San Francisco Giants 2024 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and whether there’s ever enough pitching

The San Francisco Giants have slipped from 107 wins in 2021 to 81 in 2022 to 79 last season. In an attempt to arrest this pattern of decline, lead decision-maker Farhan Zaidi has positioned the Giants as one of the most active teams of the winter. To improve his club’s chances of getting back in the playoffs — likely via wild-card berth given that they share division with the Dodgers — Zaidi has signed the likes of Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jordan Hicks, and, just this week, Blake Snell, among others. As well, the Giants swung a trade for Robbie Ray and replaced Gabe Kapler in the dugout with new manager Bob Melvin. That’s a lot of churn and investment, and there’s mounting pressure for those moves to pay off and, yes, yield a postseason berth. 

Will that happen? A deeper dive into the current state of the 2024 Giants may shed some light. Let’s undertake that right now. 

Win total projection, odds

• 2023 record: 79-83 (fourth in NL West)
• 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 82.5 
• World Series odds (via SportsLine): +6000

Projected lineup

1. Jung Hoo Lee, CF
2. Thairo Estrada, 2B
3. LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B
4. Jorge Soler, DH
5. Michael Conforto, LF
6. Matt Chapman, 3B
7. Mike Yastrzemski, RF
8. Patrick Bailey, C
9. Marco Luciano, SS

Last season, the Giants ranked 24th in MLB in runs scored and 26th in OPS. That obviously needs to improve, and the hope for the Giants is that Lee gives them a much-needed dose of OBP and contact at the top of the lineup — more on that in a moment. Meantime, Soler and Chapman should improve the Giants’ problems versus lefties and in terms of power. It’s entirely possible that veteran NRI Nick Ahmed emerges as the starting shortstop, at least to start the season. 

Projected rotation

1. Logan Webb, RHP
2. Blake Snell, LHP
3. Kyle Harrison, LHP
4. Jordan Hicks, RHP
5. Keaton Winn, RHP

The San Fran rotation in 2023 placed 10th in MLB with an ERA of 4.12. That rotation also ranked an impressive fourth in the majors with a K/BB ratio of 3.84. Notable losses from last year include Anthony DeSclafani, Sean Manaea, Alex Wood, and Jakob Junis. 

Projected bullpen

• Closer: RHP Camilo Doval
• Setup: RHP Tyler Rogers, LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Luke Jackson
• Middle: RHP Ryan Walker, LHP Juan Sanchez
• Long: RHP Daulton Jefferies

Last year’s pen was 14th in MLB with a relief ERA of 3.92 and fourth with a relief K/BB ratio of 3.03. Like all teams, there’s been a substantial level of bullpen turnover. There’s really no call for such details, though, just as there’s no call for further discussion of the Giants’ bullpen. It will probably be fine, much like you. 

Is there enough starting pitching?

Logan Webb is a certifiable ace at the front end, and the late signing of reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell gives them a true co-ace. But what about the remainder of the Giants’ rotation for 2024? As noted, Manaea, Wood, Junis, and DeSclafani are gone, and they were all varying degrees of useful last season across a combined 44 starts. Hicks is new to the fold, and he’s got one of the biggest fastballs (sinker, actually) in the game today. However, Hicks is primarily a reliever, and the only time he tried his hand at starting the results over eight starts for the Cardinals in 2022 were hardly encouraging. It’s difficult to imagine Hicks this season will be able to handle a starter’s workload while also being effective. 

Elsewhere, Robbie Ray probably won’t be available until the second half of the season as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Tristan Beck recently underwent vascular surgery after being diagnosed with an aneurysm in his upper arm. He’s still weeks from even throwing, and he doesn’t yet have a timetable for his return. Alex Cobb is still recovering from offseason hip surgery, and Keaton Winn is well behind schedule after suffering elbow discomfort early in spring training. It should be apparent that the Giants have serious depth concerns, mostly because of all those injuries.

Will Lee give the Giants what they need at the top of the order?

The Giants’ priciest move of the offseason was the six-year, $113 million pact they forged with Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. Lee, to state the obvious, is vital to the Giants’ hopes in 2024 and beyond. He’ll man the critical position of center, and the hope is that he’ll give San Fran on-base skills as the leadoff hitter. Lee has good bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline, but the question is how his power — or lack thereof — will translate in making the leap from KBO to MLB. His maximum exit velocity makes him a peer of Andrew Benintendi and Robbie Grossman, and if you exclude his 23-homer effort in 2022, Lee averaged just seven home runs per season in his other six years in the KBO. Generally speaking, hitters do not add power when jumping from the KBO to MLB. This isn’t to say that the Giants need Lee to be a leading home run threat at the No. 1 spot, but they do need him to drive the ball enough to be a viable hitter. The guess here is that Lee will pass muster, but it’s a bit of an unknown going into 2024. 

What would make for a successful season?

Before he inked an extension in late October through the 2026 season, Zaidi was presumed to be under some degree of pressure following a second-straight middling campaign and repeated failures to land a marquee free agent. So, no, Zaidi’s job very likely doesn’t hinge upon getting the Giants back to the postseason this year, but there does seem to be a level of impatience with regard to their on-field results. As such, the Giants need to be part of the 2024 playoff fray in order for this season to be a success. As noted above, there’s almost no chance that they’ll win the NL West, not with the juggernaut Dodgers around. The expanded 12-team playoff field means there’s now a third wild-card spot in each league, so that lowers the bar. Still, the Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies, one or more NL Central teams, and possibly even the Mets figure to have realistic designs on a wild-card spot, which means it’s probably going to be a competitive jumble for those three spots. It’ll be a challenge for the Giants, but they need to make it happen.