What New Seattle City Council Districts Mean for 2023 Elections

The Seattle Redistricting Fee authorised its ultimate map for Seattle Metropolis Council districts on Tuesday, making no additional modifications from the map we coated final week. All seven council districts noticed tweaks, however CD6 and CD7 acquired a number of the most dramatic and most debated modifications.

Within the subsequent decade of council elections, most of Magnolia is parting methods with downtown CD7 and changing into a part of Ballard’s CD6. The fee break up Magnolia alongside the ridge with coast-facing aspect to the west in D6, and Queen Anne dealing with houses to the east in D7. This proved controversial, however finally has a logic, for the reason that extra apartment-heavy space in jap Magnolia arguably shares extra in frequent with Interbay than the view houses excessive above Elliott Bay.

Relatedly, Crown Hill and North Greenwood are leaving D6 and becoming a member of North Seattle’s D5. Pioneer Sq. is leaving D7 and becoming a member of West Seattle’s D1. A piece of South Lake Union that had been with U District in D3 is becoming a member of D7, uniting the neighborhoods south of the Montlake Reduce.

That set of modifications ought to make the voting patterns of D6 extra conservative, whereas D7 will turn out to be progressive, based mostly on previous outcomes. Magnolia (particularly within the view residence areas) has been a bastion for extra conservative candidates, whereas Crown Hill and Greenwood have been comparatively pleasant to progressives. The shift ought to buoy D7 Councilmember Andrew Lewis’s reelection odds, however it is going to create headwinds for D6 Councilmember Dan Strauss. Each got here in throughout the progressive wave of 2019, which was pivotal in passing the JumpStart company payroll tax that saved town’s funds amidst the pandemic and rapidly turn out to be a high income for reasonably priced housing investments.

Will probably be fascinating to see if Strauss tacks to the anticipated centrist drift of the district — to some extent he already has. However, as land use chair, Strauss can be in place to an unimaginable quantity of excellent for residents battling their housing prices. Including extra zoning for flats and lacking center housing might assist alleviate Seattle’s lengthy roiling housing disaster, and he expressed curiosity in doing so again in his 2019 marketing campaign. Strauss is in place to be a catalyst (or a bottleneck) for zoning reform because the 2024 Complete Plan replace presents a serious window of alternative.

Progressive alternative in D5

D5 might turn out to be a bit extra pleasant to progressive candidates by gaining Crown Hill and North Greenwood and shedding of Wedgwood, which has largely favored extra conservative candidates. Wedgwood is getting absolutely united in D4, with the northern chunk leaving D5.

Council President Debora Juarez, who represents D5, instructed the Puget Sound Enterprise Journal that she doesn’t plan to hunt a 3rd time period, however maybe the prospect of retaining her council presidency and dealing along with her ally in Mayor Bruce Harrell will trigger her to alter her thoughts. In 2019, Juarez received by a whopping 20 factors over conservative challenger Ann Davison, who went on to turn out to be Seattle Metropolis Legal professional in 2021 due to some institution Democrat backing and a centrist wave 12 months.

Assist for Herbold in D1

Georgetown and SoDo, in the meantime, are leaving CD2 and becoming a member of CD1, which can be gaining Pioneer Sq.. These additions ought to trigger D1 voting patterns to tilt a bit extra progressive. Nonetheless, Councilmember Lisa Herbold might have a tricky reelection marketing campaign. Opponents might search to dump the difficulty of crime on her plate since she is public security chair. Herbold advocated for diverting some funds from the Seattle Police Division to put money into community-based public security alternate options, however has additionally opposed trimming SPD’s “ghost” place funding in 2021 and absolutely funded SPD’s hiring plan. The problem of policing and public security might lower both manner. Leesa Manion’s obvious decisive win over a tough-on-crime candidate (Federal Manner Mayor Jim Farrell) within the King County Prosecutor race exhibits that overplaying that hand might backfire. Plus, Herbold did win by 12 factors in 2019.

D3: Nonetheless progressive, however lefty sufficient for Sawant?

Eastlake is leaving D4 and becoming a member of D3. D3 is shedding its portion of Chinatown-Worldwide District and Yesler Terrace, however gaining a couple of blocks of First Hill. This set of modifications are a little bit of a blended bag, however might make D3 a tad much less progressive on internet. Mount Baker and Yesler Terrace largely supported the recall try towards Councilmember Kshama Sawant for instance, however the Worldwide District opposed it. Eastlake is a little bit of blended bag itself, with some progressive-leaning precincts within the denser inside, however waterfront precincts have supported centrists in current elections.

