheless, European Union leaders had been anticipated to approve one other 500 billion euros in funds to repay member states for sending weapons to Ukraine, which might imply a complete of 1.5 billion euros up to now — almost equal to the $1.7 billion in weapons that the US has approved.

Russian troops, having retreated from northern Ukraine after a failed effort final month to succeed in the capital, Kyiv, have been resupplying and regrouping in Russia and Belarus to allow them to be part of the battle in jap Ukraine. However Western officers mentioned on Monday that effort should take a while.

Ukrainian officers have been warning since final week that civilians in east Ukraine ought to flee whereas they will. Mr. Zelensky warned that tens of hundreds of Russian troops had been getting ready a renewed assault there.

If and when the southern port metropolis of Mariupol lastly falls, Russian troops can transfer north to fulfill up with Russian troops making an attempt to maneuver south from Izyum and attempt to encircle the majority of Ukraine’s military, which is concentrated additional east, mentioned Mathieu Boulègue, an knowledgeable on the Russian navy at Chatham Home, the London analysis establishment.

That’s simpler mentioned than performed, Mr. Boulègue mentioned, because the battered Russian troops await reinforcements. The Ukrainians, he mentioned, had been making an attempt to dam the Russians and manage a counterattack that might be extra difficult than the combating round Kyiv, which had compelled the Russians to retreat.

Given the experiences of Russian atrocities at Bucha, Kramatorsk, Mariupol and different cities, negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian governments are on maintain.

However few consider that the antagonists are prepared for actual talks, as a result of Mr. Putin wants to indicate extra navy positive factors and since the Ukrainians consider that they will nonetheless repel the Russians, mentioned Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO.

“The Ukrainians suppose they’ve a chance not simply to stop Russia from gaining extra floor within the east however expelling them from there, whereas Putin wants to seek out one thing he can promote as a victory,” Mr. Daalder mentioned. “So diplomacy isn’t going anyplace.”

If and when talks on a settlement lastly happen, Mr. Putin will inevitably be a part of them, mentioned François Heisbourg, a French protection knowledgeable. Diplomats cope with leaders of governments, regardless of how distasteful, he mentioned.

The West additionally hopes that growing financial ache will encourage Mr. Putin to scale down the battle and finish it. Russia is already is “deep recession” and its economic system is predicted to shrink by 11 % this yr, the World Financial institution reported.

However the influence is extreme on Ukraine, too. The financial institution forecast that Ukraine’s economic system would shrink by about 45 % this yr due to the Russian invasion and the influence of a “deep humanitarian disaster.”

Mr. Putin initially named one purpose of the battle because the “denazification” of Ukraine, falsely labeling as Nazis those that resist Russian domination. An article on Monday in a Russian state newspaper, Parlamentskaya Gazeta, written by an adviser to the chairman of Russia’s decrease home of Parliament, expanded on that idea to outline the enemy as “Ukrainian-American neo-Nazism.”

The battle additionally included a “chilly battle” in opposition to enemies of the state inside Russia, the article mentioned, including: “The denazification of Ukraine is unattainable with no parallel denazification of Russia.”

It was the newest signal that, even because the battle in Ukraine rages, Mr. Putin is priming his safety equipment for an ever-widening intolerance for dissent. The crackdown has accelerated in latest weeks, with pro-war Russians delivering academics and neighbors who converse out in opposition to the battle.

Final Friday, Russia closed among the final remaining unbiased establishments of civil society, together with the Carnegie Moscow Middle and the Moscow places of work of Human Rights Watch and Amnesty Worldwide. It expanded the observe of naming authorities critics as “international brokers,” for the primary time including a well-liked musician to the record: the rapper Ivan Dryomin, 25, who goes by the title Face.

Steven Erlanger reported from Brussels and Anton Troianovski from Istanbul. Reporting was contributed by Monika Pronczuk in Brussels.