Washington
No. 21 Texas vs. No. 12 Washington advanced stats preview
The No 21 Texas Longhorns are set to face the No. 12 Washington Huskies within the Valero Alamo Bowl down in San Antonio this Thursday at 8 p.m. Central. Texas has one other probability to exhibit that they’re heading in the right direction and persevering with to enhance. After a few disappointing showings this season that finally led to lacking the street to the convention championship recreation, the Longhorns are being counted out. All the eye appears to be on Washington which had fairly the surge in rankings within the again half of the season after the upset towards Oregon. Texas is favored by 3.5 factors, in line with DraftKings going into this week. One caveat I’ll make earlier than diving into the statistics is power of schedule. Sure, Washington is 10-2 and Texas is 8-4; nevertheless, Texas ranks third in power of schedule this season whereas the Huskies are 51st.
Offense
With operating backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson declaring for the draft and opting out of the bowl recreation, the Longhorns must depend on their youthful backs to ship a strong speeding efficiency. Collectively, quarterback Quinn Ewers has had a strong beginning season. He got here out sturdy towards UL-Monroe and Alabama and continued in his return towards Oklahoma. There have been hiccups towards TCU and Oklahoma State, however finally, he isn’t doing any worse than Sam Ehlinger did in his first season. All of us knew getting into that the hype with Ewers was constructed round his arm energy and his ceiling. Given these notes, the primary desk reveals the superior metrics on the season for the Horns that will probably be enjoying within the bowl recreation.
The utilization charges and EPA statistics are listed under. EPA is the anticipated factors added per play by a person. It calculates the anticipated factors primarily based on down, distance-to-go, and area place and measures how a lot is gained/misplaced relative to that prediction per play. These metrics are typically filtered for rubbish time, so this doesn’t consider all performs the younger operating backs have been part of this season. Together with Robinson and Johnson, I’ve additionally withdrawn quarterback Hudson Card from the desk as he has entered the switch portal and dedicated to Purdue.
The following desk shows some comparisons in superior metrics akin to success charge, explosiveness, and havoc charge. Success charge is set by the yards gained on a particular down, normally outlined by first downs which acquire 50 p.c of yards wanted, second downs gaining 70 p.c of yards wanted, and flat out third or fourth down conversions. Explosiveness measures the typical EPA of performs that delivered a optimistic EPA (i.e. yardage gained given the play is profitable). Havoc charge measures the proportion of performs leading to TFLs, pressured fumbles, interceptions or cross breakups.
The Huskies run protection ranks decently properly, thirty fifth within the nation, permitting 127 yards per recreation. Their greatest gamers within the run-stopping recreation are defensive sort out Tuli Letuligasenoa (30 tackles, 0 sacks), nickel Dominique Hampton (37, 0), and robust security Alex Cook dinner (77, 0). Fortunately, the Longhorns are dealing with a workforce that usually has not had one of the best passing protection this season to this point. Washington’s passing protection ranks much like that of Texas, as they’re 91st and ninetieth within the nation respectively in yards allowed per recreation by means of the air. Washington’s greatest side of their protection is their cross rush led by edge rushers Bralen Trice (33, 8) and Jeremiah Martin (38, 8.5), and linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala (66, 3).
Protection
The Huskies work with a heavy passing offense spearheaded by their gifted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. They make the most of quick routes, ready for one-on-one matchups to open up on the surface. Penix leads the league in deep makes an attempt and connects on 41 p.c of the throws. Under is a desk outlining the utilization and EPA metrics for the Huskies on the season. As of now, it appears the complete roster is out there to play on Thursday.
Penix is surrounded by one other gifted receiver corps that appears to be the Longhorns’ recurring nightmare this season. Slot receiver Jalen McMillan leads in targets at 71 (14.6 yards per catch, eight touchdowns), and works primarily within the quick area. X receiver Rome Odunze (15.5, 7) is their greatest risk as he performs at each degree. Ja’Lynn Polk (17.1, 6) is used as a deep distraction to clear house for the 2 higher receivers. And lastly, Giles Jackson (11.7, 1) is a speedster greatest with the ball in his fingers off of sweeps and screens. Tight finish Jack Westover (11.5, 1) additionally contributes with the fifth-most receptions for the workforce. Texas protection has severely struggled towards these high-powered passing offenses by means of the season, and blown coverages from much less skilled defensive backs can simply resolve the end result of the bowl recreation as properly. The desk under reveals the identical comparability of superior metrics as earlier however for the alternative facet of the ball.
