Wyoming heads west for test against San Jose State

WYOMING AT SAN JOSE STATE

Records: Wyoming (1-5, 1-1 in Mountain West play) and San Jose State (4-2, 2-1 in MWC play)

Location: San Jose, California (CEFCU Stadium)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 19th at 2:00 p.m. (Mountain Time)

Television: Mountain West Network

Streaming: Mountain West Network App

Radio: KOWB 1290 AM – 95.1 FM / KOWB App (Cowboy Sports Network)

Head-to-Head: Wyoming holds a 7-6 lead in the series. However, San Jose State has won five of the last six meetings between these two.

The Cowboys’ last win came in 2018.

Tale of the Tape

OFFENSE

QUARTERBACKS – Advantage to San Jose State

• Evan Svoboda had moments of good against San Diego State, but his passing efficiency was nowhere near where it needs to be if the Pokes want to pull off an upset Saturday afternoon.

12/31 and two interceptions.

Not good.

Halfway through 2024, I don’t expect to see Svoboda reinvent himself.

He can burn you with his legs if needed, but he is not going to consistently beat you through the air.

• Head coach Ken Niumatalolo and the Spartans are in a weird position.

QB Emmett Brown started the first four games for SJSU – nearly leading them to a shocking 4-0 start before Washington State outlasted the Spartans in double OT, 54-52.

However, in the last two weeks, Brown has been sputtering and backup Walker Eget was given the chance to spark SJSU’s offense.

Eget propelled them to a comeback win against Nevada.

Last week, neither Brown nor Eget found a way to push the Spartans past Colorado State.

There is uncertainty at the most important position in football, but both have shown the ability to lead San Jose State to wins.

RUNNING GAME – Advantage to San Jose State

• Injuries continue to pile up for UW, and the running back room is no exception.

Dawaiian McNeely and DJ Jones have suffered from the injury bug – leaving Sam Scott to do the heavy lifting.

Scott is finding his way as the season progresses, but without a complementary passing game, it is challenging to run the ball positively.

• Even though San Jose State likes to throw the ball around the yard, Chalk Floyd has done well for himself – punching the ball into the endzone seven times this year. He isn’t averaging an absurd amount of yards each game, but he is running for a shade under five yards each time he touches the rock.

When Floyd takes to the sideline, Jabari Bates steps in and has done a serviceable job thus far.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS – Advantage to San Jose State

• There is not a lot to write home about for the Pokes.

Not a single receiver has reached the 200-yard mark.

Tight end John Michael Gyllenborg is the glue that allows Svoboda to get the ball out early.

But he can’t do it alone.

Jaylen Sargent had a nice 70-yard snag against San Diego State.

Tyler King caught a pair of passes for 34 total yards,

That is it.

Freshman Chris Durr Jr. didn’t find his way into the box score despite a high ceiling that coaches and media have raved about.

You have got to give the kid more opportunities.

There is no reason not to.

Not in today’s world of NIL and the transfer portal.

Nick Nash.

One of the longest-tenured players in Mountain West history.

Nash has been at SJSU for six years – starting in 2019 as a QB.

Since he transitioned to wide receiver, he has been stellar, already eclipsing his 2023 totals for receiving yards, receptions, and receiving touchdowns in just six games.

Justin Lockhart serves as Nash’s “Robin” – collecting over 400 receiving yards in his own right.

And Treyshun Hurry has over 200 receiving yards.

This trio will be darn-near impossible to stop, but the goal for defensive coordinator Aaron Bohl must be to limit the damage.

OFFENSIVE LINE – Advantage to Wyoming

• How a given offensive line performs requires in-depth statistical tracking beyond how many sacks/tackles-for-loss a team allows.

That’s where Pro Football Focus (PFF) is such a helpful tool.

According to PFF, Wyoming holds a 67.0 pass-blocking grade and a 66.8 run-blocking grade.

8th and 6th in the Mountain West.

Pretty…pretty…pretty…bad.

Using the same PFF rankings, the Spartans have a 46.2 pass-blocking grade (only ahead of Air Force) and a 48.1 run-blocking grade (the worst in the conference).

11th and 12th in the MWC.

San Jose State can score with the best in the conference, but it’s because of their skill position players, not their offensive line.

DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE LINE – Advantage to Wyoming

• The defensive line for the Pokes is stingy and always full of grit and toughness.

Last week, DE Sabastian Harsh brought his lunch pail and went to work – finishing with four tackles-for-loss.

Running on Wyoming is never easy, and despite this being a down year, that still rings true.

PFF ranks the Cowboys as the second-best rushing defense in the Mountain West (82.1 grade – just behind Hawaii’s 83.4).

• The Spartans are generally on par with Wyoming regarding rushing yards allowed (166.2 yds for SJSU vs. 171.3 yds for WYO).

Senior Soane Toia is the stat leader on the defensive line – accounting for two tackles-for-loss and one sack.

Not much meat on the bone for the Spartans in the trenches.

LINEBACKERS – Advantage to San Jose State

• Wyoming’s linebackers showed some mustard last week as tandem Shae Suiaunoa and Connor Shay combined for 1.5 tackles-for-loss and one interception.

The next step for those two is to consistently churn out that type of production instead of it being a blip on the radar.

