Weekend Reads: Examining the Seattle Chamber of Commerce Poll | South Seattle Emerald

by Kevin Schofield

This weekend’s learn is the second version of the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce’s twice-yearly “The Index” ballot on voter sentiment in Seattle. It made headlines earlier this week, with the Chamber declaring that respondents had change into extra pessimistic about our metropolis for the reason that earlier ballot in August.

Earlier than we dive into the outcomes, nonetheless, it’s price contemplating how a lot we belief the Chamber to precisely painting the viewers’s sentiments. Polls like this are statistical samples: A small share of individuals are interviewed, and their solutions (after some processing) are offered as representing the broader inhabitants. Ballot outcomes are by no means precisely right; relatively, they’re offered as being inside a “margin of error” of the reality. Typically talking, the upper the variety of people who find themselves polled, the extra correct the outcomes, as a result of people with excessive “outlier” views have much less influence on the entire consequence. The converse can be essential: The less individuals polled, the upper the margin of error, as a result of “outliers” have extra influence.

The Chamber polled 700 registered voters for its survey and calculated that it has a margin of error of three.9%, which means that if 50% of survey respondents stated “sure” to a given query, then someplace between 46.1% and 53.9% of Seattle registered voters would additionally say “sure.” As we’re studying by way of the survey outcomes, if we see that the distinction between two solutions is lower than 3.9%, then there isn’t any measurable distinction between them. Additionally, if the change from the earlier survey is lower than 3.9% (in both route), it’s primarily unchanged.

However there are some essential caveats to this. The primary, and most essential, is that the three.9% margin of error applies solely to questions requested of all 700 respondents; the margin for any subgroup will likely be larger — and doubtlessly a lot larger if the subgroup may be very small. We all know from different sources that about 61% of Seattle registered voters are Democrats: nearly 450,000 individuals. Assuming they’re proportionally represented within the Chamber’s ballot, that may imply the Chamber surveyed about 427 registered Democrats. However Native People and Alaska Natives make up solely 0.5% of Seattle’s voters — about 3,700 individuals — and a proportional illustration of them would solely be about 3 or 4 individuals out of the 700 polled. One excessive outlier among the many Democrats polled will get pretty diluted, however one outlier among the many Native People may have an outsize influence on the outcomes for that subgroup. The Chamber is sensible sufficient to not escape outcomes for an ethnic group that small, but it surely does present breakouts for Socialists (7% of voters) and Republicans (12%), regardless that they’d respectively solely account for 49 and 84 of the survey responses. 

Pollsters take care of this concern by deliberately over-polling small subgroups, after which re-weighting the outcomes to match the true demographics of the inhabitants. The Chamber doesn’t say whether or not it did certainly over-sample the smaller teams, but it surely does clarify that it weighted the responses to match town’s demographic profile, and to match the proportion of registered voters in every Metropolis Council district. The latter was essential, as a result of it deliberately polled 100 people from every of the seven Council districts, regardless that registered voters (or different demographics) usually are not equally distributed throughout them. Practically all polls endure from “response bias,” which means that folks with sturdy emotions and opinions usually tend to take the time to reply, so a ballot this small with important weighting may very well be closely influenced by response bias. Furthermore, this ballot was restricted to registered voters, which is extra consultant of the inhabitants than the traditional “probably voters” utilized in election polls, however that also leaves out a big fraction of Seattle adults who usually are not registered to vote — together with those that usually are not U.S. residents.

The takeaway: It is a comparatively small ballot that has been closely rebalanced to attempt to match voter demographics. The mixture makes it extra susceptible to bias within the outcomes. That doesn’t imply it’s biased, however we must always not give a lot credence to small variations, and even much less to measurements for small demographic teams. Then again, the place we see massive variations and constant patterns throughout subgroups, that can provide us extra confidence within the outcomes. However we additionally must remember that this ballot is a political instrument: It solely surveyed voters, not the overall inhabitants, implying that its intent is to ship a message to elected officers on what the voters need.

