Could the first Mormon presidential candidate lose in Utah?

“You don’t belong right here.”

These have been the phrases from Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) to freshman and fabulist Rep. George Santos (R-NY) in an change earlier than President Joe Biden’s State of the Union handle. Romney later reiterated his criticism, calling Santos “a sick pet.”

Santos, who’s underneath hearth for fabricating a lot of his resume, had some phrases for Romney as nicely, although most of these have been misplaced within the din of the group. The following day, Santos advised reporters that it was “reprehensible that the senator would say such a factor to me within the demeaning approach he stated it.” Santos added of Romney that it “wasn’t very Mormon of him.”

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The hypothesis proper now in Washington surrounds Santos. Will he or gained’t he resign now that his prevarications have price him his committee assignments? Will additional investigations create much more hassle for him, together with his authorized woes? Would his resignation or ouster make the Home even more durable to control by chipping away on the slim 222-213 Republican majority?

But, politically, Romney, 75, could also be on shaky floor as nicely, and Santos might have struck at that weak spot.

Romney’s resume seems to be stable: a really profitable businessman who stepped in and saved the scandal-plagued 2002 Winter Olympics within the Salt Lake Metropolis space, a Republican governor of Massachusetts, the GOP nominee for president in 2012, and since profitable an open Senate seat in Utah in 2018, a senator from America’s solely majority-Mormon state.

However examine the references on that resume.

Romney managed to get elected because the governor of Massachusetts however not get reelected. He declined to run once more in 2006, it appeared on the time, to deal with profitable the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, which he misplaced to the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). However Romney additionally confronted the actual risk of defeat if he had sought a second time period because the governor of the Bay State, a Democratic stronghold.

Because the Republican standard-bearer for president in 2012, Romney didn’t put up a lot of a battle towards President Barack Obama. Romney amassed 206 Electoral School votes and 47.2% of the favored vote towards Obama’s 332 Electoral School votes and 51.1% romp.

Romney had one good debate towards Obama, however his marketing campaign didn’t get extra traction. A lot of Romney’s assaults towards Obamacare rang hole when it was identified that the 2010 healthcare legislation (the Reasonably priced Care Act) was principally Romneycare writ giant from his Massachusetts governor days. The untested app that Romney had banked on serving to Republicans get out the vote on election night time didn’t work, ensuing within the Republicans by chance suppressing their very own votes.

When requested if he’d be prepared to run once more for the presidency, Romney advised the Boston Globe, “Oh, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. No, no, no.”

Six years after that loss, Romney was elected to the Senate not from Massachusetts however from the secure Republican seat of Utah, succeeding Sen. Orrin Hatch, a fellow Republican and the president professional tempore of the Senate, which made Hatch third within the line of presidential succession. Romney secured the nomination partly on the energy of getting been the one major-party Mormon presidential nominee and was simply elected, with 62.6% of the vote, which is near the proportion of Latter-day Saints in Utah.

The nationwide typical knowledge was that Romney would be capable to occupy that seat for so long as he noticed match, as Hatch had held it down for 42 years. Nevertheless, whereas Utah is a solidly Republican state, each major and common election voters have proven a shocking quantity of independence in recent times.

Though former President Donald Trump gained there in 2016, he received solely 45.5% of the vote — not as a result of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton did particularly nicely, however as a result of unbiased candidate Evan McMullin raked in 21.5% of the vote. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) confronted a tricky reelection marketing campaign in 2022, additionally towards McMullin, profitable solely 55.2% of the first vote. Former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT) tried to reclaim his workplace in 2020 however didn’t make it by the first.

Although Romney did nicely in Utah’s common election in 2018, he narrowly misplaced the Republican state nominating conference to state Rep. Mike Kennedy. As a result of neither hit the edge of 60% of the vote, major voters have been capable of pull Romney over the road.

As a senator, Romney has taken to poking fellow Republicans within the eye. He twice voted for Trump’s impeachment, for example, and has sided with Democrats on quite a lot of subjects, together with marching for the Black Lives Matter motion and most just lately bashing Santos within the joint session of Congress.

Some Republicans can get away with that kind of belligerence towards choose members of their very own occasion. McCain was well-known for it. So is Trump. However it’s attainable Romney’s schtick is carrying a bit skinny with Utahns. A November Deseret Information/Hinckley Institute ballot of Utah voters discovered {that a} mixed 51.3% of locals thought he ought to “positively not” or “in all probability not” run for reelection.

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Thus far, there is no declared Republican rival towards Romney for the occasion’s 2024 Senate nomination. And there is loads of time for a non-Romney area to develop, with the submitting deadline greater than a yr away in March 2024.

However state Lawyer Common Sean Reyes has been making noises about leaping into the fray. Count on them to develop louder the extra Romney dissents from GOP Senate orthodoxy.