San Francisco 49ers favored at home vs. Los Angeles Rams – Week 4, 2022 odds and pick

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports activities

The San Francisco 49ers offense was impotent, much more so after dropping deal with Trent Williams, earlier than dropping by a degree on the Denver Broncos in Week 3. Will Kyle Shanahan bounce again and proceed his common season dominance over Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4 beneath the intense lights of Monday Night time Soccer? Right here we talk about the percentages and evaluation from a betting perspective.

• When: Monday October third, 2022 at 5:15pm PT (ESPN)
• The place: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
• Line: 49ers -1.5, o/u 42.5

Los Angeles Rams

After getting steamrolled by the Buffalo Payments in Week 1, the Los Angeles Rams have received two straight, most not too long ago a 20-12 win within the desert over the Arizona Cardinals in a recreation that was by no means as shut as the ultimate rating would possibly point out.

After three weeks, Los Angeles ranks eighth in complete DVOA (defense-adjusted worth over common) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at 5.4 %, 18th in offensive DVOA at -6.1 % with a sixteenth ranked offensive move DVOA at 5.2 % and 14th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -3.2 %. The Rams protection is rated sixteenth in defensive DAVE at -0.3 % with a twenty second rated defensive move DVOA at 16.4 % and 4th rated defensive rush DVOA at -30.6 %.

Matthew Stafford is twentieth in defense-adjusted yards above substitute (DYAR) at 49 and thirteenth in complete QBR at 51.1 with 4 landing passes, 5 interceptions and a 72.6 completion proportion. LA’s offensive line is twenty second in run blocking with 4.15 adjusted line yards and twenty fifth in move safety with adjusted sack charge of 8.5 %. The Rams’ defensive position is tenth towards the run with 4.17 adjusted line yards and twenty first with an adjusted sack charge of 6.1 %.

The Rams have an ESPN Soccer Energy Index (FPI) of three.2 and are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 to the over/beneath. Amongst Rams starters, heart Brian Allen is out, guard Tremayne Anchrum has been positioned on IR and cornerback David Lengthy Jr. is questionable for Week 4.

San Francisco 49ers

One other week and one other quarterback controversy for the San Francisco 49ers, as armchair NFL analysts had been fast to rage on Jimmy Garoppolo for stepping out of bounds for a security, for lacking Deebo Samuel on a wide-open go route, for complaining about performs in the course of the recreation and for smiling at a former teammate after the sport in San Francisco’s 10-11 loss, declaring with unequivocal confidence that Trey Lance would have overwhelmed the Denver Broncos at Mile Excessive.

After three weeks, San Francisco ranks tenth in complete DAVE at 8.4 %, twenty third in offensive DVOA at -12.0 % with a nineteenth ranked offensive move DVOA at 3.9 % and twentieth ranked offensive rush DVOA at -16.2 %. The 49er protection is rated third in defensive DVOA at -28.5 % with a fifth rated defensive move DVOA at -24.7 % and third rated defensive rush DVOA at -32.6 %.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 18th in defense-adjusted yards above substitute (DYAR) at 84 and twenty ninth in complete QBR at 28.9 with 2 landing passes, 1 interception and a 62.0 completion proportion. San Francisco’s offensive line is twenty first in run blocking with 4.20 adjusted line yards and twenty third in move safety with adjusted sack charge of 8.0 %. The Niners’ defensive position is fifth towards the run with 3.36 adjusted line yards and third with an adjusted sack charge of 10.2 %.

The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of -1.2 and are 1-2 ATS and 0-3 to the over/beneath. Amongst 49ers starters, heart Daniel Brunskill is out, deal with Trent Williams is out, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is out, Jimmie Ward stays on IR and defensive deal with Arik Armstead is questionable for Week 4.

Prediction

Previous to dropping 17-20 within the NFC championship recreation final season, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers had received six straight towards the Rams. The Niners have lined 6 of the final 7 instances these two groups have met, going 2-5 to the over/beneath throughout that span. So primarily based on these tendencies, can we anticipate one other 49ers win towards their division rivals from Los Angeles this Monday evening, similar to the final Monday evening recreation between these squads at Levi’s?

Other than its efficiency towards a hapless Seattle Seahawks protection, San Francisco’s offense has seemed to be stagnant, missing a constant working recreation and explosive performs. Now the offense will lose considered one of its greatest gamers in Trent Williams and it is onerous to fathom how the working recreation will get again on monitor or have the next frequency of explosive performs with out him.

Equally, the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive line has been riddled with accidents and weak, with Matthew Stafford being sacked 9 instances and throwing 5 interceptions to this point this season. Apart from its output towards a bottom-tier protection in Atlanta, the Rams offense solely mustered 10 factors towards Buffalo and 20 factors towards the thirty first ranked protection in Arizona.

On the opposite aspect of the ball, San Francisco’s protection is taking part in like among the finest models within the NFL and Los Angeles’ protection is acting at the next degree than its offense proper now, with each groups rating within the prime 4 in dashing protection DVOA.

Final week we famous that each groups featured sturdy defenses and had gone beneath in all of their video games however had been scared off betting the beneath as a result of steam, however we is not going to overthink issues this week. With each groups taking part in with shaky offensive traces and weak dashing assaults, stronger defenses in a divisional recreation and mixing to go 1-5 to the over/beneath to this point this season, and prime time unders persevering with to money, we’re going with the beneath in Week 4. This line opened between 46 to 48 and has been getting smashed all the best way all the way down to 41.5 at some books, however there are nonetheless a 42 and 42.5 accessible.

Decide: Beneath 42.5

2022 season ATS: 2-2

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