The Chamber’s report on its ballot incorporates 62 pages of detailed charts; I’m going to depart most of it so that you can learn by way of by yourself (with the above caveats), but it surely’s price mentioning a couple of of the highest outcomes.

Total, 76% of these surveyed felt that Seattle is on the flawed observe, a rise of 8 factors for the reason that final ballot; that’s double the margin of error, so it’s a measurable shift. Equally, 81% felt that the general high quality of life in Seattle is worse than 4 years in the past, a rise of 5 factors (simply barely larger than the margin of error). Respondents had been break up 50-50 as as to whether they’re optimistic about the way forward for the area. Not surprisingly, and in a sample we see in a lot of the ballot’s outcomes, the responses are extremely politicized. Democrats — the celebration in energy in Seattle — are way more constructive, and independents and Republicans are way more unfavorable. That could be a frequent consequence in political polls: The celebration in energy thinks issues are higher, and the events out of energy suppose they’re worse — and their views will flip in a single day when the celebration in energy modifications.

Apparently, a supermajority of each demographic believed that the standard of life is worse in Seattle now in contrast with 4 years in the past. Demographic variations are constantly inside the margin of error for practically each class apart from political affiliation, and for the age 50–64 demographic. Of notice: There are a number of questions for which the age 50–64 group is an excessive outlier, hinting (however not proving) that the outcomes for that subgroup (20% of the inhabitants) is probably not correct.

Two-thirds of survey respondents stated they’ve actively thought-about leaving Seattle. Once more, it’s decrease for Democrats and better for independents and Republicans, but it surely was nonetheless a majority of Democrats and even Socialists. That is in line with a nationwide pattern that has been known as “The Nice Sorting,” by which individuals throughout the nation are transferring to communities that share their political views.

On homelessness, the highest concern for survey respondents, there was a 73-point margin between those that needed the Metropolis to offer outreach, supply shelter, and take away encampments (86%), and those that wish to cease all encampment “sweeps” solely (13%). It is a bit deceptive, as a result of these had been the one two decisions, permitting no room for these with extra nuanced views, but it’s a devastating blow to the “Cease the Sweeps” motion. Amongst Democrats, 89% opted for encampment removals; even 55% of Socialists held that view. On the similar time, there was sturdy assist for increasing regional and state partnerships on homelessness response, and for investing extra in behavioral well being applications.

On public security: A majority of each demographic — and a supermajority of most — don’t really feel secure visiting Downtown Seattle at evening. Over three-quarters of survey respondents additionally most well-liked reforming the Seattle Police Division (SPD) whereas hiring again officers over a “defund and decriminalize” method; although, as with the homeless encampment query, there was no room for nuanced solutions to this difficult query. In an analogous vein, no group — not even Socialists or Democrats — trusts the Seattle Metropolis Council to reform SPD. 

There are further sections within the survey report on housing, taxes, the Metropolis funds, the trail to prosperity, and little one care. 

The apparent takeaway from the survey report, and maybe the one which the Chamber was on the lookout for given its political bent, was an absence of assist for essentially the most progressive insurance policies that the Metropolis Council and a coalition of activist organizations have been pushing for. It’s laborious to overlook that the outcomes of lots of the questions are extremely politicized, with independents and Republicans on a really completely different web page than Democrats and Socialists; that’s in all probability to be anticipated, given our present nationwide politics. Then again, the locations the place there may be an awesome consequence and little distinction throughout political events, together with police reform and eradicating homeless encampments, ship a transparent message to newly seated Mayor Harrell and to the Metropolis Council.

The Index (Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce)

Kevin Schofield is a contract author and the founding father of Seattle Metropolis Council Perception, an internet site offering unbiased information and evaluation of the Seattle Metropolis Council and Metropolis Corridor. He additionally co-hosts the “Seattle Information, Views and Brews” podcast with Brian Callanan, and seems sometimes on Converge Media and KUOW’s Week in Overview.

? Featured picture by JamesWM.foto/Shutterstock.com.

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