Trading back has always been an intriguing draft strategy for the 49ers in a year where they’re unlikely to find a top-end player at their biggest position of need with the 31st overall pick. Moving back a few spots and stockpiling more picks while also not needing to reach for a player in Round 1 could ultimately be more beneficial in the immediate and long-term futures for San Francisco.
A good illustration of why there could be several opportunities for the 49ers to trade back comes via ESPN analytics’ draft predictor, which laid out the players most likely to be taken with the 31st overall selection. That doesn’t mean San Francisco will definitely be making the pick, this is just the player most likely to go with that pick regardless of which team ultimately makes it.
Here are the 10 players most likely to go 31st overall per ESPN:
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Yes. Mitchell has some high-end traits that could be enticing to the 49ers, especially if they wind up moving Brandon Aiyuk in this year’s draft. Not that Mitchell is a similar player, but Aiyuk’s exit would create a pretty gaping hole on the depth chart.
Chance he’s taken: ~ 7.75 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Probably not. They’ve never taken a cornerback earlier than the third round under general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan. If McKinstry’s name gets called with the 31st pick it likely means the 49ers have traded out.
Chance he’s taken: ~ 7.25 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Worthy has different, game-changing speed the 49ers don’t really have in their receiving corps. It’s easy to see how Shanahan could fall in love with what Worthy can do with the ball in his hands. On the other hand, this might be a bit of a reach even after Worthy set the NFL combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash.
Chance he’s taken: ~ 6.25 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Definitely! Of all the WRs who might fall to San Francisco, McConkey is the one who makes the most sense for them. He can play outside or in the slot, and he’s almost always open which would give quarterback Brock Purdy another go-to pass catcher in big situations.
Chances he’s taken: ~ 5.0 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Absolutely! Guyton is in the second tier of this tackle class, but he has good enough size and athleticism to hang in Shanahan’s offense. If San Francisco is set on picking an OT in the first round it’s easy to see them liking what Guyton brings now and in the future.
Chances he’s taken: ~ 4.5 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
In theory they could, but it’s hard to envision them going with a defensive back in Round 1 with so many other needs stacked up. Perhaps they really like a player with DeJean’s athleticism as a safety with Talanoa Hufanga entering the final year of his contract. If DeJean is the pick though the 49ers have likely traded out.
Chances he’s taken: ~ 4.3 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Rakestraw is a really fun player who fits the 49ers’ defensive ethos. They don’t take CBs in Round 1 though historically, and it’s unlikely they’d start with Rakestraw.
Chance he’s taken: ~ 4.3 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Absolutely. They might even run to the podium to turn in the draft card. Newton is a force as a pass rusher with enough run-stuffing chops to work as a potential Arik Armstead replacement in the next couple of seasons.
Chance he’s taken: ~ 4.25 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
They sure would. Robinson has an elite first step that might make defensive line coach Kris Kocurek salivate. There’s some required development for Robinson, but he’s at minimum a rotational pass rusher out the gate for the 49ers.
Chances he’s taken: ~4.1 percent
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Would the 49ers pick him?
Yes, for sure. Morgan is an interesting prospect since some analysts project him as a guard in the NFL. If that’s the case for the 49ers they may want to trade back and see if Morgan is still around in the second sometime. If they view him as a long-term tackle on either the right or left side though they’d not hesitate to call his name on Draft Night.
Chances he’s taken: ~ 4.0 percent