Washington’s offensive line has been resilient with one of many lowest sack charges this season, and holding defensive traces to solely 5 p.c havoc charges. This amplifies their passing capacity, giving loads of time to Penix to learn his choices and make performs. Run blocking will not be their power, however it doesn’t essentially should be given how dynamic their passing recreation is. After they do resolve to run, Wayne Taulapapa is their extra elusive again who’s harmful within the open area, and Cam Davis is their designated energy again.
Comparability
Direct comparisons have limitations of their data given the huge distinction in opponents Texas and Washington have performed this yr. To get a greater understanding, I up to date a visible I used after the TCU recreation to get a glimpse on the distribution of Texas expectation versus efficiency. This graph considers any kind of relativity as properly. It evaluates the EPA for the speeding and passing video games for each offense and protection of all opponents Texas has performed this season. I then calculated the variations in these EPA values from the typical that opponent has put up on the season versus how they carried out versus Texas.
Bars reaching in direction of the underside means Texas was considered one of their harder opponents or this workforce didn’t actually carry their greatest. Vice versa, bars pointing upwards point out the Longhorns being stunned, and these opponents overperforming in comparison with their expectations. Word*: The UTSA recreation will not be included as ESPN didn’t publish play-by-play information for that recreation.
There are two notable consistencies from this graph. First the speeding offense (in orange) of Texas opponents consistently hits a wall when enjoying the Longhorns. That is evident of the improved defensive position with nostril tackles Byron Murphy (21 tackles, 1 sack) and Keondre Coburn (25, 2.5), defensive tackles Moro Ojomo (31, 3) and T’Vondre Sweat (28, 0), and edge rusher Barryn Sorrell (41, 5.5). Linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (95, 4) has opted out of the bowl recreation in preparation for the draft, however Jaylan Ford (109, 2) will proceed to ship along with his All Massive-12 defensive efficiency.
The opposite pattern is the passing protection (in blue) which matches to indicate that almost all groups Texas has performed have had a tricky time masking the likes of Worthy, Whittington, and Sanders. Oklahoma State, TCU and Kansas are the one opponents that had been in a position to play above their averages when it got here to cross protection. This might show to be a recreation changer towards the Huskies who’re notably under common in in the case of passing protection.
I’ve constructed the identical graph for Washington’s opponents this season as properly which is displayed under. Word*: This graph doesn’t embrace their recreation towards Portland State because the play-by-play information will not be obtainable.
The primary pattern to watch is the passing offense (in purple). Optimistic purple bars point out that opponents have a greater time throwing the ball towards Washington than they do all season which once more provides some ample house for Ewers to step up. However, the passing protection (in blue) reveals that nearly each workforce (besides Arizona State) struggled towards the Huskies’ receiving corps. What’s extra fascinating, is the transformation of the speeding protection (in inexperienced). Opponents appeared to be operating the ball properly towards Washington by means of the primary half the season, however discovered issue in direction of the tip. Washington’s schedule has been harder in newer video games, too. This data paired with some recent operating backs for Texas might enable the Huskies to cease the run early on and forestall the Longhorns from gaining any momentum.
In the end, I feel every workforce’s success within the passing recreation early on will probably be indicative of the results of the sport. Each groups have gifted receivers that may be capable of manipulate weak coverages. Thus, the X components will come right down to the road battle. The Huskies have among the finest offensive traces however it’s tough to say what number of defensive traces they’ve confronted that present as a lot strain as Texas does. On prime of that, we want to suppose that our operating again room is gifted sufficient that we don’t want to fret about Bijan’s departure, however it might be a impolite awakening seeing the Huskies’ current tendencies in run-stopping.
Bonus
As a sneak peek to the season recap, I wished to guage Sarkisian’s second yr relative to the Massive 12 panorama. The convention championship contained Baylor and Oklahoma State final yr and TCU and Kansas State this yr. Thus, it was vital to see how different groups additionally reworked season to season to know if Sark is objectively bettering. Going off purely success charge, for now, the graph under visualizes how every Massive 12 workforce has modified.
If the report didn’t persuade you but, Texas did certainly enhance on either side of the ball and is second solely to Kansas in the case of the magnitude of their enchancment. Kansas got here out to a robust begin and had considered one of their higher seasons. Many offenses dropped off this season, together with Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State. This would possibly go to indicate that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense is flourishing at a time when the convention dropped off as a complete. Lastly, TCU’s offense carried the identical success charge as final yr whereas tightening their protection