San Francisco Giants Farm System Ranking Takes Hit at Midseason

The San Francisco Giants dropped a few spots in ESPN’s newest farm system rankings, which were based on the MLB Draft, the trade deadline and system graduates.

The Giants’ drop, to some degree, is based on a good thing — quality players graduated from their system.

Those graduates, based on Major League service time, including outfielder Tyler Fitzgerald, pitcher Kyle Harrison and pitcher Keaton Winn. Fitzgerald is having a huge second half of the season, while Harrison is a mainstay in the rotation. Winn is on the 60-day injured list.

Based on those graduations and other factors, the Giants dropped from No. 15 in the preseason to No. 20. That’s based on the system’s surplus value. In the preseason that value was $207 million and it is now $172 million.

So what is surplus value? FanGraphs calculated it based on several factors.

First, the site used historical data to determine what each prospect would do in the Majors if called up. Then, the system used that projection to determine what each player would make during their six controllable years as MLB players. Then, the site added up that value to reach the surplus value for each organization.

The departures of Fitzgerald, Harrison and Winn certainly had an impact. But another pitcher — Hayden Birdsong — is back with the Giants and if he pitches out the season he may graduate from the rankings, too.

San Francisco blunted the loss of some of that surplus value with some of the trades it made at the deadline. For instance, the Giants turned veteran pitcher Alex Cobb into left-handed pitching prospect Jacob Bresnahan, who immediately became the Giants’ No. 23 prospect per Baseball America.

Another new Top 30 prospect for San Francisco is third baseman Sabin Ceballos, who is No. 25. He came to the Giants as part of the deal that sent outfielder Jorge Soler and pitcher Luke Jackson to the Atlanta Braves.

The rise of other prospects in the system could help boost future value, too. Last year’s first-round pick, first baseman Bryce Eldredge, played in the MLB Futures Game last month at All-Star weekend. He is considered the Giants’ No. 1 prospect. He’s already been promoted once this season and he could earn another promotion to Double-A this season.

ESPN also took note of two draft picks that the Giants approached differently when it came to signing them. San Francisco went under-slot with first-round pick James Tibbs III and called him one of the draft’s “riskiest” picks, while going over slot for Dakota Jordan, a player ESPN wrote had “the best tools in the draft.”