Severe storms could hit D.C. area Monday afternoon and evening

Storms may tend to be hit-or-miss rather than the type that blasts the whole area. While some spots could see little to no rainfall, areas that experience the heaviest downpours could see up to 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two.

The main culprit is the same low-pressure area responsible for major severe weather outbreaks in the Plains and Midwest over the weekend. It’s dragging a cold front through the area that will collide with warm and humid air, inciting storms.

The main source of uncertainty for storm coverage and intensity is the cloud cover over the region, which may decrease the amount of heating. That could reduce fuel for storms somewhat.

Still, at least scattered strong to severe storms are a good bet into the evening.

• Potential storm timing: Midafternoon through evening. Ending near or just after sunset.
• Chance of rain: About 60 percent for any given location.
• Storm duration: Half-hour to an hour, but more than one storm may pass.
• Most likely effects: Heavy rain, dangerous lightning, isolated damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado or two.
• Possible impacts: Multiple tornadoes, isolated large hail and spotty flash flooding.

The severe weather setup features a vigorous cold front approaching from the west and an atmospheric disturbance that will focus uplift of air across the DMV later this afternoon.

There will also be an attendant increase in wind shear, which is a change of speed and direction with height that helps shape powerful thunderstorms. Meanwhile, near the ground, winds from the south will continue to usher in warmth and moisture, providing storm fuel and making the air mass unstable.

One confounding factor is early-morning cloud cover, which is extensive and multilayered, due to the remnants of a storm complex to the west. Until clouds thin, the ground will not be heated as strongly, potentially delaying full destabilization.

Stronger heating is expected this afternoon, coincident with an increase in wind shear. Convective storms should percolate as temperatures rise and the front approaches, becoming more widespread by late afternoon.

Where these storms predominantly likely cluster and focus may vary. For instance, the NAM weather model favors spots nearer the bay and southern Maryland. Some of this activity is already ongoing in southeastern Virginia. It’s cousin the HRRR weather model begins initiating storms farther west, including central Maryland and the District.

The storm mode is likely to be small clusters (multicells) and short bowing segments or arcs — a few rotating supercells are also possible. Torrential rain and lightning are likely with any activity. So is possibly strong to severe wind gusts called downbursts and hail to the size of quarters. Even a brief tornado or two could drop.

CWG will monitor the situation carefully through the afternoon and evening and provide updates in this article.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.