If you haven’t read Sarah Todd’s latest article on the state of the Utah Jazz rebuild, get reading! Don’t worry, I’ll wait, just make sure you come back.

Thank you for coming back. Now, there’s some incredible stuff in there, and I may dissect it more in the future, but the first important quote that sticks out to me is this one about what Utah wants to do next year, even if they win the #1 pick this lottery and select Cooper Flagg. Todd writes:

Let’s start with what many view as the best case scenario — the Jazz getting the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 and selecting Cooper Flagg.

A starting lineup that features Flagg, Kessler and Markkanen sounds pretty incredible when thinking about future potential. But is that going to be a starting lineup that would win too many games? That’s a real fear, because the Jazz don’t want to give up their 2026 first-rounder.

AJ Dybantsa, the nation’s No. 1 basketball recruit, is presented at halftime of the BYU and Fresno State game at the Marriott Center in Provo on Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024. | Scott G Winterton, Deseret News

Advertisement

I want to be clear here, the Jazz absolutely want to have another high draft pick in 2026. With players like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer all looking like future stars, there’s good reason for the Jazz to want to lose a lot of games next season.

And they want to.

The only thing that could keep the Jazz from tanking next season would be a wildly huge move, like Devin Booker, Jayson Tatum or another top-tier player becoming available. Though those things are possible (let’s not forget we saw Luka Doncic traded this year), they’re not likely.

If you didn’t know, Utah’s pick next year is top-8 protected. If they fall out of the top-8, it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder. If that pick doesn’t convey, then it turns into second-round picks, and the saga of the Derrick Favors trade will be over. For me, hearing the Jazz absolutely want another top pick in next year’s draft is music to my ears. Utah is not even close to contending and the worst thing they can do is to jump the gun with just one pick. They are missing top-end talent, and the draft is the ONLY way for them to get that.

And barring a star player like Booker or Tatum from becoming available, as Todd says, they will plan on being bad again. So, how does that fit with Lauri Markkanen during this continued teardown? Todd writes:

So, then we look at what happens if the Jazz get Flagg but are too good to tank. The Jazz would obviously try to injury report their way into losses again, but keeping Flagg might require trading Markkanen or Kessler, and the Jazz already know that there is a market for both players and that teams will be willing to pay a pretty good price.

I’m not saying that the Jazz are definitely looking to trade either one of those guys. But it wouldn’t shock me if they did should they land Flagg. Of course, if they don’t get Flagg, they can probably massage their way through another tanking season without trading Markkanen or Kessler. Probably.

It certainly sounds like anything is on the table. Personally, if I had to choose between one of those players to move, I’m starting to think that player is Lauri Markkanen for a few reasons. The first is his new contract. Markkanen will be making around $50M in the next four years. Then, when Walker Kessler becomes contract eligible, It’s hard not to see him getting something like Isaiah Hartenstein got with the Oklahoma City Thunder (3 years, about $30M per year). So if Kessler gets something in that range along with Markkanen, that’s $80M tied between just those two. Now, that might work, but that’s going to be difficult for Utah to maneuver as things go along.

It gets even more difficult if the statistical trends we see from Markkanen continue. Markkanen is pretty lucky he’s gotten lost in the sauce in Utah. This season, Markkanen is shooting 42.5% from the field and 34.7% from three. And when you look at his defensive numbers, they’re not great. Whether it’s ESPN’s new net points analytics or Basketball Index’s D-Lebron, Markkanen grades out as a negative defender, sometimes a very negative defender. Not great when you consider he’s making max level money. And considering that we’ve learned that for him to succeed requires other players to set him up, it makes that contract look not great. Other people are starting to take notice, too. The Ringer’s top 100 has Lauri Markkanen at 48, and on Bill Simmons’s latest podcast, he got an honorable mention in their worst contract rankings. Not great.

Knowing that, and that the Utah Jazz do not have a cornerstone player, this offseason comes with a huge question: Should the Utah Jazz trade Lauri Markkanen?

Probably yes.