Utah
Utah State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-16-2024
Utah State Aggies (16-1) vs. New Mexico Lobos (14-3)
The college basketball betting action goes on with another sensational Tuesday, so we are breaking down the Mountain West Conference showdown from The Pit in Albuquerque, New Mexico to get you the best Utah State vs. New Mexico pick and odds.
These teams are meeting for the first time this season. These teams have not played each other this season, but Utah State swept the season series last year and defeated New Mexico seven straight times. The Lobos enter as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 156.5.
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Aggies Look to Extend Winning Streak
The Utah State Aggies (16-1, 8-6-1 ATS) earned their 14th straight victory when they defeated UNLV on Saturday, 87-86. This team has not lost since losing to Bradley in overtime back on November 11. The Aggies are 4-1 (1-3-1 ATS) on the road. Utah State is 41st in the KenPom rankings and is 44th according to Bart Torvik.
This was an exciting victory for the Aggies, who found themselves trailing by seven at the half as UNLV shot 53.3% from the floor. However, Utah State was able to hold them to 36.4% in the second, rallying behind 50% shooting of their own. The Aggies went 23-25 from the free-throw line. That continues a dominating performance for this team as they are 11th in field-goal percentage (50.1%) and 155th in free-throw percentage (71.8%). This team is doing a great job getting to the line, 57th in free throws made per game (16.1) and 59th in free-throw attempts per contest (22.4).
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Great Osobor and Ian Martinez led the way with 24 points each. Osbor went 12-13 from the free-throw line and added 14 rebounds to earn the double-double. He leads the club at 18.9 points per contest, hitting 58.5% of his shots. Martinez is hitting 54.9% of his attempts. Utah State is 47th in points per 100 possessions (114.0) and 45th in points allowed per 100 possessions (97.9).
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Lobos Look to Remain Undefeated at Home
The New Mexico Lobos (14-3, 11-5-0 ATS) defeated San Diego State on Saturday, 88-70. After winning 12 of their first 13 games, the Lobos are 2-2 in their last four. New Mexico is undefeated at home, going 9-0 (7-1-0 ATS). New Mexico is 39th according to both KenPom and Bart Torvik.
New Mexico shot only 44.1% in the contest while San Diego State hit 40.6% of their shots. The big difference was that the Lobos went 21-31 from the free-throw line while the Aztecs were 11-20. That helped the club to blow open a three-point halftime lead. New Mexico has been very impressive defensively, 75th in opponent field-goal percentage (41.1%) yet is still 94th in shooting (46.6%).
Jaelen House led the way with 26 points, adding six rebounds and five assists. House is second on the club at 15.7 points per game, only hitting 38.3% of his shots. The Lobos are 68th in points per 100 possessions (111.9) and 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions (95.5).
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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Oddsmakers are very high on the Lobos in this contest, with some lines going as high as 5.5. However, while New Mexico may win this game, this is not going to be a decisive victory. The Lobos are hurt by the fact that they cannot hit free throws, 301st at 67.0%. That will keep them from being able to dominate this game.
Both of these teams know how to get to the free-throw line, but Utah State is hitting about 5% better at the line. They are also a little better shooting team and can rival New Mexico
Prediction: Take the Utah State Aggies at +4.5 (-102)
Full-Game Total Pick
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An interesting stat is that Utah State has not only won the last seven meetings but has scored 81 points or better in each of the last five victories. These clubs combined to score 157 points and 167 in the two games last year, and there is no reason to believe that the teams cannot put up some offense in this game as well.
Utah State has scored at least 80 in seven of their last nine contests. New Mexico has gone over 80 in five of their last 10. Look for a total of around 160 in this game.
Prediction: Go over 156.5 (-110)