AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wyoming's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wyoming has been among the most conservative states in the county, and voters on Tuesday will select the Republican candidates who will advance to November’s general election for federal and state legislative offices.

The only contested races in Wyoming’s primary are on the Republican side.

While voters in the fall will decide contests for the U.S. Senate, the state’s at-large U.S. House seat, 62 state House and 15 state Senate seats, only 56 Republican primaries across these races include two or more candidates. Most of the state legislative candidates who advance will face no Democratic opponent in November.

This unusual circumstance is likely related to how Republicans have dominated the state in recent years.

Republicans have supermajorities in both state legislative chambers. The last time a Democrat won any statewide election in Wyoming was 2006, when Gov. Dave Freudenthal was reelected. Just 11% of the state’s electorate are registered Democrats.

Sen. John Barrasso and Rep. Harriet Hageman both have challengers in the GOP primary but likely do not face serious threats.

Hagemen’s opponent hasn’t reported any fundraising to the Federal Election Commission. In the Senate race, businessman Reid Rasner has raised and spent $1.2 million to Barrasso’s $5 million; Rasner’s fundraising includes a $1.18 million campaign loan

A look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

Polls close at 9 p.m. EDT.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for Senate, House, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote

Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Under a 2023 law that changed the state’s primary system, Republicans may not vote in the Democratic primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

Decision notes

Wyoming has 23 counties, the majority of which contain fewer than 20,000 residents. The most populous counties are Laramie, which includes Cheyenne, and Natrona, home to Casper.

Unlike many other states, these large counties do not lean Democratic. In 2022, the Democratic candidate for governor performed best in the counties of Teton, which includes Jackson and popular tourist areas, and Albany, which includes the state’s fourth-most populous city, Laramie (not to be confused with the county of the same name).

In an example of just how strongly Republican the Wyoming electorate is, Republican Gov. Mark Gordon won both of those counties – Teton by one-tenth of a percentage point, and Albany by almost 28 points.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Wyoming are automatic if the vote margin is less than 1% of the votes cast for the winning candidate. Candidates may request and pay for a recount if they allege fraud or error in the vote-counting process. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of July 1, there were nearly 222,000 registered voters in Wyoming. Of those, 11% were Democrats and 81% were Republicans.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was about 3% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and about 60% in the Republican primary. About 59% of Democratic primary voters and 32% of Republican primary votes in that election cast their ballots before primary day.

As of Thursday, 22,912 ballots had been cast before primary day. About 15% of those were cast in the Democratic primary and 82% in the Republican primary.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 midterm primary election, the AP first reported results at 9:28 p.m. EDT, or 28 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 2:05 a.m. EDT with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 77 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.