We spent the entirety of 2023 waiting for the Red Bulls to match their underlying numbers. They needed a last-minute John Tolkin penalty to sneak into the Wild Card Round and keep their playoff streak alive, but if we had played the season on a spreadsheet they would have had a home playoff spot wrapped by Decision Day. New York finished fourth league-wide in expected points and expected goal differential while allowing the fewest expected goals in the East. They even finished first in goals added differential. They were outstanding on paper. They were frustrating (and unlucky) on the field.

Between third and ninth in the Eastern Conference.

It’s the Red Bulls. We have 14 years of precedent here that suggests picking them to not make the playoffs is a mistake. They’re going to finish ninth or higher. And it’s not tough to envision them turning some of those excellent underlying numbers last year into actual results. New DP midfielder Emil Forsberg could be their best signing in a long, long time. Attacker Lewis Morgan could be healthy again after a bummer of a season that saw him miss nearly the entire year. Their presence could be enough to send the Red Bulls toward their ceiling. If they fill their open DP spot with the elite No. 9 they’ve been missing, they’re going to be a nightmare to deal with. That doesn’t guarantee a top spot in this year’s East, but it doesn’t hurt either.

It’s Tolkin and it will be Tolkin until he leaves. The swagger, the hair, the talent. He’s a star. He shows us who we could be without all the crippling anxiety and self-doubt.

If Forsberg is who we expect him to be, Morgan looks something like he did in 2022 when he scored 14 goals, and DP No. 9 to be named later is effective in the way other Red Bull strikers haven’t been, then this could be one of the best Red Bulls teams in a while. It may not show up in the standings in the crowded East, but they’re going to be a bear to wrestle every time out. That could translate to a stellar season. Or, ya know, it could end up feeling like the same old Red Bulls team struggling to be anything but dependable.