San Francisco, CA
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-28-2024
The Detroit Lions will play the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium in the NFC Championship Game. Kickoff between the Super Bowl contenders is at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Detroit (14-5 SU, 13-6 ATS, and 12-7 O/U) beat Tampa Bay 31-23 last weekend. The Lions were outgained but won the turnover and time of possession battles. Detroit is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS on the road.
San Francisco (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS, and 9-8-1 O/U) beat Green Bay 24-21 last weekend. The 49ers narrowly outgained the Packers but won the turnover battle and converted 10 of their 16 third-down attempts. SF is 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS at home.
The 49ers are seven-point spread favorites and the game total is 51.5 points.
Injury Report
Lions: TE James Mitchell, CB Jerry Jacobs, and G Jonah Jackson are out. WR Kalif Raymond (knee) is questionable and C Frank Ragnow (knee) is probable.
49ers: TE Ross Dwelley, WR Danny Gray, and DL Clelin Ferrell are out. WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) is questionable.
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Is Detroit America’s Team?
The Lions earned a trip to the NFC title game with an impressive string of victories. They were blessed by Detroit faithful and adopted as America’s underdog this season, winning with toughness and talent. Will they finish the job by defeating the frontrunner 49ers?
Detroit scores 27.1 points per game (5th) and averages 394.8 total yards (3rd), including 258.9 passing yards (2nd) and 135.9 rushing yards (5th). It converts 41.3 percent of its third-down attempts (9th) and scores a touchdown on 66.2 percent of its red zone trips (2nd).
The Lions give up 23.2 points (23rd) and 336.1 total yards (19th) per game, including 247.4 passing yards (27th) and 88.8 rushing yards (2nd). They accumulated 40 sacks and 12 interceptions during the regular season. Detroit’s opponents convert 36.7 percent of their third-down attempts (10th) and find the end zone on 64.4 percent of their visits to the red zone (29th).
“It’s been special to watch.”
Ben Johnson on #OnePride showing up on the road this season 💙 pic.twitter.com/IzNF0BMfrh
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 25, 2024
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The 49ers are heavy favorites for a reason
The Niners found a way to the NFC Championship without starting a top draft pick at quarterback, relying instead on “Mr. Irrelevant.” QB Brock Purdy’s unexpected rise to stardom aside, San Francisco is a veteran squad with star talent all over the field. Has it gone as far as it can without an elite signal-caller, though?
San Francisco scores 28.9 points per game (3rd) and averages 398.4 total yards (2nd), including 257.9 passing yards (4th) and 140.5 rushing yards (3rd). It converts 48.7 percent of its third downs (3rd) and finds the end zone on 67.6 percent of its visits to the red zone (1st).
The Niners surrender 17.5 points (3rd) and 303.9 total yards (8th) per game, including 214.2 passing yards (14th) and 89.7 rushing yards (3rd). They accumulated 48 sacks and 22 interceptions during the regular season. San Francisco’s opponents convert 41.6 percent of their third-down attempts (27th) and score a touchdown on 53.0 percent of their red zone trips (12th).
Eyes on the prize. #DoItForTheBay x @united pic.twitter.com/2vxARjZFQ9
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 25, 2024
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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The Lions’ offense won’t be up to the task, forcing them to leave their Super Bowl dreams on the tarmac on Sunday night. The visitors have not fared as well outdoors this season, averaging 17.8 points in open-air stadiums (five games) compared to 30.7 points per game indoors. Most of those games were played in good weather conditions, too. They have also come up short on the road, scoring nearly six fewer points per game.
The 49ers have held their opponents to 21 points or less in 13 of 18 games this season. They will put relentless heat on QB Jared Goff, whose own outdoor struggles are well-known, forcing the Lions signal-caller into check-downs, throwaways, or risky decisions. With Goff likely to be conservative in those scenarios, Detroit may focus more on the ground game in hopes of finding success against the Niners’ run defense. While SF allowed 4.2 yards per carry, the Lions will be too one-dimensional to keep up with the 49ers’ electric offense.
Prediction: San Francisco -7.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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As I mentioned earlier, Goff won’t be able to drive the football down the field. He will be cautious, forcing Detroit into a conservative offensive game plan to wear down the Niners’ below-average run defense. While this may be the best course of action in a vacuum, I don’t envision it leading to big chunk plays or opening up the passing game via play-action on the road in a conference championship atmosphere.
As talented as the 49ers’ offense can be, there’s no denying the impact a limited or unavailable Samuel will have on their game plan. I predict the home team will manage to get out to a sizable first-half lead with the Lions unable to create scoring opportunities, prompting the Niners to lean on their ground game in the second half. This slow-paced attack — they run the slowest-tempo offense in terms of seconds per play — will work in the under’s favor one way or another. If it’s successful, it will drain the game clock, but if Detroit’s talented run-stop unit rises to the occasion, these teams will end up punting the ball back and forth until the final whistle blows.
Prediction: Under 51.5