Week 12 College Football Pick: Bet Under in Washington State-Arizona | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

• Guess Washington State-Arizona u63.5: Wildcat protection that may be a bit underrated welcomes Cougars offense working at 8% decrease effectivity than earlier Arizona opponents.

• Arizona’s offense totaled 37 factors in opposition to robust defenses of Mississippi State, Utah; Cougars are No. 40 in PFF defensive grade.

• One concern concerning the Over: Each offenses rank within the prime 30 in seconds per play, however Washington State’s lack of explosiveness, Arizona’s lack of urgency when trailing each pleasant towards the beneath.

Final up to date: Nov. 18, 12:00 p.m.

Estimated studying time: 3 minutes

Hit or miss final week. Rice (+13) moved the ball down the sphere confidently and comfortably early within the sport in opposition to Western Kentucky, however two near-red-zone turnovers put them on the again foot and behind — and after that it was a formality for WKU. Charlotte (+11) misplaced by 10 factors to Center Tennessee with out having to attain within the second half, so this unfold was by no means at any level out of attain. A bit of little bit of early-game turnover luck in opposition to us, in any other case we might have been a greater week however solely a small loss.

This weekly preview is 10-8 on the season for +1.24 models and a 6.28% ROI. 

Washington State @ Arizona (+4.5, 63.5)

• Taking an beneath in an Arizona sport shouldn’t be for the faint-hearted: The Wildcats have moved the ball and put up factors all year long in opposition to weak defenses (34 ppg), equivalent to California, Colorado, USC, Washington, UCLA and Oregon (all six groups are within the backside 35 within the nation in success price allowed on protection). But when confronted with sterner assessments from Mississippi State and Utah, Arizona is averaging nearly half that complete.

• Washington State shouldn’t be a top-10 protection by the success price metrics: The truth is, the Cougars are proper round fiftieth within the nation. Nonetheless, they’re additionally inside the highest 40 in limiting massive performs, and thirty sixth in PFF Defensive Grade — all considerably increased than Arizona’s common opponent this season.

• Arizona protection may be underrated due to an unimaginable energy of schedule: The six aforementioned dangerous defensive opponents are a number of the greatest offensive groups within the nation — Oregon, USC and UCLA are the highest three groups in EPA/play, and three of the highest 5 in offensive success price with Utah and Washington each within the prime eight in that class as properly. Your defensive stats are by no means going to look nice taking part in 5 of one of the best eight offenses within the nation. Washington State’s offense is round 8% much less environment friendly than the typical Arizona opponent and provides up damaging EPA/play which suggests they aren’t all that explosive both.

• The one concern about this sport going over a comparatively excessive complete is the tempo of play: Each groups are pretty fast offensive models and sit inside the highest 30 for seconds per play however each side of the ball for Washington State are pleasant in direction of the beneath by way of explosive performs and success price. With that stated, Washington State does are likely to decelerate as soon as they’ve a lead however considerably surprisingly Arizona shouldn’t be a staff that hurries up a terrific deal when they’re trailing.  

Finest Guess: Underneath 63.5

Guess Gameplan: Playable to 61.5