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Michigan basketball vs. Washington prediction: Can U-M stay undefeated in Big Ten?
Dusty May: What to know about University of Michigan’s head basketball coach
What to know about University of Michigan head basketball coach Dusty May.
For Michigan basketball, the recent West Coast trip went about as well as hoped.
The No. 24 Wolverines (12-3, 4-0 Big Ten) picked up a pair of double-digit wins against the Big Ten’s Los Angeles-based teams — topping USC, 85-74, last Saturday and then defeating No. 21 UCLA, 94-75, Tuesday night as wildfires raged a few miles away — and now return home looking to make it three consecutive wins against league newcomers, welcoming Washington (10-6, 1-4) to Ann Arbor on Sunday afternoon (2 p.m., Big Ten Network).
The Huskies’ first trip to the Midwest hasn’t started well; they were dog-walked by Michigan State in East Lansing, 88-54, on Thursday. U-W trailed by 29 points at the half (42-13) and by more than 40 points in the second half (82-41 with less than five minutes to play) in an utter annihilation.
After two tight wins in conference play — by three points over Wisconsin and two over Iowa — U-M has won four games in a row by double digits and could make it five straight, with one of the bottom teams in the Big Ten coming to town.
Great Osobor with not-so-great help
U-Dub forward Great Osobor made headlines this offseason when he transferred from Utah State to Washington (following head coach Danny Sprinkle) for a then-record NIL deal worth $2 million.
Apparently, money doesn’t buy wins, because while Osobor has been decent, it hasn’t been nearly enough for the Huskies.
The senior leads the Huskies in scoring (13.8 points per game) and rebounding (8.4) but his efficiency has taken a large drop, as he has shot just 45% from the floor on 3s after hitting at least 57.7% in each of his first three college seasons. Some of that might be attributable to his increased 3-point tries — after attempting just 18 3s (and making four, for a 22.2% success rate) in his first 104 games, he has 14 3-point tries in 16 games this season (with only two makes, a 15.3% rate). More concerning is his 2-point shooting percentage: After hitting 59.1% last season, he’s at 47.7% inside the arc this season.
He has scored in double figures in 11 games with the Huskies, though much of his success came in a weak nonconference schedule. Though he put up 20 points and 14 rebounds vs. Maryland, he had just nine points and three boards vs. USC and a combined 15 points and eight rebounds vs. Illinois and MSU.
Sophomore guard Tyler Harris (Portland) is next at 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while freshman point guard Zoom Diallo, a top-50 recruit according to 247 Sports’ composite rankings, averages 10.8 points per contest for Sprinkle’s team.
Overall, U-Dub is simply not up to Big Ten standard. On defense, the Huskies are No. 7 nationally in limiting 3-pointers (28%) and No. 69 in efficiency (99.9), per KenPom, but on offense, the Huskies are No. 149 in efficiency (107.4), No. 201 in 2-point shooting (50.1%) and No. 240 on 3s (32%).
Depth on display
The Wolverines, meanwhile, continue to flex their depth and balance with each passing game.
Michigan just defeated UCLA by 19 on the road and did so by scoring 94 points (the most a Mick Cronin team has ever allowed at home) without perhaps its most proven guard: Roddy Gayle Jr. (knee bruise) missed Tuesday’s game vs. the Bruins. U-M coach Dusty May said then it was too early to say if he’d play Sunday.
“Long-term health is priority No. 1 for us,” May said. “But I would say he’ll be back relatively soon.”
Gayle is one of five U-M players scoring in double figures for May in his first season in Ann Arbor. After putting up a career-high 36 points vs. the Bruins, center Vlad Goldin now leads the Wolverines at 15.8 points per game. Point guard Tre Donaldson (13.1 points) is next while Danny Wolf, Goldin’s frontcourt partner, averages a double-double at 12.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
All three had standout games on the trip; Wolf started the L.A. double-dip becoming just the third NCAA player in more than 20 years with at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and six blocks, and Donaldson made a career-high four 3-pointers vs. USC, then topped it with six vs. UCLA.
And then there’s Gayle (12.4 points) and Nimari Burnett (10.5 points), who are both shooting better than 50% from the floor. Every starter has led the team in scoring at least once this season, a major reason U-M leads the country in 2-point shooting (62%) and effective field goal percentage (60.2%).
“I mean numbers don’t lie,” Donaldson said. “We’re shooting over 60% inside the arc, I mean just continuing to do that. We got big guys out here … with Danny doing what he does in and out. It’s hard to guard. Nobody’s seen nothing like that before.”
Prediction for Michigan basketball vs. Washington
The Wolverines’ outlook is worlds away from a year ago, when it was often U-M on the wrong side of the talent and coaching ledger. U-M is better than Washington in every facet. As long as the Wolverines don’t have a horrendous shooting night, or commit an egregious number of turnovers (they’re 16th nationally, at 15.2 per game), they just have too much talent and depth for U-Dub to slow down. The pick: U-M 88, Washington 68.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.