• Without question, the leader of the Spartan defense is LB Jordan Pollard.

He leads SJSU in total tackles with 60 so far.

Next on the list?

Robert Rahimi with 38 tackles.

Pollard has also registered two sacks and an interception.

Pairing up with Pollard is Jordan Cobbs.

He adds two sacks to the list and two interceptions.

Both of these guys make plays and can swing momentum heavily in their favor.

SECONDARY – Advantage to San Jose State

Wyoming recorded its second interception of the season in their loss to San Diego State.

The not-so-good?

It came via the linebackers.

You take interceptions any way you can, but in 2024, Wrook Brown is the only Cowboy in the secondary to convert an interception.

Last week, Wyoming allowed San Diego State to pass for over 250 yards.

On average, the Aztecs pass for 201 yards each outing.

Danny O’Neil was afforded time to be efficient in the pocket and finish the night with a 59.2% completion percentage.

If the secondary doesn’t shape up prior to kickoff, it will be a long day for Wyoming.

• San Jose State’s backline has been awfully good at forcing turnovers.

Out of their ten total interceptions as a team, six have come from the secondary.

Five of those six have come from a trio of starters – Robert Rahimi (2), DJ Harvey (2), and Michael Dansby (1).

Wyoming’s Svoboda threw two interceptions last Saturday.

Mistakes could let this game get out of hand quickly.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KICKERS – Advantage to Wyoming

• John Hoyland has been consistent.

From inside 50 yards, he is a perfect five for five.

Beyond 50, he has missed both of his attempts.

Last year, Hoyland had a knack for making some difficult attempts.

Not this year.

• San Jose State relies on Kyler Halvorsen for kicking duties.

In 2024, he is four of six, with his long being just 34 yards.

That’s why I don’t trust him to outduel Hoyland.

PUNTERS – Advantage to Wyoming

• After a terrific start to 2024, Jack Culbreath has settled into a rhythm – averaging a dependable 42 yards night in and night out.
• I don’t love the Spartans using two punters.

Trent Carrizosa is the “big leg” of the two, while Dino Beslagic is primarily used for short-field, accurate attempts.

Just like with any other position on the field, switching folks in and out doesn’t allow either player to develop a rhythm.

RETURNERS – Advantage to Wyoming

• Last week was an abysmal one for the Pokes’ return game.

They fielded zero yards the entire game.

Tyler King and his lone kickoff return touchdown is the only reason I give this advantage to Wyoming.

• San Jose State has done nothing in this department.

Zero TDs and a long of 37 by the unit as a whole.

No threat has been established.

Notable Injuries/Announcements

WR Malikhi Miller – QUESTIONABLE

LG Alex Conn – OUT

LB Connor Shay – DOUBTFUL

S Wyett Ekeler – QUESTIONABLE

S Isaac White – QUESTIONABLE

OL Wes King – QUESTIONABLE

OL Jack Walsh – QUESTIONABLE

DE Tyce Westland – QUESTIONABLE

DT Ben Florentine – QUESTIONABLE

Why San Jose State Will Win

The Spartans torch Wyoming’s pass defense.

Wyoming won’t be able to keep up in a shootout.

The Cowboys have broken the 20-point barrier twice this season.

San Jose State has scored less than 20 points just once.

Whether it’s Emmett Brown or Walker Eget, SJSU staying with one QB throughout the game would prove dividends.

Throw in a few forced turnovers by way of WYO’s Evan Svoboda and the Spartans could wrap this puppy up early.

Why Wyoming Will Win

They control the clock and establish a reliable ground attack.

SJSU’s defense is quite good in the air…so limiting the chances for the Spartans to create a takeaway is critical.

Let RB Sam Scott try to win this game for you.

The trenches are where the Pokes can create an advantage.

On defense, the best thing you can do is force SJSU to make small gains and drive down the field.

Explosive plays will kill the Cowboys.

3 Players to Watch

Each week, I will highlight three players who may not be household names but could be the difference-makers in this matchup.

Sam Scott (Running Back – Wyoming)

• Listed down the depth chart to begin 2024, Scott has taken grabbed the opportunity given to him via injuries

Floyd Chalk (Running Back – San Jose State)

• Assuming that Wyoming attempts to key in on SJSU’s passing game, Chalk has a chance to churn out a big day on the ground.

Michael Dansby (Cornerback – San Jose State)

• He may not lead the team in interceptions, but he creates plenty of opportunities.

Dansby leads the Spartans with six pass breakups, double the amount anyone else has on the San Jose State roster.

Spread: Wyoming +11.5, San Jose State -11.5 (-110 to WYO and SJSU)

Total: 52.5 points (-112 to the over and -108 to the under)

Straight Up Money Line: Wyoming +330, San Jose State -425

Prediction

This is a bad schematic matchup for the Wyoming Cowboys.

Playing a pass-heavy team with talented personnel on the perimeter is not what the Pokes look forward to when scouting opponents.

I don’t see Wyoming compiling enough stops and scoring enough to pull off a Mountain West upset.

San Jose State wins and covers.

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS 35 – WYOMING COWBOYS 17

In the comments, let us know your predictions for Saturday’s game between the Cowboys and Spartans!