Analysis | Republicans feel fresh wind in their sails for November victories

MILWAUKEE — If you had asked House Republicans months ago whether they’d win the majority, many privately — and unequivocally — would have said no.

But one bad debate night by President Biden late last month and an assassination attempt against former president Donald Trump has rejuvenated a sense of unity and confidence palpable inside the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Republicans now think they will not only flip the Senate in their favor and win the White House, but also accomplish the tougher task of retaining their House majority.

• “I think there’s obviously going to be a big down-ballot effect,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told us in an interview yesterday about the impact of President Biden’s debate and the assassination attempt of Trump. “The chasm of enthusiasm is so wide between those two sides now, especially after a failed assassination attempt. I mean, Trump is legendary figure status now, and it has a very emotional effect for the electorate. I think we’re going to see that.”

Down-ballot races was a theme last night at the Republican convention. All the Republican Senate candidates in battleground states spoke in prime time, where they said that flipping the Senate was crucial to giving Trump the Congress he needs to enact his agenda.

“It’s all about energy. Nobody wants to show up to vote for a tired old career politician like (Sen.) Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Joe Biden,” Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno told us. “We have the energy, we have the enthusiasm, we have the vision for the future.”

Republicans were already on the verge of winning the Senate. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, who spoke at the convention with Babydog, his Bulldog, by his side, is expected to win the state’s open Senate seat, giving Republicans the 50th seat. Democrats would have to win all seven contested races and the presidency — for the tiebreaking vice presidency — to have a chance of keeping the Senate.

Holding on to the House was viewed as somewhat harder. But Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee responsible for electing House Republicans, says he’s more confident that Republicans will keep control of the House even as they are still waiting for post-debate polling to show whether their candidates have received a bump.

• “You add the whole layer of people now questioning whether he has the mental acuity to do the job, I think that only helps us and the data will show that probably,” Hudson told us. “We’re not going to campaign on his mental capacity.”

Indeed, House Democrats remain divided over whether Biden should be their party’s nominee as many fear his eroding lead in critical swing states will have down-ballot effects. “New fault lines are emerging within the party over somewhat obscure party nominating rules ahead of the Aug. 19 Democratic convention as well as ballot access deadlines in all 50 states,” Leigh Ann and our colleagues Paul Kane and Tyler Pager report.

Johnson said he and Trump have yet to talk about whether the former president will formally endorse him for another term as speaker if House Republicans keep the majority in November.

But the speaker, who has come under fire from the far right in his party for passing funding for Ukraine and grumbling from some factions for not being decisive enough, is confident in his future prospects. He notably mentioned that there is “an assumption that I’m going to be leading the next Congress on both of our parts.”

Johnson said he and Trump are working on crafting a joint agenda to pursue if he wins the White House and Republicans keep the House. The speaker said he has also kept senators in the loop to ensure the effort is achieved in a “bicameral, united fashion.”

“We need the same team to lead it through so that we can accomplish that,” Johnson said. “There won’t be a lot of time for drama and disruption at the beginning of all this. So I think that’s the assumption of membership and the president as well.”

Former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) agreed with his successor that Trump “will not allow turmoil to happen” in the days between when the House elects a speaker and the chamber certifying the election for him in early January 2025 if Republicans win in November.

“If they win seats, Johnson’s speaker,” McCarthy said.

Johnson believes Trump has changed since a shooter nicked his ear with a bullet Saturday evening.

Between sips of a Celsius energy drink, Johnson recounted his brief interactions with Trump since Saturday and said the former president “seems to be in a different place” and devoted ample time to “changing the content” of his acceptance speech Thursday to promote a united message.

Johnson recounted another influential near-death experience that “moved” Trump. The speaker’s two sons nearly drowned in the ocean near Mar-a-Lago last November, Johnson said, noting that Trump was “convinced it was miraculous,” that a parasailor happened to sail by and notice his son, the speaker said.

• “I reminded him after this event, ‘Mr. President, just like God saved my boys, he saved you as well. What a profound thing it is for God to have spared your life because apparently, he has more for you to do, and that you may be leading again the greatest nation in the history of the world for the second time,’” Johnson said.

“I think he’s thinking deeply about that,” Johnson added. “I think he’s thinking about the responsibility he has and the condition of the country, and that motivates a man.”

But the speakers at the Republican convention veered from Trump’s post-assassination attempt theme of unity. Many blamed Biden for an open border, allowing deadly fentanyl into the country and allowing undocumented people to vote. (Undocumented immigrants aren’t allowed to vote in federal elections.)

