You’re absolutely questioning, as a USC fan or as a Pac-12 fan, what is going to occur if there’s a three-way tie atop the Pac-12 standings on the finish of the season.
As a result of we’re a USC website, we’re clearly keen on three-way ties involving the Trojans. Naturally, we’re going to discover a three-way tie through which the Males of Troy are included.
As a result of UCLA misplaced to Oregon, USC and UCLA are at present in a state of affairs the place the winner of their Nov. 19 sport finishes forward of the opposite within the standings. There’ll probably not be a tie between the 2 groups.
So what’s left? A 3-way tiebreaker situation involving Utah, Oregon and USC. Let’s discover that situation.
When saying {that a} three-way tie would possibly happen, let’s be clear that with an entire month left within the season, there may be nonetheless a mathematical risk that the three-way tie may contain three groups with two losses apiece within the Pac-12.
Whether or not the three-way tie includes two-loss groups or three-loss groups may (and possibly would) change who wins the tiebreaker. That time must be famous on the outset.
If Oregon does lose twice — which is how a three-way tiebreaker would emerge if UCLA isn’t a part of it — this case may get very muddled. There are such a lot of eventualities to contemplate if the three tied groups have two convention losses. We gained’t point out each plot level of this situation, however we are going to point out one, as a result of it’s so essential.
If there’s a three-way tie involving Utah, Oregon and USC, and all three groups have two convention losses, which means that Utah — at present with one loss — loses a second sport.
Which workforce Utah loses to can be actually essential right here.
We’ll clarify by unpacking the three-way tiebreaker within the occasion that the three groups have only one Pac-12 loss, not two:
If three Pac-12 groups — Utah, Oregon and USC — all have two losses — it might matter so much whether or not Utah’s second Pac-12 loss involves Oregon or to a non-Oregon opponent.
Why? That is the place the three-loss tiebreaker dialogue positive factors its most central component if the groups end with only one convention loss.
If the three-way tie includes three groups with two Pac-12 losses, Utah dropping to Oregon would imply that the Utes wouldn’t have head-to-head wins over each Oregon and USC.
If Utah loses to a non-Oregon workforce, meaning Utah may have overwhelmed Oregon. The Utes would subsequently have head-to-head wins over Oregon and USC.
If the three groups have just one Pac-12 loss apiece and are a part of a three-way tie, that may imply Utah beats Oregon to drive the three-way tie. USC may have overwhelmed UCLA to turn out to be a part of the three-way tie.
If we have now a three-way tie with Utah, Oregon and USC all being 8-1 within the Pac-12, Utah goes to Las Vegas on account of two head-to-head wins within the three-way competitors.
Utah would go to Las Vegas if all three groups (Utes, Geese, Trojans) end 8-1 within the convention.
USC and Oregon didn’t play one another. They’ll have misplaced to Utah, in order that doesn’t break the tie between the Trojans and Geese.
They each beat UCLA. That might not break the tie.
They each beat Washington State. They each may have overwhelmed Oregon State.
Neither workforce would have a greater document towards widespread opponents, as a result of they each misplaced to the identical widespread opponent, Utah, below this situation.
This isn’t a assure, however it’s a probability: The tiebreaker which in all probability enters into play here’s a power of convention schedule tiebreaker, or a set of convention data of all of the Pac-12 opponents for USC and Oregon.
USC and Oregon performed all the identical opponents this season besides two: Oregon didn’t play Arizona State and USC didn’t play Washington. Oregon performed Washington. USC performed Arizona State.
It’s good for Oregon if Washington wins extra Pac-12 video games, and good for USC if Arizona State wins extra video games. ASU’s loss to Stanford subsequently hurts USC. ASU did beat Washington face to face, however the Solar Devils have to win extra convention video games if this tiebreaker is to work in USC’s favor.
All of it turns into so much less complicated for USC if Utah loses yet another sport.
If we assume that USC beats UCLA and Utah doesn’t stumble within the subsequent three weeks, Utah might be taking part in for a Pac-12 Championship Sport spot within the ultimate two weeks of the season, starting with the Oregon sport on Nov. 19. If Utah doesn’t lose a sport earlier than Nov. 19, and if USC beats UCLA, the Utes would then management their future for positive.
They could management their future anyway based mostly on a few of the secondary/further tiebreakers mentioned above, however once more, we’re not going to enter each doable permutation. Say this a lot: The Utes will surely like their possibilities if a three-team tie occurred.