Sawant is more likely to have a tricky race on her palms, given how narrowly she averted recall in 2021. It’s not sure she’s going to search one other time period, which might be her fourth. If she did step apart, it will appear to be a district that also solidly favors progressives — even when it has doubtlessly soured on the socialist firebrand that has represented it for the reason that district system was adopted in 2015. However in fact, Sawant has defied the chances and high-spending campaigns towards her earlier than; so, it’s onerous to rule her out.

Treading water in D4

To the north, D4 could get a bit extra conservative with the addition of Wedgwood and lack of Eastlake. However, as I famous in August, “the torrid tempo of residence building within the College District, Roosevelt, and within the Stone Manner hall might finally pull the district towards progressives as youthful individuals transfer into the realm. And progressives might look again at Alex Pedersen’s four-point win over socialist Shaun Scott and conservative voting report as soon as on council and see a possibility.” If residence dwellers in D4 (new or in any other case) prove in adequate numbers, Pedersen might be in bother. The catch is turnout in tenant-heavy precincts is commonly very low in odd-year elections.

Morales is a mighty incumbent in D2

To the south, Mount Baker, Chinatown-Worldwide District, and Yesler Terrace are becoming a member of D2, however Georgetown and SoDo are leaving it. It’s onerous to say if it will likely be extra progressive that it already was, however D2 definitely seems more likely to stay very progressive and more likely to reelect Councilmember Tammy Morales, who grabbed 60% of the vote in 2019.

A glance again on the redistricting course of

All in all, it’s a good map that rectifies a variety of former points like splitting of a variety of communities of coloration, equivalent to Yesler Terrace and Chinatown-Worldwide District. This optimistic result’s largely a credit score to Redistricting Justice Seattle, a grassroots coalition fashioned to advertise racial fairness and do proper by traditionally marginalized communities within the redistricting course of. The ultimate map, regardless of some tweaks and tried overhauls, largely follows the framework and map proposal put forth by the coalition.

Confronted with a proposal to recreation that map by including an extra break up in Fremont to unite all of Magnolia and Interbay in D6, Commissioner E.J. Juárez famous the majority of public suggestions all through the method favored the Redistricting Justice Seattle map. “I believe it will be a disgrace for us to throw out the months of activism, the month of engagement from these of us, who had a really concrete map that’s incongruous with the traces proposed right here,” Juárez mentioned.

Finally, that argument — and the outpouring of public assist undergirding it — dominated the day, at the same time as Commissioner Nickels tried repeatedly to remake the map in a much less equitable manner.

Publicola‘s Erica Barnett famous that Nickels even appeared to embrace White grievance politics as he accused those that supported the map of being out for “retribution” towards Magnolia.

“Retribution [against] Magnolia as a result of it’s an older, wealthier and whiter neighborhood—I believe that’s not one thing that the redistricting fee must be engaged in,” Nickels mentioned. “I don’t suppose that particular person commissioners are participating in that, however I wish to make it clear that I believe that that’s simply an inappropriate social coverage for redistricting to tackle. And in a bigger sense, as we discuss race and social justice, I believe that reconciliation goes to be a way more profitable technique than retribution.”

Because the proposals to unite all the peninsula of Magnolia in a single council district concerned splitting up different neighborhoods, like Fremont or the College District, it’s onerous to see how Nickels’ technique wouldn’t have additionally been “retribution” simply directed at different quarters.

Use the slider beneath to match the previous council district map to the brand new one.

How we acquired right here

The redistricting fee is required to stability out every district’s inhabitants so they’re even. Because the parameters are decided by the 2020 census, which pegged Seattle’s inhabitants at 737,015, every district should have roughly 105,300 residents. These census figures exhibits that District 7 was extraordinarily overpopulated based mostly on a decade of very sturdy development, whereas Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 had been underpopulated after rising slower than town common. The census decided District 3 was pretty overpopulated, and District 4 was barely overpopulated.

In Seattle’s case, the mayor will get to nominate two commissioners and the council, by a two-thirds vote, will get to elect two commissioners. These 4 commissioners then vote so as to add another commissioner that completes the five-member Seattle Redistricting Fee.

Again in 2021, Mayor Durkan chosen former Mayor Greg Nickels and philanthropy skilled Neelima Shah as her picks. The town council chosen Juárez, who’s director of fairness and environmental justice on the Washington DNR, and Rory O’Sullivan, who’s a lawyer and FairVote Washington board chair. The fee then appointed Persistence Malaba, who’s government director of the Housing Growth Consortium, as their fifth member and chair.

The fee hosted conferences by way of the summer season and fall gathering enter from the general public and permitting of us to suggest their very own maps. The vigorous debate and defenses confirmed the affect of these maps because the fee balanced out district populations whereas respecting pure boundaries and sought to maintain essentially the most neighborhoods united inside districts.

After a lot debate, we’ve arrived on the ultimate maps. Now the jockeying and maneuvering for the 2023 council elections can start in earnest.