Analysis: Can Seahawks Fend Off 49ers, Rest of Rivals to Win NFC West Crown?

Set to start preparations for the Raiders popping out of their bye week, the Seahawks stay in first place within the NFC West with a reliable likelihood to crash the playoff social gathering when few folks anticipated them to be aggressive in 2022.

Led by a resurgent Geno Smith beneath middle and an opportunistic protection tied for fourth within the NFL in turnovers created, Seattle at the moment sits half a recreation forward of San Francisco. With seven video games left to play and a rematch looming between the 2 groups at Lumen Area in Week 15, as identified by coach Pete Carroll, “all the things is forward” of them they usually management their very own future.

Taking a look at their prospects for holding onto the highest spot within the division, listed here are 5 explanation why the Seahawks are constructed to hold on and clinch the west and 5 explanation why they may probably wrestle to outlast the 49ers.

Why Seattle WILL win NFC West

1. They’ve the most effective quarterback within the division.

Earlier than the beginning of the season, few prognosticators would have ranked the Seahawks quarterback room wherever besides the cellar within the NFC West. However with Geno Smith dropping dimes every week and taking part in like a reliable MVP candidate throwing to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and his bevy of weapons, it is near-impossible to state a case for another quarterback within the division forward of him heading into the ultimate seven video games. After main his staff to a Lombardi Trophy in February, Matthew Stafford has battled by means of an elbow harm and now has been concussed twice in three weeks, casting doubts about his availability for a struggling Rams squad. Kyler Murray is not wholesome both and has not performed as much as his contract a lot of the 12 months with the Cardinals additionally two video games beneath .500. Jimmy Garoppolo has been stable changing Trey Lance and returning beneath middle for the 49ers, however he nonetheless has six much less touchdowns and 500 passing yards lower than Smith. At crucial place in sports activities, the Seahawks have the clear unlikely edge and may have the most effective quarterback on the sector in most of their remaining video games.

2. They’ve a younger offensive line that ought to solely enhance down the stretch.

By way of low expectations, an offensive line that includes two rookie starters in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas at deal with wasn’t far beneath quarterback on the roster totem pole for the Seahawks heading into the common season. Placing a new-look line with three new starters in entrance of a journeyman quarterback spelled recipe for catastrophe. And, but, a lot as Smith has stunned, the entrance line has been greater than serviceable by means of the primary 10 weeks of the season, significantly in move safety. As a unit, spearheaded by the management of middle Austin Blythe and the instant affect of Cross and Lucas defending the sting, Seattle ranks fifth in ESPN’s Move Block Win Price metric and tenth in Professional Soccer Focus’ move block grade rankings. If there is a clear space of improvement, the Seahawks have acquired marginal run blocking at instances, rating twenty second in Run Block Win charge and seventeenth in run blocking grade. However there have been flashes of brilliance opening up holes for Walker in that regard. As Cross and Lucas proceed to develop with the remainder of the road, run blocking ought to naturally enhance within the last seven weeks, which might be an enormous enhance for an already good offense.

3. Latest success with the move rush seems sustainable given personnel.

Throughout their dreadful defensive begin, the Seahawks solely produced eight mixed sacks as a staff, struggling to get to the quarterback whereas additionally getting steamrolled within the run recreation. As soon as the teaching employees adjusted to let the entrance line play extra aggressively with one-gapping methods, nevertheless, all the things modified. Taking part in an important position in fast enhancements throughout the board defensively, Uchenna Nwosu and Shelby Harris led the best way as Seattle racked up 19 sacks throughout a four-game successful streak. A few of that boiled all the way down to taking part in banged up offensive traces, together with Arizona twice with out star middle Rodney Hudson. Nonetheless, Clint Hurtt’s protection opened the 12 months with lofty aspirations speeding the passer because of an skilled, athletic group of tackles and edge rushers and the schematic changes lastly allowed that expertise to flourish. With Darrell Taylor and Poona Ford taking part in higher as of late, this group ought to have the ability to bounce again from a troublesome outing versus Tom Brady and the Bucs to show in a powerful second half harassing passers.

4. A gifted secondary will likely be additional bolstered by reinforcements.

If there’s one more reason to consider Seattle’s defensive position can proceed feasting on opposing quarterbacks, a younger, burgeoning secondary has shortly turn out to be the spine of Hurtt’s protection. Nonetheless in simply his third 12 months taking part in cornerback, Tariq Woolen has picked off 5 passes in his first 10 NFL video games, greater than another participant at his place thus far. Bettering as a tackler and contributing in a myriad of how, he is a entrance runner for Defensive Rookie of the Yr for a cause. Throughout from him, Mike Jackson would not have the interception totals, however he has solely allowed one landing and broke up seven passes in protection whereas giving up a completion proportion beneath 60 p.c. He is additionally been a stout tackler. Within the slot, rookie Coby Bryant has had points at instances in protection, however he is compelled 4 fumbles and grown up shortly ready he did not play in school at Cincinnati. That group will likely be additional fortified with the return of a wholesome Tre Brown, who may push Jackson or Bryant for instant taking part in time after impressing in 5 video games final season. If these kids preserve enhancing and Quandre Diggs rediscovers his Professional Bowl type alongside an rising star in Ryan Neal, the protection ought to solely get higher within the last two months.

