Colombia peace talks with ELN rebels set to resume amid tensions

Bogota, Colombia – Peace talks between the Colombian authorities and the most important remaining insurgent group within the South American nation, the Nationwide Liberation Military (ELN), are to renew this week in Mexico Metropolis.

Whereas left-wing President Gustavo Petro’s administration has expressed optimism over the renewed negotiations, tensions between Bogota and the ELN have grown for the reason that final spherical of talks resulted in December in Caracas, Venezuela.

The Colombian authorities was compelled to backtrack on a New 12 months’s Eve announcement {that a} truce had been reached after the ELN denied that any such settlement existed. As a substitute, the rebels stated a ceasefire “was merely a proposal to be thought of”.

Now, because the second spherical of talks is to start on Monday within the Mexican capital, specialists have questioned how the federal government’s obvious misstep will have an effect on the prospect of ending many years of armed battle in Colombia and the way dependable any potential ceasefires might be going ahead.

”Expectations in affected communities had been sky-high after [last year’s] elections,” which introduced Petro to energy, stated Kyle Johnson, co-founder of the Battle Responses Basis, which research armed battle and peacebuilding in Colombia.

“However now we’re beginning to see doubt,” he advised Al Jazeera. “Residents in militarised battle areas ask, ‘If there’s a ceasefire, why are there nonetheless troopers and tanks in my group?”

‘Whole peace’

Violence in Colombia has risen lately, significantly in rural areas, regardless of a 2016 peace accord that noticed members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) insurgent group lay down their weapons after many years of battle.

Petro, a former insurgent fighter who took workplace in August, promised on the marketing campaign path to maneuver away from the militarised methods of earlier Colombian administrations, which appeared to have solely exacerbated the violence.

He additionally pledged to interact all prison teams in direct negotiations with the aim of reaching disarmament agreements, a plan he calls “complete peace”.

The federal government stated this month that it has reached casual ceasefires with 4 armed teams: the Gaitanista Self-Defence Forces, which the state calls “Clan del Golfo”; two FARC dissident teams that rejected the 2016 peace deal, Segunda Marquetalia and Estado Mayor; and a paramilitary group on the Caribbean coast known as the Self-Defence Conquistadors of the Sierra Nevada.

However heading into the brand new spherical of talks between Bogota and the ELN, which is believed to have 3,000 to five,000 members, latest statements have mirrored ongoing tensions between the 2 sides.

“It appears that evidently ‘complete peace’ is being compromised by different enterprise,” Antonio Garcia, a high-ranking ELN commander, stated in a series of tweets on February 6. “The peace course of can’t be used as an ‘umbrella’ for different points,” he stated, referring to authorities ceasefire declarations that the ELN has described as motivated by political ambitions.

“The federal government has not been in tune with what was agreed to on the [negotiating] desk,” Garcia stated.

‘Formidable’ negotiations

The insurgent chief additionally rejected the federal government’s classification of the ELN as an organised armed group, which places it in the identical class because the non-political, narco-trafficking teams which can be additionally negotiating long-term peace offers with Bogota.

Otty Patino, the Colombian authorities’s chief negotiator, responded to the criticism at a information convention the following day, saying Garcia had “not understood the importance of what complete peace is”.

“There are totally different procedures for the totally different [armed groups] and the ELN,” Patino stated.

Consultants say the feedback illustrate the pitfalls that Bogota faces in holding simultaneous talks with a number of armed teams, lots of whom are in open battle with each other.

“A few of that is simply posturing forward of [the next round of] peace talks,” Carlos Velandia, a former ELN commander who now acts as an adviser to the Petro administration, advised Al Jazeera.

“The ELN has been very clear from the start that they need to negotiate their very own peace accord. They don’t need to be lumped into agreements with different teams,” Velandia stated.

He added, nevertheless, that “hiccups had been inevitable in such a posh and impressive negotiation course of”.

Questions stay

The 4 armed teams that Colombia stated it has reached casual ceasefires with have confirmed in public statements {that a} short-term armistice is in place, however no written agreements have been signed.

Below these truces, the armed teams have agreed to not battle the Colombian safety forces, however they haven’t promised to cease preventing each other.

How these casual ceasefires will work in apply is unclear, particularly throughout the federal government’s ongoing negotiations with the ELN, which is in open battle with all however one of many 4 teams.

“The overwhelming majority of [the] preventing happens between armed teams themselves, not with the federal government,” Johnson advised Al Jazeera. “What must be negotiated is a truce between armed teams, and it isn’t clear how the federal government can legally play a job in that.”

Elizabeth Dickinson, the lead Colombia analyst on the Worldwide Disaster Group, additionally defined that whereas ceasefires are sometimes the results of months of negotiations, “these ceasefires have been known as with none protocols” to outline the phrases of engagement or enforcement. Which means “it isn’t clear how they’ll perform”, she stated.

Nonetheless, Dickinson stated, the ceasefire technique “deserves assist as your best option amongst dangerous choices”. She confused that the sample of violence has shifted for the reason that 2016 FARC peace accord and Colombia’s safety technique has largely “did not adapt, at occasions to counterproductive or lethal impact”.

However the “hazard is that armed teams use these ceasefires, which had been granted with out them having to provide any concessions in return, to strain the federal government amidst ongoing negotiations”, she stated.

In the meantime, residents of violence-plagued areas of Colombia query whether or not the federal government’s efforts will translate into concrete adjustments on the bottom or put a cease to lethal violence between armed teams.

Andres Silva Rojas – who campaigns for sustainable farming practices amongst growers of coca, the important thing ingredient for cocaine – stated he helps peace efforts. He works in Colombia’s Catatumbo area, one of many largest coca-producing areas on the planet.

However he advised Al Jazeera {that a} ceasefire between the ELN and the federal government can be “successfully meaningless for folks in our group” as a result of state authorities don’t keep a presence within the space.

“There isn’t any authorities [presence here], so the ELN promising to not assault one thing that doesn’t exist wouldn’t symbolize any change in dynamics,” he stated.