The Democratic National Committee responded with a memo.

“While Trump and his allies try to talk a big game, the truth is the speakers on stage tonight sided with the cartels over the Border Patrol, blocking bipartisan efforts to secure our border,” the DNC’s Alex Floyd wrote, referring to the bipartisan border bill Republicans rejected several months ago.

And the White House touted statistics that border crossings have dropped 50 percent in the past six weeks since Biden enacted stringent executive orders making it more difficult to seek asylum, our colleague Nick Miroff reports.

Sen. J.D. Vance, who Trump unveiled was his running mate on Monday, will give his acceptance speech tonight. We’ll be watching his tone and if he denounces any more funding for Ukraine.

Biden is continuing his swing across Las Vegas today, where he will talk directly to the Latino community just one day after courting Black voters at the NAACP conference Tuesday.

He’s set to speak to the UnidosUS Annual Conference and mingle with local supporters at a community coalition event. His second day in Vegas comes after the president ratcheted up the rhetoric and attacks against Trump just four days after Biden’s campaign paused operations shortly following the assassination attempt against his opponent.

Sign up here to watch Washington Post Live’s lineup of political programs this week:

• Wednesday, 2 p.m.: Michael Scherer interviews Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis) from the RNC in Milwaukee
• Thursday, 12 p.m.: Michael Duffy interviews Corey Lewandowski from the RNC in Milwaukee
• Thursday, 1 p.m.: Ramesh Ponnuru interviews New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)
• Friday, 9 a.m.: Jonathan Capehart hosts Post Live’s weekly show “First Look” with top Post reporters and columnists

While the GOP primary suggested the party was split over Trump early on, the Republican National Convention thus far has shown that Republicans are back to the point where loyalty to Trump is the most important factor.

There is perhaps no greater example of this than Trump’s recently announced running mate selection. While Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) started out as a Trump critic, in recent years he has established himself as one of Trump’s most loyal followers — even expressing a willingness to pick Trump over the Constitution.

• “Vance has said [that after Biden won the 2020 election] he would have used the vice president’s role overseeing the electoral count to recognize Trump electors from states the then-president didn’t win and that Congress ‘should have fought over it from there.’ That, he said in February as he auditioned to be Trump’s pick, was the proper way to deal with an election ‘that had a lot of problems,’” report our colleagues Colby Itkowitz, Beth Reinhard and Clara Ence Morse.

Other Trump critics turned allies found prominent spots at the convention this year. Trump’s biggest rivals in the primary this cycle, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, were given speaking slots and both expressed their support for Trump. While DeSantis endorsed Trump after he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary earlier this year, Haley gave her first full-throated endorsement of Trump in her speech.

• “In her warmly received remarks on Tuesday night, Haley spoke directly to those Republican voters who wanted to move on from Trump. She said Trump had ‘graciously’ asked her to speak to the convention ‘in the name of unity’ and that she wanted to make it clear, for the first time, that he had her full endorsement,” reports our colleague Maeve Reston.

“For the sake of our nation, we have to go with Donald Trump,” said Haley.

While Trump has pushed pro-worker messaging at the Republican National Convention, in private he continues to reassure wealthy donors that he is the best candidate for the wealthy and big business.

• “The two conflicting versions of the GOP’s future leave unsettled exactly how the former president would try to balance his party’s factions if he wins in November, probably setting up a reprisal of the tensions over economic policy that characterized his first term,” report our colleagues Josh Dawsey, Rachel Siegel, Jeff Stein and Laura Vozzella.

One of the more public displays of Trump’s pursuit of labor leaders is the presence of Teamsters President Sean O’Brien at the RNC. While O’Brien hasn’t endorsed Trump and the union has yet to endorse a candidate, O’Brien was given a speaking slot and Trump has been courting him for months.

Trump has simultaneously been pursuing wealthy donors by promising them he will cut corporate taxes if elected. Trump also suggested in a recent interview with Bloomberg that he may nominate JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary.

While Trump’s first term saw tension between pro-business and populist economic officials in his administration, Trump’s selection of Vance as his running mate may indicate that the populists around Trump may have the upper hand in his campaign this go-round.

• Trump-Vance Administration Could Herald New Era for Dollar. By the New York Times’s Alan Rappeport.
• Netanyahu works behind the scenes to win Trump back. By Axios’s Barak Ravid.

Thanks for reading. You can also follow Leigh Ann and Marianna on X: @LACaldwellDC and @MariannaReports.