Explained: Denmark’s surprising U-turn on the EU common defence policy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to be prompting the European Union to drop all of its long-standing taboos about defence, one after the other.

For the primary time ever, the bloc is financing the acquisition of deadly weapons for nations which can be beneath assault, a choice that European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen has described as a “watershed second”.

For the reason that EU treaties stop the frequent finances from bankrolling navy operations, the EU will present Ukraine with a €500 million fund beneath an off-budget instrument generally known as the European Peace Facility.

In the meantime, Germany has drastically reversed its post-WWII coverage that prevented the nation from sending deadly weapons to battle zones and is equipping the Kyiv authorities with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 anti-aircraft Stinger missiles.

Finland and Sweden, two historically non-aligned nations, are additionally delivering arms to assist the Ukrainian military resist the Russian invasion. Even Switzerland, a non-EU member state, is ditching its sacrosanct neutrality to slap painful sanctions on the Kremlin.

“European safety and defence has developed extra within the final six days than within the final twenty years,” von der Leyen instructed the European Parliament final week, reflecting on the transformative occasions that adopted the Russian assault on 24 February.

Now, one other European nation is having a change of coronary heart.

The Danish authorities led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has introduced the nation will maintain a referendum to rethink the 30-year-old opt-out clause that has thus far stored Denmark away from the EU frequent defence coverage.

The referendum can be held on June 1.

Frederiksen additionally stated the federal government will increase its defence spending to satisfy NATO’s 2% of GDP goal by 2033, up from its present 1.44% share. The final time the nation surpassed the two% mark was in 1989.

“Putin’s pointless and brutal assault on Ukraine has heralded a brand new period in Europe, a brand new actuality,” Frederiksen stated at a press convention in Copenhagen.

“Ukraine’s battle is not only Ukraine’s, it is a take a look at of energy for every part we imagine in, our values, democracy, human rights, peace and freedom.”

A doc signed by Frederiksen’s Social Democrats alongside 4 different events speaks of a “new safety scenario” that should be confronted “with our allies in NATO and the EU.” In addition to adjustments to the nation’s defence coverage, the events contact upon Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian gasoline.

A tailored provision

For Denmark, the U-turn is momentous.

The opt-out clause was launched at Denmark’s behest as a part of the 1992 Edinburg Settlement, a textual content specifically designed to permit the Danish nation to ratify the 1991 Maastricht Treaty, which Danish residents had narrowly rejected with 50.7% of voters towards.

The settlement proposed tailored provisions that clarified Denmark’s participation in 4 new fields the place the EU had begun to deepen its integration: citizenship, justice and residential affairs, the financial union (Denmark rebuffed the euro and stored the nationwide krone), and defence.

Right now, the opt-out continues to be in place and applies to the so-called Frequent Defence and Safety Coverage (CDSP), one of many predominant components of the bloc’s Frequent International and Safety Coverage (CFSP).

Consequently, Denmark, which is a NATO member, removes itself from all international coverage choices which have defence implications. Through the in-person conferences of international affairs ministers, the Danish consultant normally leaves the room when defence matters are broached.

All of the remaining 26 member states interact absolutely within the CDSP.

In apply, this implies the Nordic nation participates in collective motion associated to, for instance, financial sanctions, because it has been the case towards Russia, however stays clear on the subject of navy deployments, reminiscent of Operation IRINI, created to implement the United Nations arms embargo on Libya.

These abroad missions are carried out beneath the management and coordination of the EU however their navy forces are seconded from member states on a case-by-case foundation.

Over 5,000 EU navy and civilian employees are presently stationed in CSDP missions throughout Europe, Africa and Asia, with most of them centered on disaster administration. A complete of 37 operations have been launched since 2003; virtually half of them nonetheless ongoing.

If Danish residents vote to repeal the opt-out clause, the nation will change into immersed within the frequent defence coverage and Danish troops can be deployed world wide beneath a centralised command.

‘Wake-up name’

Up to now, the CSDP has been a “technical venture,” centred on industrial cooperation and procurement somewhat than on constructing a correct EU military, a purpose nonetheless thought-about divisive and distant, says Bruno Lété, senior fellow on the German Marshall Fund of the US.

“Europeans have executed a foul job excited about their very own defence,” Lété tells Euronews.

“Within the navy response to the Ukraine battle, Europe has joined the response. The US was clearly the motive force,” he provides. “Europeans at the moment are realising that this example is now not sustainable.”

However the Ukraine battle, with its horrors unravelling proper on the EU’s doorstep, has served as a “wake-up name” for the bloc, resulting in a “new dynamic”, says Lété. A dynamic the place capitals, from Berlin to Copenhagen, rethink their defence methods and change into extra conscious of the geopolitical atmosphere that surrounds them.

“It is nonetheless early to say how this [wake-up call] will develop. Some member states will prioritise NATO buildings. Others will argue the EU ought to be capable to lead its personal navy missions, if wanted,” the researcher says, noting that NATO will proceed so as to add worth “it doesn’t matter what.”

The 2024 presidential election in America may also play a task in boosting the EU’s personal defence capabilities and pursuit of self-reliance, in response to which approach the wind blows.

Even when President Joe Biden has made the EU-US rapprochement considered one of his international coverage priorities, the coverage could possibly be simply reversed by his successor and produce transatlantic relations again to the low factors of the Trump years. That risky interval, which nonetheless looms over Brussels, put the novel idea of strategic autonomy on the very high of the EU’s agenda, a debate as soon as rhetorical that’s now bearing its first fruit.

The rising uncertainty round America’s electoral cycle is ready to be exacerbated by the challenges posed by a pariah Russian state constrained by sanctions however nonetheless dwelling aspect by aspect with the European Union.

“The following coming years can be years of everlasting instability,” Lété predicts.

“It’s going to maintain bringing Europeans collectively.”