5. A positive schedule options 5 video games in entrance of the boisterous 12s.

Over the previous a number of seasons, Seattle’s once-vaunted house subject benefit hasn’t paid the identical dividends for the staff it as soon as did. However beginning with a parade of boos in the direction of Russell Wilson in his homecoming within the season opener, the deafening roar has returned to Lumen Area and the venue has returned to its correct place among the many NFL’s hardest for opposing groups. That is an enormous deal in a good NFC West race as a result of followers will now have an opportunity to really make a distinction with San Francisco flying north for a Thursday night time recreation subsequent month and 4 house video games within the last 5 weeks. If the 12s convey their A recreation and perhaps assist set off a seismometer a time or two alongside the best way, that dramatically helps the Seahawks odds of stacking a bunch of wins and staying atop the division.

Why Seattle WON’T win NFC West

1. The Geno Smith revival tour collides with a December stumbling block.

In addition to Smith has performed by means of the primary 10 video games of the season, doubters will proceed to attend for the veteran to fall again to Earth and resemble the quarterback who misplaced a beginning job with the Jets years in the past and spent greater than half a decade as a backup. If he suffers from a big drop off in accuracy, sees a spike in turnovers, or just is not as efficient main his staff to factors down the stretch, Seattle might wrestle to win video games with a median protection and a working recreation that has been nice at instances whereas missing consistency. Whereas the Seahawks do not anticipate that to occur, it’s value noting he has not performed in additional than 5 video games in a season since 2014 and it isn’t out of the query his play may taper off a bit because the season drags into December.

2. A number of first-year starters crash into the dreaded “rookie wall” within the closing month.

So far, the Seahawks have relied on contributions from rookies greater than another staff within the league they usually have achieved nice success doing so. However after taking part in 14 or 15 video games at most on the school degree, the ultimate month could be treacherous for first-year gamers they usually can hit a proverbial wall experiencing the tail finish of the grind that’s an NFL season. This might particularly be the case for Cross, Lucas, and Woolen, who’ve been starters since Day 1 and already logged over 600 snaps apiece by means of 10 video games. That is closing in on the variety of snaps each Lucas and Cross had of their last school seasons and already exceeded probably the most snaps Woolen ever performed in a university season. Since changing Penny, Walker has averaged practically 20 carries per recreation over the previous 5 weeks and monitoring his workload needs to be a precedence as effectively. Coach Pete Carroll would not appear overly fearful in regards to the play of Seattle’s rookies tailing off and felt the bye got here at an ideal time to fight such a difficulty, however admitted coaches are retaining an in depth eye on them to make sure they don’t seem to be displaying indicators of being overloaded.

3. Accidents at key positions take a toll on a roster with depth limitations.

Like each different staff within the league, the Seahawks have needed to push ahead with a number of high quality gamers taking place to harm within the first half of the season, together with security Jamal Adams and working again Rashaad Penny. Neither of these gamers is predicted to return this season, however Ken Walker III and Ryan Neal have stepped up as their replacements and performed at a excessive degree, permitting the staff to not miss a beat with out them. Harm luck is a large a part of the equation relating to which groups make deep playoff runs and whereas Seattle has overcome accidents comparable to those to Adams and Penny, if a couple of extra key gamers go down within the last seven weeks, depth may turn out to be an actual drawback that threatens probabilities of hanging on to seize a division title and even clinch a playoff spot.

4. A leaky run protection continues to be exploited with gap-heavy offensive schemes.

As a part of their wholesale defensive enhancements beginning in Week 6, the Seahawks turned the nook stuffing the run, permitting 62 or fewer speeding yards to non-quarterbacks throughout a four-game successful streak. However beginning up entrance, the unit regressed two weeks in the past permitting the Buccaneers’ thirty second ranked speeding offense to rack up 161 yards on the bottom, placing their struggles with run matches and missed tackles again to the forefront as a possible Achilles heel. Within the first 5 video games, Seattle yielded 170 speeding yards per recreation, letting opponents gash them at will. Whereas it appears unlikely the protection will return to that type within the second half, the loss in Munich confirmed opponents can nonetheless management video games towards them with the bottom recreation and that does not bode effectively with video games towards San Francisco and Kansas Metropolis nonetheless on the schedule if they cannot determine issues out.

5. Luck on particular groups runs out, resulting in essential errors in shut video games.

After a dismal preseason, Seattle has by and huge had one of many higher, extra constant particular groups items within the league. Coach Larry Izzo’s group ranks sixth in DVOA per Soccer Outsiders, lead by a near-perfect efficiency from kicker Jason Myers, who has made all however one in every of his subject aim makes an attempt and gone 5 for 5 from 50-plus yards this 12 months. The staff additionally ranks first in DVOA for kickoffs because of a solid of gifted cowl guys comparable to Nick Bellore and undrafted rookie Joey Blount. Myers’ effectivity and the effectiveness on kick and punt protection items has helped the Seahawks an excellent deal, but when there’s any regression within the kicking recreation or accidents strike the duvet items, that might current a considerable drawback for a staff that can possible want to have the ability to end shut video games to remain in first place.

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