Seattle, WA
Westneat: ‘Seattle problem’ spreads
A decade in the past, Republicans convened a gathering at a political convention in Ocean Shores, Grays Harbor County, to debate what they dubbed “the Seattle drawback.”
“James Carville famously coined the motto … ‘It’s the economic system, silly,’ ” a GOP marketing campaign advisor advised the group. “Our drawback shouldn’t be King County. It’s Seattle, silly. That’s all it’s.”
The gist was that Seattle had change into so left-wing {that a} first rate aim for GOP candidates was to lose it by solely 50 proportion factors. However the suburbs weren’t just like the activist metropolis. Give attention to average locations like Bellevue, Federal Method or Redmond, the convention concluded, and Republicans can just do high-quality.
A precinct evaluation of our newest election reveals how seismically politics has shifted since then. In an election during which Republicans hoped individuals would recoil from Seattle, the suburbs as an alternative ended up mimicking it.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Patty Murray gained Seattle by 88 p.c to 11 p.c, a 77-point margin. For GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley to earn solely 11 p.c of the Seattle vote means she scarcely did any higher than the most-loathed determine in Seattle in reminiscence, Donald Trump.
However what must be setting off GOP sirens is that the supposedly extra sober and cautious suburbs have gotten almost as left-wing as town.
Take Issaquah. It was often called “Swingtown, WA,” as a result of manner the city swiveled between Republicans and Democrats. However final week Issaquah backed Murray by 73 p.c to 27 p.c. Murray gained Bellevue by 40 factors, Kirkland by 44 and Redmond by a crushing 50 factors.
Even within the south finish and different factors distant from Seattle, the GOP is reeling. Murray gained each Federal Method and Auburn by about 60-40.
The issue for Republicans isn’t that this was an uncommon setback. It’s that it’s the brand new regular. For 4 elections in a row, the blue vote totals have soared within the ‘burbs — this newest one coming with out Trump himself even on the poll. It means the occasion’s desultory “MAGA” picture round right here is turning into baked in.
A few of the suburbs are beginning to vote type of Seattle-like even on hot-button city points equivalent to crime.
Take the nonpartisan King County prosecutor’s race. It pitted a “get powerful on crime” candidate, Jim Ferrell, in opposition to a candidate providing a extra nuanced method, Leesa Manion. Manion campaigned closely on ramping up different sentencing and courtroom diversion applications whereas additionally saying extra sources are wanted for conventional regulation enforcement.
The “get powerful” candidate misplaced. This was regardless of rising violent crime. He misplaced in Seattle, which could be anticipated, however he additionally misplaced in a number of suburbs.
Does this settle our go-hard or go-soft debate about crime? Most likely not, however it could make the image clearer. The purpose is: It’s not solely a Seattle factor anymore.
As for the way forward for our native politics, the GOP’s prospects appear dismal. So long as the nationwide occasion continues its jihad in opposition to reproductive rights and Trump looms off to the east like a mushroom cloud, it’s onerous to see how native Republicans will escape the poisonous fallout.
The underside line is the GOP doesn’t simply have a “Seattle drawback” anymore. It has unfold. The suburbs, which as soon as could have shaped a buffer of moderation across the metropolis, have gotten town.