The Prediction: Washington Huskies @ Penn State Nittany Lions

Max Vrooman

Last week I provided the stunning analysis that narrative dictated all of UW’s games which meant they would win at home and I would’ve nailed the final score if USC had kicked one more field goal during their 4 failed trips inside UW territory.

This week the narrative clearly dictates that the Huskies are doomed but I’d like to layer on some serious analysis this time. My city league ultimate team is 6-1 and the #2 seed entering the playoffs which start of Saturday. The only game we lost was during the UW bye week. Otherwise, somehow the schedule has somehow put 6 of the 7 games (including this week) while UW is away from Husky Stadium. That means I can actually go to them but also means that the Huskies are 0-4 playing on a weekend when I have an ultimate game I can go to. Sorry Dawgs.

Oh and I guess I’ll also add that this seems a horrendous matchup for the Huskies even if you ignore the travel and the raucous stadium environment. Penn State has edge rusher Abdul Carter who is a likely top-ten pick and is 2nd in the B1G in pass rush grade per PFF and t-3rd in total QB pressures. I don’t have a lot of confidence in UW’s OL to be able to block him. On the other side, Penn State is a team that basically doesn’t throw to their WRs which negates one of UW’s biggest strengths on defense. I’ll be fascinated to see if Coach Belichick does something dramatic like put Ephesians Prysock on their star TE Tyler Warren who is really the only threat in the passing game.

Penn St 27 – UW 12

Collin O’Meara

In Steve Sarkisian’s first year as Husky HC (2009), the Dawgs took a 3-7 record into the final two weeks of the season, and generated home blowouts vs WSU (30-0) and Cal (42-10). I remember the feeling that something had clicked with that year’s team, that the team had shed its ineptitude of the Willingham years and had been transformed into something entirely different. Fast forward to 2024 and the situation now isn’t even comparable to that era, but again we have a new head coach leading a team that has little in common with the previous year, and that is still reaching for the identity it desires. In the final weeks of this season, I would love nothing more than to see Jedd Fisch’s Huskies signal that it’s all gotten dialed in, with the Dawgs winning some upsets. To be sure, there have been upward trends lately, but there are still crucial things that need fixing: inopportune penalties.. bad kick coverage.. scoring more points.. The Huskies are facing a top-10 Penn State team, in their house, who just suffered a frustrating loss, on fan-gimmick night (don’t get me wrong, I love fan gimmicks). I think the Dawgs will compete, but I also felt good about the Iowa and Indiana games, and those became road blowouts for UW.

Penn St 27 – UW 20

Mark Schafer

It is now week 11, and the Huskies will be walking into a tough one. Not only is this a road game, across time zones, but it’s also a White Out, meaning that a crowd that was going to be tough now may be even more energized. We knew going in that this would be it, and we’ve been dreading it for months, but let me tell you what the Dawgs can do to pull it off!

The first and last thing for the Huskies to do in order to win this game is to minimize mistakes, which might be easier said than done especially since they’re literally walking into a lion’s den on Saturday, with a juiced up crowd in a White Out game. I would establish Jonah Coleman early and often and get him between 20-25 touches to start. Will Rogers can play off of him in the short passing game and set up opportunities deep. Defensively, they need to key in on the option game that Penn State likes to use and be disciplined against misdirection, using Belichick’s proclivity to play man-to-man defense to shut down Penn State’s receivers. Other than that, this is a tough task, and I think, coming off a win last week, they can do just enough to eke out a win, but they have to be perfect.

UW 24 – Penn St 21

Andrew Berg

Earlier in the season, we spent a lot of time thinking about what UW could do if they could get over certain humps. The team could compete with anybody if they could just… cut down on the penalties, perform better in the red zone, get the ball to Jonah Coleman more often, win up front more often on both sides of the ball, kick and punt better.

Nine games into the season, we might see some minor changes, but for the most part, we know who the Huskies are at this point. They’re going to struggle to block long enough to effectively push the ball downfield. They will put up some yards, but are unlikely to crack 30 points consistently against good defenses. The defense has probably played above its talent level all year, but remains susceptible to power running attacks.

This combination is not a great recipe against Penn St. The Nittany Lions feature a devastating running combination of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. While I’m not the biggest believer in Drew Allar, his numbers this year have been surprisingly good, especially when throwing to outstanding TE Tyler Warren. Penn St probably won’t explode for 40 points against the Dawg defense, but I expect them to bully their way to some long drives.

I’m more concerned with how the Huskies will find enough space offensively against a very good defense to keep up through four quarters. The offensive line is suboptimal at its best and banged up beyond that. Quick hitting passes will be the key to moving the ball, especially if Will Rogers can get the ball to the likes of Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston in motion to add some yards after the catch. I think the Huskies have a reasonable chance to keep the game within the spread, but with Penn St’s pace and defense, that doesn’t necessarily mean the game will be “close.”

Penn St 24 – UW 14

SU: UW 1, Penn St 3

ATS: UW 3, Penn St 1

Average Score: Penn St 25 – UW 18