Kraken (11-6-6) vs. Oilers (10-10-5) | Seattle Kraken

One: Pounce on a division rival – It’s no secret the Edmonton Oilers aren’t exactly where they want to be at this point. They’ve dropped four of their last five games and have given up a ton of goals in doing so. This home-and-away series for the Kraken five days apart is the chance to gain some Pacific Division separation.

Doing so will require taking at least three of a possible four points in the two games, and that starts at Climate Pledge Arena, where they’ve beaten the Oilers in their last two head-to-head meetings, including just five weeks ago. The Kraken are three points ahead of their 10-10-5 division counterparts with two games in hand, so you can see how valuable gaining some additional ground might be.

Nobody really factored the Kraken in for a playoff spot this season, and to gain one, they’ll need to slip into a power vacuum somewhere. No better one than this. Do not be fooled: The Oilers have pulled early-season stumbles the past few years ahead of roaring back into their usual playoff positioning come January and February.

Three years ago, the playoff-bound Kraken headed into Edmonton for a mid-January contest with a five-point lead on the Oilers and a chance to stretch it to seven. Alas, they lost and the Oilers soon roared on by them in the standings and topped it all off by winning 18 of 21 down the stretch to finish nine points ahead of a pretty good 100-point Kraken team.

Last season, starting on New Year’s Eve, the Oilers went on a run that saw them win eight of nine and 12 of 15. Two seasons ago, they were 5-12-1 just before Thanksgiving, then won eight in a row and came late December, embarked on an epic 16-game win streak that helped propel them to the playoffs and the Stanley Cup Final.

That isn’t to say the Oilers will automatically rebound this season. But recent history tells us it’s probably best not to tempt fate with the defending two-time Western Conference champs and to pounce on them now while you still have a chance. Otherwise, odds are pretty good they’ll find another gear in weeks ahead.

Two: Score some goals – This game essential risks getting repetitive but to pounce on the Oilers, the Kraken will need to do something other teams have frequently managed and that’s putting pucks past their goalies. While the Kraken took more shots on goal in a 3-2 loss to Dallas the other night, they didn’t score enough. One goal every 14 shots still won’t cut it in a league where an average team needs just nine or 10 to strike paydirt.

It doesn’t help that the Kraken on Friday announced that Jaden Schwartz, tied for the team lead with eight goals, is now out an estimated six weeks with a lower-body injury.

“That’s a big one,” Kraken head coach Lane Lambert said after Friday’s practice.

The good news is that winger Kaapo Kakko practiced Friday without a red no-contact jersey and could be back for Saturday’s game. Kakko was practicing on a line with Berkly Catton and Freddy Gaudreau, which could make for an interesting third trio if it holds.

“I think he’s progressing nicely, he’s getting closer – which is nice to see,” Lambert said, not tipping his hand as to whether Kakko will play against Edmonton.

Jared McCann also got to shake some rust off – as well as a tooth – his first game back against Dallas and now the team needs him to keep providing an offensive boost.

“We have to have other guys step up,” Lambert said. “Not only on the ice but off the ice.”

The Kraken somehow went 2-1-1 on their recent road trip despite averaging just two goals per game. They’ve also now gone five straight games without scoring more than twice in regulation and that’s somewhat different from the opening six weeks or so when they were scoring at least three goals on a more frequent basis.

Three goals in regulation will get this defensive-minded team a win almost every time as the Kraken are 8-0-3 in such situations. Two goals is a dice roll usually involving some overtime luck to generate points, as they are 2-6-3 when failing to score at least three in regulation.

So, that one added goal makes all the difference. The Kraken certainly took more shots against Dallas. Now, it’s a matter of converting those chances. The team has talked about getting the puck out of their own end more quickly to increase their offensive zone time and did do that against the Stars on Wednesday night. But whichever way you slice it, once the Kraken do gain possession somebody needs to put the puck in the net more often.

Three: Know the foe – If these weren’t the two-time defending Cup finalists, you could almost say the Oilers are the perfect tonic for what ails the Kraken offense. They’ve given up 25 goals in their last five games, including 22 of them in four losses that span.

Dallas hung an eight-spot on Edmonton earlier in the week and that came just 17 days after Colorado scored nine times on them. Not surprisingly, the Oilers are second-worst in the league in goals given up per game at 3.72 and worst in save percentage at .868.

Stuart Skinner usually bears the brunt of netminding criticism for the Oilers, and this season is no exception as he’s played twice as many games as backup Calvin Pickard in posting a record of 8-7-3 with a goals against average of 3.18 and a save percentage of .878. But numbers-wise, Pickard has been even worse with a 2-3-2 mark, a 4.04 goals against average and .847 save percentage.

Still, the usual Oilers caveats apply. You don’t give their best offensive players a chance to bury you, starting with Connor McDavid and his team-leading 34 points, Leon Draisaitl and his club-best 14 goals and Evan Bouchard – whose 21 points as a defenseman is seven better than any active Kraken player now that Schwartz is out.

Journeyman Jack Roslovic, 28, is having himself a season as well, tied with McDavid for second most goals on the team at 10 after coming over as a last-minute depth addition out of training camp on a one-year, $1.5 million deal after previously going unsigned all summer as a free agent forward.

Still, the Oilers don’t feel as deep offensively as in the past, and that shows in their 3.08 goals per game scored – only 17th of 32 teams. It gets even more concerning once you move past their third-ranked power play unit and discover they’ve averaged only 2.4 goals per game in even-strength play. For context, that’s not all that much better than the Kraken’s 2.04 goals per contest at 5-on-5. We’ve discussed Kraken offensive shortcomings ad nauseam, but these are the Oilers we’re talking about! They used to be lethal in any offensive situation. Not so thus far.

A big reason has been the Oilers’ limiting shots to the perimeter and not getting in tight for “greasy goals” from high-danger chances. That plays right into the Kraken’s defensive strategy and should bode well for the home team if it continues.

Projected lines (not official):

Marchment-Beniers-Eberle
McCann-Stephenson-Tolvanen
Kakko-Gaudreau-Catton
Kartye-Wright-Winterton

Dunn-Larsson
Lindgren-Montour
Evans-Oleksiak

Daccord