The Pants Predicts: Iowa vs Washington

The Hawkeyes are back at home with their tail between their legs after getting pummeled by Ohio State last week. Now they try to get back on track with a matchup with the Washington Huskies.

Our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook expect them to have some success as they have Iowa favored by 3 in this one. The over/under is set at 42.5 total points, which puts the implied final score at 22.75-19.75 (call it 23-20).

Here at The Pants, we’re a bit torn. Of our participating staff, just over half is on the Hawks to get a win. Our average score prediction is Iowa 20.6, Washington 20.2. That puts us back on the under (finally!!) and taking the Huskies with the points.

Feels good to be pessimistic again, doesn’t it Hawkeye fans?

Anyway, here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday’s matchup.

SirNicholas33

I’m worried about this game. Really worried.

Washington owns one of the losses in the stat going around regarding travel in league play. You’ve probably seen it – Big Ten teams are 1-8 when having to travel two or more time zones, either east or west. The lone win is Indiana at UCLA.

Here’s the thing though – Washington completely dominated the game they lost, at Rutgers, only to be undone by missing not one, not two, but THREE field goals in a game they lost by 3 (misses from 42, 37, and 55 yards; the 55-yarder was at the buzzer). They outgained Rutgers 521-299. They had zero turnovers. And they lost. This is a good team that has two tough losses (the second loss was the Apple Cup in which they were stuffed on 4th and goal from the 1 in the final seconds of the game).

Now, perhaps their body clocks will be off with the early kickoff. We see west coast-based NFL teams struggle with early kickoffs when they get to the central or eastern time zones all the time, and they’re professionals. We’ve seen it in college – the Stanford team that smashed Iowa in the Rose Bowl started the season at Northwestern (early kickoff, so 9:00 a.m. on their body clocks) and lost by 10.

But if that is the card we have to play in hopes of winning this game…that’s not good, you guys. Not good at all. I do think their run defense is a little suspect and that’s an advantage for Iowa given they have Kaleb Johnson, but this is going to be nip and tuck the whole way. I think Iowa will hang on and win, but I will not be surprised at all if Iowa loses this, they’re 3-3, and any goals for the season are officially gone. Iowa wins, we exhale, then we kick on to the next make-or-break game.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Washington 21

JPinIC

I have to admit, the Huskies have performed better than I expected when they turned over their coaching staff and the vast majority of their roster this offseason. I thought this was a 6-win team and they’ve looked better than that, especially knocking off Michigan a week ago.

I will also say the Hawkeyes have underperformed my expectations on both sides of the ball so far this season. Not by a lot, but the secondary is not as sure as I thought it would be and Cade McNamara’s complete inability to stretch a defense with vertical throws has disappointed.

But at the end of the day, the Huskies are coming off an incredibly emotional win over a top-10 team that defeated them in the national title a year ago. That’s a prime set up for a letdown. Add in that they get to travel across two time zones, where Big Ten teams are 1-8 on the year (the lone win being Indiana at UCLA and Washington being among those to already lose such a game at Rutgers) and this has all the markings of a complete no-show from Washington.

Oh, it’s also at 11am CT/9am PT? Yeah, I think the Huskies really fall off from a week ago. This sets up like a Kaleb Johnson game to me. I expect him to get 20+ touches and turn that into 150+ yards and multiple scores. I still don’t have any confidence in the passing game, but I think we see some things work underneath based off the run and the defense creates multiple turnovers.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Washington 16

Bartt Pierce

This season is not going like I thought it would. The crazy thing is that I never expected us to lose to Iowa State. This season already has a pretty big downer vibe for me; I’m sure it’s because the Hawks don’t typically blow a lead at home like they did against ISU. Ohio State is one of the best three teams in the country. It’s time for the Hawks to stack some wins. Our offense is improved. Phil Parker and LeVar Woods are incredible coordinators. I just don’t feel like this is our year. Please prove me wrong, Hawks. I love you no matter what. It still has a must-win feel to me. A loss at home against Washington and folks are gonna start looking ahead to basketball and wrestling. I’m picking against our boys. It worked for me in 2020. Go Hawks!

Prediction: Washington 20, Iowa 13

MattReisener

This game feel like a must-win for Iowa if they want to avoid watching this one-promising season go sideways fast. Unfortunately, Washington is far from a pushover. One year after having one of the worst pass defenses in football, the Huskies have a legitimate claim to being the best pass in football at this same metric, leading the FBS in opponent completion percentage (46.7%), yards per pass attempt (4.5), and passer rating (85.31). Even after losing several key players from their national-runner up team, the Washington offense is still formidable thanks to quarterback Will Rogers, running back Jonah Coleman, and a dangerous duo of wide receivers. Given Iowa’s struggles defending the pass this season, the balanced Washington attack could create opportunities for the Huskies to attack Iowa downfield.

Still, the Hawkeyes may have a slight advantage in this game. Kaleb Johnson should be able to move the ball on the ground, Washington’s tendency to commit penalties should play right into the hands of Iowa’s bend-but-don’t-break defense, the Husky kicking game has been shaky this season, and the home crowd should be rocking in this high-profile matchup. Washington may also be susceptible to a let-down after avenging their national championship loss to Michigan last week, which could be compounded by what will feel like a 9:00 AM kickoff for a west coast team. If Iowa can avoid turning the ball over and surrendering big plays, the Hawkeyes should be able to eek out a win.

Prediction: Iowa 21, Washington 20

GingerHawk

Before the season I had this game down as a loss and I’m still debating whether or not to change my mind. The Huskies lost a lot from last year’s national championship runner up team but that doesn’t mean they’re a shell of their ‘23 self. Michael Penix Jr. is off to the NFL but in his place, Will Rogers has already thrown for over 1600 yards, 12 touchdowns, and only one interception. He’s connected with receiver Denzel Boston for 8 of those scores. They’re actually ranked #8 in total defense on the year as well, allowing 256 yards and 13.17 points per game.

Iowa’s offense is much improved but this will still be a battle. Cade needs to take better care of the ball than what we saw last week and be smart with his throws. Lean on Kaleb Johnson and the running game where the Husky defense isn’t as strong. Defensively, this is a prove it game for Iowa’s secondary after giving up more big plays than we’re used to seeing. Throw out last week’s game, nobody else Iowa will face has Ohio State’s receivers. But the Rogers-Boston connection can be dangerous, so this will be an opportunity for Iowa’s pass defense to put those doubts to rest.

I want to believe Washington emptied the tank last week to get revenge against Michigan, and that coupled with the famous 2+ timezone jump and early kickoff will work against the Huskies this weekend. Because I’m a man of my word I’ll stick to my preseason prediction, but I am this close to going the other way.

Prediction: Washington 24, Iowa 21

So that’s how we see things playing out on Saturday. How about you, Hawkeyes fans? Let us know in the comments below.